This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Jansen Harkins
Pittsburgh Penguins Center
Two hundred and thirty-six five-on-five minutes at a 98th-percentile chance share, which is a number and not a finding.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | WPG | 29 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 6.9 | 10:37 |
| 2020-21 | WPG | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6.3 | 8:24 |
| 2021-22 | WPG | 77 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -8 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 10.4 | 9:29 |
| 2022-23 | WPG | 22 | 3 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 16.7 | 10:49 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 154 | 13 | 14 | 27 | -8 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 10.0 | 9:42 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
3 goals and 2 assists in 22 games — 5 points — at 10:49 a night for Winnipeg. Plus-4, 18 shots at 16.7 per cent, 12 penalty minutes.
59.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 98th percentile — and across 236 minutes, which is why that figure appears here with a warning attached rather than as a finding. Two hundred and thirty-six minutes is about three games’ worth of a regular’s season.
His ice finished 10-6 against an expectation of 9.86-6.65, which is to say the chances and the goals agreed.
He started 34.7 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 6th percentile.
The Finesse Game
18 shots at a median of 21 feet. Seven shots on goal from inside twenty feet produced three goals; six from the mid-slot and four from beyond forty produced none.
Three goals on eighteen shots is a 16.7 per cent shooting percentage and it means nothing at all. His career figure is 10.0 on 130 shots, which means only slightly more.
25 tracked attempts is the smallest count of any skater in this chapter. 83.3 mph at the 7th percentile is the one measurement here with enough behind it to keep: the shot is very soft.
What can be said is what the deployment says. He was used in his own end, he was on the ice for more chances than he gave up, and he did it in a fourth-line role on a playoff club.
The Physical Game
6-1 and 197 pounds. Top speed 22.8 mph at the 76th percentile, 1.4 bursts above twenty a game at the 70th, 1.83 miles a game at the 9th.
Short shifts skated quickly, which is the third time that shape has appeared in this chapter’s bottom six and is what the role produces rather than what distinguishes the man.
12 penalty minutes in 22 games is a high rate for a fourth-line centre and the only unusual number in the physical file.
He kills penalties and takes defensive-zone draws, which is the whole of the job description.
The Intangibles
Forty-seventh overall in 2015, the second round, four seasons, 154 games, 27 points, all of them in Winnipeg.
The 77 games he played in 2021-22 produced 13 points, and the three seasons around it are 22, 26 and 29 games. He has never held a place.
He is twenty-six and arrives as organisational depth on a club that needed some. The chance share above is the reason his name is worth remembering and the minute count is the reason nothing should be concluded from it.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
“He kills penalties and takes defensive-zone draws, which is the whole of the job description.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 236 minutes
- Expected goals
- 59.7%
- 98th pct
- Shot attempts
- 53.9%
- 85th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 6 against. Expected: 9.9 and 6.7.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 74 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 22 games
- Top speed
- 22.8 mph
- 81st pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.41 a game
- Distance
- 1.83 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 83.3 mph
- 28th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.9
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 with WPG · 236 minutes at five-on-five
- Adam Lowry49%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- WPG took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.7% — 7.8 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- 236 minutes at five-on-five — 2nd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Lowry | 58.8% | 61.0% | 52.3% |
| Morgan Barron | 60.9% | 58.7% | 51.4% |
| Neal Pionk | 57.5% | 61.4% | 48.5% |
58.8% together, 61.0% for him apart and 52.3% for Lowry apart. Lowry was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Lowry than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
24 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.