Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

2

Brian Dumoulin

Seattle Kraken Defense

One goal from eighty shots on goal, and 1,424 five-on-five minutes of not being noticed.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14PIT6011+1400030.019:14
2014-15PIT810102000425.015:40
2015-16PIT7901616+11140001010.018:53
2016-17PIT7011415014000781.320:33
2017-18PIT8051318-5300011024.920:37
2018-19PIT7632023+3120000993.021:02
2019-20PIT28178+1710010352.921:03
2020-21PIT4141014+1812000508.022:21
2021-22PIT7631518+2424000913.321:49
2022-23PIT8212425-416000821.220:38
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—54619120139+931460116452.920:39

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 24 assists in 82 games — 25 points — at 20:38 a night for Pittsburgh. Minus-4, 82 shots at 1.2 per cent, 16 penalty minutes, no power-play points.

25 points is a career high by two, in his tenth season.

50.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,424 minutes, the 51st percentile, with his ice at 52-70 against an expectation of 62.28-60.81 — ten goals short at the good end and nine over at the other, which on a club that finished last in the league in finishing is the ordinary experience and not his.

He started 49.9 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 45th percentile: 441 attacking draws against 442 defensive ones, which is as close to an exactly balanced deployment as this book records.

The Finesse Game

82 shots at a median of 50 feet, with 63 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty.

Beyond forty feet: 48 shots on goal and one goal — 2.08 per cent, below the league rate for defencemen of 3.17. From twenty to forty: 21 shots and none. Inside twenty: 11 shots and none. Eighty shots on goal in a season and one of them went in.

A 1.2 per cent shooting percentage. Nineteen goals in 546 career games at 2.95 per cent, which is one of the lowest figures any defenceman in this book carries into a tenth season.

120 tracked attempts, only 16 of them slap shots — a 13.3 per cent share, low for a defenceman — and 74 wrist shots. 89.6 mph at the 41st percentile.

The shot is soft, it is rarely a slap, and it does not go in. None of that is a criticism: 24 assists from a defenceman who never joins the rush is the entire offensive contribution and it is the right one.

The first pass is the skill. He takes the puck off the wall under pressure and moves it before the forecheck arrives, which is a harder thing than it looks and is why he has played twenty minutes a night in seven of the last eight seasons.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 215 pounds. Top speed 21.9 mph at the 29th percentile, 0.4 bursts above twenty a game at the 19th, 2.78 miles a game at the 67th.

Slow, heavy and positionally sound, which is the same description he would have got at twenty-four.

16 penalty minutes in 82 games is a remarkably low figure for a defenceman playing twenty-one minutes, and 146 in 546 career games says the same thing across a decade: he is almost never beaten badly enough to have to foul.

He defends with reach and body position rather than by closing, and at 6-4 the stick takes away the lane before the contact is needed.

The Intangibles

Fifty-first overall in 2009, the second round, ten seasons, 546 games, 139 points, and two Stanley Cups in Pittsburgh.

19 goals in a decade. The career has been the same season nine times: twenty minutes a night, a plus record when the club is good, twenty points, and no attention.

He is thirty-two, joining a club that gave up chances at the third-lowest rate in the league and needed a left-handed defenceman who does not need the puck.

What this file is worth is exactly what it has always been worth: the second defenceman on a pair, doing the half of the job nobody writes down.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.20 penalty minutes a game over 82, 7th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He defends with reach and body position rather than by closing, and at 6-4 the stick takes away the lane before the contact is needed.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He takes the puck off the wall under pressure and moves it before the forecheck arrives, which is a harder thing than it looks and is why he has played twenty minutes a night in seven of the last eight seasons.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,424 minutes

Expected goals
50.6%
57th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.8%
69th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 70 against. Expected: 62.3 and 60.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
57th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
60th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.39 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.78 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.6 mph
38th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with PIT · 1424 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
PIT took 53.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.6% — 2.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,424 minutes at five-on-five — 95th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Kris Letang52.2%49.5%54.8%
Sidney Crosby52.9%49.3%55.1%
Jake Guentzel51.6%50.1%55.1%

52.2% together, 49.5% for him apart and 54.8% for Letang apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

118 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 56 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 67% from beyond forty.