Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

21

Nils Hoglander

Vancouver Canucks Left Wing

Twenty-four goals on 120 shots, at 5-9.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21VAN56131427-41610111811.015:27
2021-22VAN6010818-6241001327.613:05
2022-23VAN25369-460002910.312:03
2023-24VAN80241236+235100512020.012:06
2024-25 so far
Career221504090+99720639912.513:13

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 24 goals and 12 assists for 36 points, 51 penalty minutes, 12:06 a night and plus-23, with 5 game-winners. He took 54.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 920 minutes, the 84th percentile, and his ice went 52-28 against an expectation of 39.08-32.72.

Thirteen goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and five goals of goaltending above them. Twenty-four goals in twelve minutes a night is a career high by eleven and it came at a 20 per cent shooting rate.

The Finesse Game

169 attempts at a median of 15 feet with 64 per cent of them from inside twenty and 11 per cent from beyond forty, 115 of those on goal, converted at 20.0 per cent against a career 12.53 across 399 shots.

Fifty career goals and 40 assists in 221 games. A fifteen-foot median attempt with 64 per cent of them from inside twenty feet is a 5-9 winger who plays the whole shift below the dots; twenty per cent of 120 shots will not repeat, but the location of them will.

The Physical Game

He is 5-9 and 185 and took 51 penalty minutes.

Ninety-seven career penalty minutes in 221 games. He is short and thick and forechecks into people twice his reach, and fifty-one penalty minutes in twelve minutes a night is the rate of a man who never stops.

The Intangibles

Fortieth overall in 2019 by Vancouver, four seasons, one organisation, and 90 points in 221 games.

A career plus-9 in 221 games. He is 23, he had scored 26 goals in his first three seasons put together, and he scored 24 last season on the fourth line.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 920 minutes

Expected goals
54.4%
84th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.1%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 28 against. Expected: 39.1 and 32.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
84th

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 920 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VAN took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.4% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 920 minutes at five-on-five — 49th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Elias Pettersson61.1%49.9%49.8%
Quinn Hughes58.5%51.2%53.9%
Filip Hronek53.5%55.1%50.8%

61.1% together, 49.9% for him apart and 49.8% for Pettersson apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

169 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 24 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 64% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.