Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

71

Evgeni Malkin

Pittsburgh Penguins Center

Eighty-three points at thirty-six, out of the softest deployment of any forward in this book but four.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2006-07PIT78335285+280160624213.619:10
2007-08PIT824759106+1678170527217.321:19
2008-09PIT823578113+1780142429012.122:31
2009-10PIT67284977-6100132726810.420:51
2010-11PIT43152237-4185031828.219:49
2011-12PIT755059109+1870120933914.821:01
2012-13PIT3192433+536403999.119:42
2013-14PIT60234972+106270319112.020:04
2014-15PIT69284270-26090421213.218:58
2015-16PIT57273158+165110616216.719:22
2016-17PIT62333972+1877110619117.318:37
2017-18PIT78425698+1687140723917.618:59
2018-19PIT68215172-258990518711.218:48
2019-20PIT55254974+75870517114.619:31
2020-21PIT3382028-4244007211.117:44
2021-22PIT41202242-102490512915.518:20
2022-23PIT82275683-1282110324011.318:35
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—10634717581229+471090173481348613.519:45

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

27 goals and 56 assists in 82 games — 83 points — at 18:35 a night. Minus-12, 240 shots at 11.3 per cent, eleven on the power play, three game-winners, 82 penalty minutes.

82 games is the most he has played since 2008-09, and only the third 82-game season of a seventeen-year career.

54.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 84th percentile, with his ice at 53-50 against an expectation of 61.16-50.31 across 1,133 minutes. Eight goals short of what the chances called for, which on this club was the ordinary experience rather than his own failing.

He started 66.7 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 99th percentile — the sixth-highest share of any skater in this book, behind Barzal, Krug, Ovechkin, Zucker and Kaprizov. A 54.9 per cent chance share out of that deployment is a smaller achievement than it looks.

The Finesse Game

240 shots at a median of 28 feet. Inside twenty: 92 shots on goal and 19 goals, 20.65 per cent against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 94 shots and 8 goals, 8.51 against a league rate of 11.05. Beyond forty: 53 shots and one goal.

Read across, that is a player whose value is now entirely inside twenty feet and who is still taking a third of his shots from outside forty. Fifty-three shots on goal from long range returned one goal.

313 tracked attempts: 157 wrist, 52 snap, 49 slap, 28 backhand. The slap share of 15.7 per cent is very high for a forward and most of it is the point shot on the power play, where eleven of his 27 goals were scored.

91.1 mph at the 52nd percentile. The shot is ordinary by measurement and it never was the thing: he is a puck-protection centre who buys the extra second and then finds the pass.

The Physical Game

213 pounds, 82 penalty minutes, and a career total of 1,090 in 1,063 games.

The skating is where the age shows first. Top speed 21.4 mph, the 10th percentile; 0.6 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 32nd. He still covers 3.09 miles a night, the 84th percentile, which says he takes long shifts rather than fast ones.

That is a real change. A man who cannot get to top speed and still leads the club’s forwards in ground covered is winning his ice by holding onto the puck, and he is one of very few players who can still do that at thirty-six.

He retaliates. The 82 minutes are not from forechecking, and a share of them arrive after somebody has done something to him first.

The Intangibles

Second overall in 2004, seventeen seasons, 1,063 games, 1,229 points.

The career reads as three Hart-level peaks and a great deal of missed time: 109 points in 2011-12, 98 in 2017-18, and eight seasons under sixty games. The 82 games last season are the outlier at the end of it.

471 goals and 758 assists, and the second-line centre job on a club whose first-line centre is thirty-five. That pairing is the reason Pittsburgh has been hard to play for seventeen years and it is also the reason there is no obvious next thing.

At thirty-six, given the easiest starts on the roster and a winger’s minutes, he produced 83 points. That is the correct use of him and it is worth saying that the club found it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    67% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “The 82 minutes are not from forechecking, and a share of them arrive after somebody has done something to him first.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The shot is ordinary by measurement and it never was the thing: he is a puck-protection centre who buys the extra second and then finds the pass.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,133 minutes

Expected goals
54.9%
86th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.5%
88th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 50 against. Expected: 61.2 and 50.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
94th
Numbers
86th

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
20th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.09 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.1 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1133 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
PIT took 53.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.9% — 1.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,133 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jason Zucker55.6%51.1%54.7%
Bryan Rust56.9%53.4%51.2%
Rickard Rakell52.0%56.8%56.1%

55.6% together, 51.1% for him apart and 54.7% for Zucker apart. He was worse away from Zucker, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Zucker did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

312 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 28 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.