Seattle Kraken

What the Quant Says

217 goals, 29th in the league. Only Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago scored fewer, and all three of them finished at least twenty points behind Seattle.

Seattle created 2.467 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 25th, while taking 51.3 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 11th, and 50.8 per cent of the expected goals, 15th. It had the puck. It did nothing dangerous with it.

And then it scored 144 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 160.6 — a shortfall of 16.6, 28th in the league. Only Carolina, Chicago, Edmonton and San Jose lost more to their own finishing.

Fourteen of the fifteen men who played last season in Seattle finished below what their chances were worth. Jared McCann was the only exception.

Jared McCann scored 29 goals, Oliver Bjorkstrand 20 with 59 points, Jordan Eberle 17, Eeli Tolvanen 16, Matty Beniers 15 and Jaden Schwartz 13. Nobody on the roster reached thirty and nobody reached sixty points.

What the Scout Says

Six men between 13 and 29 goals, and nothing above that.

Jared McCann is 6-1 and 191 and took 308 attempts at a median of 32 feet, 207 of them on goal, converting 13.4 per cent against a career 12.36. He scored 40 two seasons ago and 29 last season, and he shoots from further out than anybody who scores that many should have to.

Oliver Bjorkstrand took 301 attempts at a 35-foot median with 36 per cent of them from beyond forty and finished minus-20 on 59 points — the largest disagreement between production and plus-minus on the club. Jordan Eberle and Jaden Schwartz each took better than half their attempts from inside twenty feet, the only two men on the club who did. Eberle is 34 with 299 career goals.

Jaden Schwartz is 5-10 and 185 and his median attempt was 16 feet. Matty Beniers is 6-2 and 181, 21, and put 42 per cent of his attempts inside twenty. Yanni Gourde is 5-9 and 173 with 402 career penalty minutes in 545 games.

What the Quant Says

Seattle allowed 2.398 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 8th in the league, and conceded 236 goals, 9th. This half of the club was genuinely good.

At five-on-five it conceded 146 goals against an expectation of 155.9 — ten better than the shots called for, and the club's goaltending came in 9.9 goals better than the chances it faced, 9th in the league.

Adam Larsson played 81 games at 22:57 and took 1,556 minutes at five-on-five, with his ice at 57-49 against an expectation of 58.50-62.33 — thirteen goals of goaltending above what the shots called for.

Vince Dunn had 11 goals and 35 assists in 59 games at 23:05. Will Borgen played all 82 at 17:35 with 22 assists and 65 penalty minutes. Jamie Oleksiak is 6-7 and 252 — the second-heaviest man in this edition — and played all 82 at 19:39.

Brandon Montour arrives from Florida with 8 goals and 25 assists in 66 games at 23:27, and a 53.5 per cent chance share that is the best figure any Seattle defenceman will carry into the season. Ryker Evans played 36 games at 19:11 at 22.

What the Scout Says

Eighth in the league at chance suppression, and a 6-7 defenceman playing every game of it.

Adam Larsson is 6-3 and 207 and played 81 games at 22:57, with 45 goals and 168 assists in 848 career games and a career shooting rate of 4.19 per cent. He defends by closing gaps early and finishing the check rather than by reaching, and 504 career penalty minutes in 848 games is what that costs.

Jamie Oleksiak is 6-7 and 252 — the second-heaviest man in this edition — and played all 82. There is no version of the net front he does not own. Will Borgen is 6-3 and took 78 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet with 65 penalty minutes.

Vince Dunn is 6-0 and 200 and had 46 points in 59 games at 23:05, with 183 career assists in 480 games and 306 penalty minutes. He is the one man on this blue line who carries the puck rather than moving it. Brandon Montour is 6-0 and 199 and had 73 points in Florida two seasons ago.

Ryker Evans is 22, was Seattle's own second-round pick in 2021, and played 36 games at 19:11.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 9.9 goals better than the chances it faced, 9th in the league, and it was the second-best thing about the season.

Joey Daccord went 19-18-11 with a .9156 and a 2.46 in 50 games, facing 1,374 shots, with 3 shutouts. He was the 199th man taken in the 2015 draft and had played 19 NHL games in total across his first four seasons before this one. He is 28 and his career line is a .9067 across 69 games.

