Seattle Kraken

What the Quant Says

247 goals, 16th in the league, and 26th at creating chances at even strength at 2.332 expected goals per 60. The gap between those two numbers is the season.

At five-on-five the club scored 164 goals against an expectation of 145.5 — 18.5 goals better, 5th-best finishing in the league. The conversion rates underneath it: Shane Wright at 20.9 per cent, Chandler Stephenson 17.8, Eeli Tolvanen 16.8, Matty Beniers 13.6, Jaden Schwartz 13.4. Wright's is the highest of any regular in this edition.

Jared McCann had 61 points, Chandler Stephenson 51, Jaden Schwartz 26 goals at 32 and Kaapo Kakko 44 points across two clubs — a career high by fourteen. Shane Wright scored 19 goals on 91 shots at 21.

None of the shooting percentages will repeat. The 29th-ranked chance share underneath them will.

What the Scout Says

A group of finishers on a club that cannot generate the chances for them.

Jordan Eberle takes 51 per cent of his shot attempts from inside 20 feet and 8 per cent from beyond 40 — the least perimeter profile of any forward here, at 35. Shane Wright takes 49 per cent from inside 20 and 8 per cent from beyond 40 at 21. Jaden Schwartz takes 46 per cent from inside 20 at 32. That is three generations of the same player.

Jared McCann is the opposite: 35 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 and only 25 from inside 20, and he led the club in scoring anyway, which is a fact about the shooting percentage rather than the method.

Kaapo Kakko is 6-1 and 215 and the puck-protection below the goal line is the best on the roster — 30 assists is the number that changed when Seattle traded for him. Matty Beniers wins the puck back in the offensive zone as well as any centre here.

What is missing is a carrier. Chandler Stephenson took 73 shots in 78 games, Tolvanen has 12 assists in 81, and nobody on the roster beats a defenceman one-on-one.

What the Quant Says

265 goals against, 24th in the league, and 23rd in even-strength expected goals against at 2.631 per 60. Consistently below average rather than broken.

Adam Larsson finished plus-22 on a club that was outscored by twenty, and his ice conceded 60 goals against an expectation of 61.87 — twelve fewer than the chances predicted. That is the largest defensive surplus on the roster and it came at 21:11 a night at 32.

Brandon Montour finished minus-22 — the worst on the club — and took 231 shots, more than any defenceman in this chapter by seven, and 70 penalty minutes, the most on the roster. His five-on-five ice actually came out ahead of the chances on both sides. The two extremes of the plus-minus column on this club belong to the two defencemen whose underlying seasons were most alike.

Jamie Oleksiak is 6-7 and 252 pounds — the heaviest defenceman in this edition — and nobody moves him. Under a heavy forecheck he chips it out rather than making a play, which is where the exits stop.

Ryan Lindgren was signed in the summer.

What the Scout Says

The most size on any blue line in this edition, and the least puck-movement to go with it.

Jamie Oleksiak at 6-7 and 252 and Adam Larsson at 6-3 take 76 and 77 per cent of their shot attempts from beyond 40 feet. Both clear a crease, both block shots, and neither carries the puck out of his own zone. Adam Larsson is very rarely beaten badly enough to reach — 31 penalty minutes in 82 games at twenty-one minutes a night — and his ice conceded twelve fewer goals than the chances predicted.

The puck game is Vince Dunn and Ryker Evans, both 6-0 and 200 or under. Dunn's 28 assists in 62 games is the best rate of any defenceman here; he retrieves under pressure, escapes the first forechecker by turning, and neither of them clears a crease.

Brandon Montour took 231 shots and 70 penalty minutes and is the only defenceman on the roster with an edge to him. Ryan Lindgren was signed in the summer: 6-0 and 194, blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league, and clears his crease against men thirty pounds heavier.

What the Quant Says

Joey Daccord went 27-23-5 with a .9056, a 2.75 average and 2 shutouts in 57 games, facing 1,599 shots — among the heaviest workloads in the league. He was 199th overall in 2015 and did not have an NHL job until he was 26.

