Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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21

Nils Hoglander

Vancouver Canucks Left Wing

Twenty-four goals on 120 shots, at 5-9.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21VAN56131427-41610111811.015:27
2021-22VAN6010818-6241001327.613:05
2022-23VAN25369-460002910.312:03
2023-24VAN80241236+235100512020.012:06
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—221504090+99720639912.513:13

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 24 goals and 12 assists for 36 points, 51 penalty minutes, 12:06 a night and plus-23, with 5 game-winners. He took 54.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 920 minutes, the 84th percentile, and his ice went 52-28 against an expectation of 39.08-32.72.

Thirteen goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and five goals of goaltending above them. Twenty-four goals in twelve minutes a night is a career high by eleven and it came at a 20 per cent shooting rate.

The Finesse Game

169 attempts at a median of 15 feet with 64 per cent of them from inside twenty and 11 per cent from beyond forty, 115 of those on goal, converted at 20.0 per cent against a career 12.53 across 399 shots.

Fifty career goals and 40 assists in 221 games. A fifteen-foot median attempt with 64 per cent of them from inside twenty feet is a 5-9 winger who plays the whole shift below the dots; twenty per cent of 120 shots will not repeat, but the location of them will.

The Physical Game

He is 5-9 and 185 and took 51 penalty minutes.

Ninety-seven career penalty minutes in 221 games. He is short and thick and forechecks into people twice his reach, and fifty-one penalty minutes in twelve minutes a night is the rate of a man who never stops.

The Intangibles

Fortieth overall in 2019 by Vancouver, four seasons, one organisation, and 90 points in 221 games.

A career plus-9 in 221 games. He is 23, he had scored 26 goals in his first three seasons put together, and he scored 24 last season on the fourth line.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    71.6% of his attempts in the slot, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “A fifteen-foot median attempt with 64 per cent of them from inside twenty feet is a 5-9 winger who plays the whole shift below the dots; twenty per cent of 120 shots will not repeat, but the location of them will.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He is short and thick and forechecks into people twice his reach, and fifty-one penalty minutes in twelve minutes a night is the rate of a man who never stops.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 920 minutes

Expected goals
54.4%
84th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.1%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 28 against. Expected: 39.1 and 32.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
84th

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
79th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.07 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.96 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.1 mph
98th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 920 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VAN took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.4% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 920 minutes at five-on-five — 49th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Elias Pettersson61.1%49.9%49.8%
Quinn Hughes58.5%51.2%53.9%
Filip Hronek53.5%55.1%50.8%

61.1% together, 49.9% for him apart and 49.8% for Pettersson apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

169 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 24 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 64% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.