Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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35

Tristan Jarry

Pittsburgh Penguins Goaltender

A .9095 in forty-seven games, and a seventh season without once reaching sixty.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2016-17PIT101033.06025.880
2017-18PIT261462632.772687.908
2018-19PIT201173.50062.887
2019-20PIT3320121782.433985.921
2020-21PIT3925931002.7521100.909
2021-22PIT58341861382.4241711.919
2022-23PIT47241371282.9021414.909
2023-24 so far——————————
Career—20611760205172.65135984.914

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

24-13-7 in 47 games, .9095, 2.90, two shutouts on 1,414 shots.

30.1 shots a night behind a club that finished ninth in the league in five-on-five chance share and ninth in shot attempts. This was not a heavy workload by volume; it was a heavy workload by absence.

Pittsburgh’s goaltending was worth minus-3.0 goals against the chances it faced — fifteenth in the league, which is average to a tenth of a goal a month. The club missed the playoffs on a finishing record that was the worst in hockey, and the crease was not where it went wrong.

Seven seasons, 206 games, and 47 is the second-most he has played in any of them.

The Finesse Game

6-4 and 201 pounds, and a game built on depth and patience rather than on athleticism.

He plays deep in the crease and lets the shot come to him, which is why the save percentage is stable and why the second chance from the slot is where he is beaten. The rebound control is the weakest measurable part of the file.

The puck-handling is the specific asset, and on a blue line that plays Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson twenty-five minutes a night it is worth more here than it would be elsewhere: the outlet starts before the forecheck arrives.

The seasons read .8800, .9083, .8871, .9208, .9091, .9193 and .9095. The two figures above .919 came in 2019-20 and 2021-22 and are the reason he is a starter; the three seasons around them are the reason the question keeps being asked.

The honest reading is a goaltender who is a little above average when healthy and has never once been available for a full season.

The Intangibles

Forty-fourth overall in 2013, the second round, and seven seasons in one organisation.

206 games in seven years. He has never played sixty in a season and has twice missed most of one, and the club has now spent three consecutive springs finding out what its backup looks like.

He is twenty-eight, which is the age at which a goaltender’s record stops being a projection and starts being a description. What the file describes is real ability and an availability problem the club has not solved.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • puck-handlinga strength· starts the breakout himself

    “The puck-handling is the specific asset, and on a blue line that plays Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson twenty-five minutes a night it is worth more here than it would be elsewhere: the outlet starts before the forecheck arrives.”

  • plays-deepa strength· takes the net away by occupying it

    “He plays deep in the crease and lets the shot come to him, which is why the save percentage is stable and why the second chance from the slot is where he is beaten.”

  • rebound-controlhe lacks it· where the second chance ends up

    “The rebound control is the weakest measurable part of the file.”