Seattle Kraken

What the Quant Says

The second-worst attack in the league by process. 31st in even-strength expected goals per 60 at 2.27, 30th in chance share at 46.0 per cent, and 31st in shot attempts at 45.4.

Jordan Eberle, at 36 and in his 1,140th game, led the club with 55 points and did it by taking 55 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet — the finisher's adjustment a player makes when the first step goes. Matty Beniers put up 50 at 23. Jared McCann scored 20 in 52 games and posted the best chance share on the roster at the 76th percentile. Chandler Stephenson had 49 points and the worst chance share of any regular skater in the National Hockey League — 37.7 per cent, and minus-24.

The young names are arriving: Shane Wright takes half his shots from inside 20, Berkly Catton is 20 and takes 47 per cent, Kaapo Kakko was plus-14 at the 12th percentile.

What the Scout Says

A collection of finishers who all get to their ice by timing rather than by taking it. Jordan Eberle reads the play early because at his age it is the only route left, and it works. Jared McCann has a quick, deceptive release and finds the soft spot rather than winning it — a long way out for the goals he scores, and the least dependable way to make a living. Chandler Stephenson is genuinely quick with soft hands in tight, and he does not use the speed to forecheck and does not defend with it.

The interesting players are younger. Kaapo Kakko protects the puck well below the goal line and has the best supporting rate on the club. Mackie Samoskevich has the puck skills of a first-round pick and a shot that has not caught up to them, and he avoids the interior and works the half-wall. Shane Wright wins draws, works the wall and is reliable without the puck, and the ordinary skating is why the ceiling talk has quieted. Berkly Catton is the best pure skater here — he separates through the neutral zone and changes pace with the puck on his stick, which is rare at 20 — and he is knocked off pucks by men and cannot hold the front of a net. Bobby McMann is the one straight-line power winger, and Ben Meyers gets to the interior more often than most fourth-liners his size.

What the Quant Says

21st in even-strength expected goals against, and a blue line where the ice tilted whenever anybody stepped on it. Adam Larsson played 1,509 5-on-5 minutes at the 11th percentile; Vince Dunn 1,441 at the twelfth with 44 points and minus-24; Ryan Lindgren 1,184 at the eleventh; Brandon Montour 22:34 a night at the 36th and minus-21.

4 defencemen taking the bulk of the minutes, none above the 36th percentile, is not a coincidence of deployment — it is what a team that attempts 45 per cent of the shots looks like from the back. Ryker Evans at 24 is the one under 30 who might grow into more. Jamie Oleksiak has gone to Vancouver.

What the Scout Says

3 skaters, 2 defenders, and not enough of either. Vince Dunn is the best puck-mover on the club by a distance — he skates out of trouble, carries through the neutral zone, and the outlet is quick and usually right — and he is beaten in front of his own net by size and does not clear it. Brandon Montour activates off the blue line as well as any defenceman in the league and is difficult to forecheck, and he defends by skating rather than by stopping people, which runs out of answers against a heavy forecheck in his own end. Ryker Evans is the third of the type and is still learning what to do with the puck once he has it.

The counterweight is 2 men. Adam Larsson exists to retrieve the puck and give it to somebody better, and he takes the hard minutes without ever seeming to mind what it does to his numbers. Ryan Lindgren clears the front of his own net at a weight that makes it expensive, and 60 penalty minutes is most of what that costs. Joshua Mahura skates well, closes gaps and loses net-front battles; Cale Fleury has been a seventh defenceman for 6 seasons across 3 organisations. This is a blue line that can leave its own zone and cannot keep anybody out of the paint.

What the Quant Says

The entire reason this club won games. Seattle's goaltending came in 16.6 goals better than the chances faced, 5th in the league — behind a team that gave up the ninth-most of them.

Philipp Grubauer stopped .9088 across 32 games; Joey Daccord .8959 across 47. Grubauer at 34 was materially the better of the 2 and took the smaller share. Nikke Kokko has 3 appearances at 21. This is a goaltending tandem being asked to paper over the 31st-ranked attack and the 22nd-ranked defence at once, and last season it very nearly managed it.

What the Scout Says

The reason the club was respectable, and it came from an unexpected direction. Joey Daccord is square more often than not, does not scramble, and handles the puck as well as almost any goaltender in the league — which on a club pinned in its own zone this often matters more than usual. A seventh-round pick, a long minor-league apprenticeship, and a father who coached goalies for a living.

Philipp Grubauer plays deep, reads the release, and relies on being in the right place rather than getting there quickly. The story is what happened around him: he signed the long contract as this club's first franchise goaltender, played badly enough for long enough that the city gave up on him entirely, went to the minors, and came back to outperform the man who replaced him across a full season rather than a hot fortnight. Whatever the depth chart says in October, last season did not agree with it.

What the Quant Says

27th at 6.98 expected goals per 60, on 4:38 a night, 23rd. A bottom-6 unit getting bottom-10 opportunity, on a club that cannot score at even strength either.

McCann led it with 7 power-play goals, Beniers 6, Stephenson 6, Eberle 4. There is no quarterback: Dunn and Montour are the offensive defencemen and both spent the season deeply under water. This is the phase where a club with no 5-on-5 identity would normally find goals, and Seattle does not.

What the Scout Says

A unit of finders rather than takers, which suits a man advantage better than it suits 5-on-5. Jordan Eberle works the slot and reads the seam early. Jared McCann's release is quick and deceptive enough to punish a killer who closes late. Mackie Samoskevich's assists come off the half-wall, which is exactly the ice a power play gives him.

Vince Dunn and Brandon Montour are both genuine movers from the point — Montour activates as well as anyone at the position — and the puck will get to where it is going. What the group is missing is a man who will stand in the blue paint and be cross-checked for 2 minutes. Bobby McMann goes through people rather than around them and is the closest thing to it; Curtis Douglas is 6-9 and cannot play at this pace. Berkly Catton and Matty Beniers both get to the right places and are moved out of them. It is a unit that will always look better on the entry than at the net front.

What the Quant Says

24th at 7.89 expected goals against per 60 — but Seattle was shorthanded just 4:08 a game, 31st in the league, one of the 2 most disciplined clubs in hockey.

That discipline is worth real goals and is the quiet strength of the roster: a poor kill that almost never takes the ice costs far less than the rate suggests. Lindgren's 60 penalty minutes are the highest among the regulars, and that is a modest number. With continuity at 82.3 per cent, eighth, this is largely the same team again — which given the process underneath is not obviously good news.

What the Scout Says

Honest, well-drilled and undersized. Frederick Gaudreau wins faceoffs, kills penalties and takes the defensive-zone start, and has done for 9 seasons. Matty Beniers wins draws, kills, and takes the hard shift. Ben Meyers forechecks with real speed and pressures the puck. Shane Wright is reliable without it. That is a proper set of forwards for the job.

The back end is where the shape works against it. Adam Larsson takes the hard minutes and Ryan Lindgren clears the crease, and after those 2 the club is asking men who defend by skating to hold ground they cannot hold — Dunn does not clear his own net front, Montour stops nobody, and Joshua Mahura loses those battles routinely. Dunn's 54 penalty minutes and Montour's 45 are the cost of defending that way, and Lindgren's 60 are the cost of doing it properly at his weight. A kill that has to concede the paint is a kill that lives or dies on the goaltending behind it, which is exactly what happened.