Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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47

Noah Juulsen

Vancouver Canucks Defense

Fifty-four games last season, against 68 in his first five.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18MTL23123+14000333.019:25
2018-19MTL21145+56000224.517:07
2020-21FLA4000-3000050.011:58
2021-22VAN8022-4000060.014:41
2022-23VAN12000+1600050.014:58
2023-24VAN54167-122000303.314:54
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—12231417-1380001013.016:02

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

54 games, 1 goal and 6 assists for 7 points, 22 penalty minutes, 14:54 a night and minus-1. He took 50.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 698 minutes, the 53rd percentile, and his ice went 25-25 against an expectation of 24.59-24.48.

Level at both ends. Twenty-five goals for and 25 against on a fifty per cent chance share is a third-pairing defenceman doing exactly what the ice said he should.

The Finesse Game

55 attempts at a median of 57 feet with 85 per cent of them from beyond forty and 4 per cent from inside twenty, 28 of those on goal, converted at 3.3 per cent against a career 2.97 across 101 shots.

Three career goals and 14 assists in 122 games. Eighty-five per cent of his attempts came from beyond forty feet and half of them did not reach the net; there is no offensive part of this game and none is asked for.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 201 and took 22 penalty minutes.

Thirty-eight career penalty minutes in 122 games. He defends through contact and clears his own crease, and he does it without the penalty totals a third-pairing defenceman usually collects doing it.

The Intangibles

Twenty-sixth overall in 2015 by Montreal, six seasons, and Vancouver is his third organisation.

A career minus-1 in 122 games. He was a first-round pick who played 68 games in his first five seasons and 54 in his sixth, and he is 27.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He defends through contact and clears his own crease, and he does it without the penalty totals a third-pairing defenceman usually collects doing it.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Eighty-five per cent of his attempts came from beyond forty feet and half of them did not reach the net; there is no offensive part of this game and none is asked for.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 698 minutes

Expected goals
50.1%
54th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.5%
31st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 25 for, 25 against. Expected: 24.6 and 24.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
51st
Numbers
54th

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 54 games

Top speed
20.7 mph
14th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.07 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.16 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.3 mph
61st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 698 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VAN took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.1% — 2.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 698 minutes at five-on-five — 31st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ian Cole55.6%46.3%53.4%
Nikita Zadorov48.3%51.1%50.2%
Conor Garland50.2%50.1%62.7%

55.6% together, 46.3% for him apart and 53.4% for Cole apart. He was worse away from Cole, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Cole did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

55 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 4 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 85% from beyond forty.