The club's goaltending at five-on-five came in 11.1 goals worse than the chances faced, 23rd in the league, and almost none of that is his.

Philipp Grubauer went 8-17-1 with an .8752 and no shutouts in 26 games. It is the worst save percentage of his career by thirty points and the third consecutive season under .900. He was a Vezina finalist in Colorado in 2021 and signed a six-year contract that summer, and he has not been the same goaltender since the first month of it.

What the Scout Says

A seventh-round pick who has become the best thing on the roster, and a Vezina finalist whose career is ending in public.

Joey Daccord is 6-2 and 201 and technically the tidiest goaltender in this chapter. He is square almost without exception, the depth management is disciplined, and he does not travel further out than the shot requires. The rebound control is good and it is the reason 1,599 shots did not turn into a disaster. He handles the puck as well as any goaltender in this edition and starts breakouts himself, which on a blue line built out of Oleksiak and Larsson is worth real goals.

Philipp Grubauer is 6-1 and 188 and small for the modern position, which was never a problem when the technique was working. He plays deep and reads the play rather than covering the net with his body. The lateral recovery is the part that has gone — the second chance across the crease is a goal far more often than it used to be, and behind a club that is 23rd at suppressing chances there are a great many second chances.

What the Quant Says

31st in the league at 5.960 expected goals per 60, over 5:14 a night — the eighteenth-most power-play time of any club in hockey. More opportunity than almost anybody and the second-worst rate in the league to spend it on.

Shane Wright scored 7 power-play goals, Jaden Schwartz 6, Matty Beniers 5, Brandon Montour 5 and Kaapo Kakko 4. It is not personnel: Vince Dunn and Montour can both distribute from a point, Wright is a genuine net-front option at 21, and Schwartz has spent a career arriving in the slot without the puck.

It is the entry and the movement. On a club that draws this many penalties, a unit at 5.960 is the single most expensive thing on the roster, and Mason Marchment was acquired in the summer in part to give it 6-5 and 212 pounds in the paint.

What the Scout Says

The eighteenth-most power-play time in the league at the 31st-ranked rate, which is the most expensive line in this chapter.

The personnel is not obviously the problem. Vince Dunn and Brandon Montour both distribute from a point and Montour has a genuinely heavy shot — 231 attempts and 18 goals. Shane Wright goes to the net and takes the cross-check to stay there, and 7 of his 19 goals came a man up. Jaden Schwartz arrives in the slot without the puck and has done it for a decade.

What the unit does not have is anybody who beats a killing box off the entry, and it does not have a screen. Mason Marchment at 6-5 and 212 clears space in front of a net, which is the specific hole.

A club drawing this many penalties and converting at this rate is leaving more goals on the ice than any other single failure in this book.

What the Quant Says

26th in the league at 7.859 expected goals against per 60, over 4:07 a game — the 6th-least shorthanded time in hockey. A poor unit doing a small amount of work.

Adam Larsson and Jamie Oleksiak do the work in front of the net, which is 6-3 and 6-7 and about as much size as any club can put on a kill. Matty Beniers took 14 penalty minutes in 82 games and kills; Frederick Gaudreau took 8 in 82 for Minnesota and was signed in the summer to add another forward who can.

The discipline is genuinely good and the rate is genuinely bad, which usually points at structure rather than personnel.

What the Scout Says

Two very large defencemen, four disciplined forwards, and a below-average rate.

Adam Larsson and Jamie Oleksiak are the first pair. Between 6-3 and 6-7 there is not much room in front of that net, and both block shots and defend the rush by standing men up rather than by backing off.

Up front it is Matty Beniers, Jaden Schwartz and, from this season, Frederick Gaudreau — 8 penalty minutes in 82 games and a career built on making the simple play out of his own end. Tye Kartye kills and scored a shorthanded goal.

The workload is light because the roster does not foul. 4:07 a game is the 6th-least shorthanded time in hockey and the unit still finished 26th, which points at the structure rather than the men in it.