Philipp Grubauer went 14-16-2 with an .8990 and a 2.85 in 36 games. That is his third straight season in Seattle below .900, after .8891 and .8946 in the two before it. His career .9105 across 344 games includes a .9225 in Colorado in 2020-21, and nothing since arriving has come near it.

A 2.46 goals-against average from the man who played fifty games is the number to keep. On a club that scored 217 goals it was not enough.

What the Scout Says

A seventh-round pick with a 2.46, and a veteran who has not been above .900 in three seasons here.

Joey Daccord is 6-2 and 201, born in Boston, and was the 199th man taken in the 2015 draft. He plays a calm, square, positionally driven game with very little wasted movement in it, tracks pucks through screens and controls what comes off him. Nineteen wins, eleven overtime losses and 3 shutouts in his first fifty-game season.

Philipp Grubauer is 6-1 and 188 and has a career .9105 across 344 games and 22 shutouts. He is quick and small for the modern position and relies on reading a play early rather than covering net, which worked in Colorado and has not since. Three straight Seattle seasons at .8891, .8946 and .8990.

The club got 9.9 goals of value out of its crease last season, ninth in the league, and almost all of it came from the man nobody drafted highly. That is the one thing on this roster that has gone better than anybody expected.

What the Quant Says

27th in the league at 6.390 expected goals per 60, over 5:00 a night, the sixteenth-most power-play time of any club. Ordinary volume, sixth-worst rate.

Jared McCann scored 9 power-play goals, Oliver Bjorkstrand 8, Jaden Schwartz 7, Matty Beniers 6, Jordan Eberle 6, Andre Burakovsky 5, Vince Dunn 4 and Eeli Tolvanen 1. Chandler Stephenson scored 4 in Vegas and Brandon Montour 1 in Florida.

Jordan Eberle has 69 career power-play goals in 1,018 games, the most on the club, and Jaden Schwartz 50 in 730. Jared McCann has 36 and Oliver Bjorkstrand 33.

Forty-six power-play goals from eight men and no unit anybody feared. Twenty-seventh by rate on the sixteenth-most ice is the definition of a power play that needs a shooter it does not have.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-seventh by rate on the sixteenth-most ice, and the club's leading power-play scorer shoots from thirty-five feet.

Jared McCann scored 9 power-play goals and has 36 in 586 career games. Oliver Bjorkstrand scored 8 and has 33 in 545, and 36 per cent of his attempts came from beyond forty feet, which is where his goals come from and why the unit looks the way it does.

Jaden Schwartz scored 7 and has 50 career power-play goals in 730 games, the second-most on the club. Jordan Eberle has 69 in 1,018, the most, and scored 6.

Matty Beniers scored 6 at 21 and has 12 in 167 career games. Vince Dunn scored 4 and has 17 in 480 — he runs the point and is the only defenceman here who does.

There is no net-front man on this power play and no one-timer worth setting up. Eight men scored on it and none of them frightened anybody.

What the Quant Says

21st in the league at 7.424 expected goals against per 60, over 4:32 a night — the second-fewest shorthanded minutes of any club in hockey.

That is the useful half. Seattle spent less time a man down than all but one club and killed at a below-average rate when it did, which is a discipline story rather than a personnel one.

Yanni Gourde and Jared McCann each scored 2 shorthanded, and Chandler Stephenson scored 2 in Vegas before he arrived.

Brandon Tanev has 10 career shorthanded goals in 473 games and Jared McCann 10 in 586. Yanni Gourde has 9 in 545 and Chandler Stephenson 8 in 495. Four men with thirty-seven shorthanded goals between them, on a kill that ranked twenty-first.

What the Scout Says

The second-fewest shorthanded minutes in the league, and a twenty-first-place rate on them.

Brandon Tanev is 6-0 and 189, undrafted, and has 10 career shorthanded goals in 473 games with 233 penalty minutes. He forechecks a man down the way he forechecks at even strength, which is flat out and without much regard for what happens next.

Jared McCann has 10 career shorthanded goals in 586 games and scored 2 last season. Yanni Gourde has 9 in 545 games and 402 penalty minutes at 5-9, and scored 2. Chandler Stephenson has 8 in 495 and scored 2 in Vegas.

Adam Larsson is 6-3 and blocks the middle of the ice at 22:57 a night. Jamie Oleksiak kills at 6-7 and 252.

Four forwards with thirty-seven career shorthanded goals between them, on a unit that finished twenty-first. The men are there; the rate says the structure a man down is not.