Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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87

Sidney Crosby

Pittsburgh Penguins Center

Ninety-three points in his eighteenth season, and every one of those eighteen at a point a game or better.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2005-06PIT813963102-1110160527814.020:08
2006-07PIT793684120+1060130425014.420:46
2007-08PIT53244872+183960417313.920:51
2008-09PIT773370103+37670323813.921:57
2009-10PIT815158109+1571132629817.121:57
2010-11PIT41323466+2031101316119.921:55
2011-12PIT2282937+15142037510.718:28
2012-13PIT36154156+261630112412.121:06
2013-14PIT803668104+1846110525913.921:58
2014-15PIT77285684+547100323711.819:58
2015-16PIT80364985+1942100924814.520:28
2016-17PIT75444589+1724140525517.319:53
2017-18PIT8229608904690624711.720:41
2018-19PIT793565100+1836120322015.921:00
2019-20PIT41163147-81540410914.720:16
2020-21PIT55243862+82651515915.120:24
2021-22PIT69315384+193280920814.919:58
2022-23PIT82336093+85290925512.920:09
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—11905509521502+210783162487379414.520:44

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

33 goals and 60 assists in 82 games — 93 points — at 20:09 a night. Plus-8, 255 shots at 12.9 per cent, nine on the power play, nine game-winners, 52 penalty minutes.

He played all 82 for the second time in eighteen seasons.

54.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 80th percentile, with his ice at 67-51 against an expectation of 66.49-55.94 across 1,247 minutes. That is a good share converted slightly better than the chances predicted, on a club whose finishing was the worst in the league.

He started 62.8 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 95th percentile.

The Finesse Game

255 shots at a median of 22 feet, with 47 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty.

Inside twenty feet: 114 shots on goal and 23 goals — 20.18 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty he was seven from 79, at 8.86 against a league rate of 11.05. Beyond forty, four from 44.

So the close-range finishing is above the rate and the mid-slot is below it, on a hundred and ninety-three shots on goal from inside forty feet. At thirty-five that is the distribution of a player who is still getting to the front of the net and no longer beating anybody from the circle.

The tracked attempts are where he stops looking like anybody else. 348 of them: 179 wrist shots, then 44 tip-ins and 42 backhands. A backhand share of 12.1 per cent is close to double the median forward’s 7.4, and the tip-ins are the record of a man who spends the offensive zone within a stick’s length of the goaltender.

93.1 mph, the 65th percentile. The shot has never been the instrument. The puck arrives from below the hash marks because he took it there.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 200 pounds, with 52 penalty minutes and 3.17 miles a game at the 88th percentile, at 22.5 mph and the 62nd, 1.6 bursts above twenty a game at the 77th.

The legs are intact at thirty-five and the tracking says so plainly: he covers ground at the 88th percentile of the league while topping out at a speed a third of it beats.

The strength on the puck is the physical asset and it always has been. He plays with his back to pressure below the goal line and comes out of it with possession, which is why the backhand count is what it is.

783 career penalty minutes across 1,190 games is the record of somebody who finishes checks and does not go looking.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2005, eighteen seasons, 1,190 games, 1,502 points, all of them in one uniform.

Every one of those eighteen seasons has been at a point a game or better. The lowest is 2017-18, 89 points in 82 games; the highest is 2006-07, 120 in 79. There is no season in the table to argue about.

550 goals and 952 assists. He captains a club that has now missed the playoffs and whose roster answer was to trade for a thirty-two-year-old defenceman.

What this file cannot settle is how much of the 93 points is him and how much is the wing beside him, because the two have been inseparable for seven seasons. The one thing it can settle is that nothing in the tracking or the shot chart has started to fall away.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    4 of 60 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 6.7%, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    15:12 a game at five-on-five, 95th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    63% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “He captains a club that has now missed the playoffs and whose roster answer was to trade for a thirty-two-year-old defenceman.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He plays with his back to pressure below the goal line and comes out of it with possession, which is why the backhand count is what it is.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “A backhand share of 12.1 per cent is close to double the median forward's 7.4, and the tip-ins are the record of a man who spends the offensive zone within a stick's length of the goaltender.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,247 minutes

Expected goals
54.3%
83rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.4%
87th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 67 for, 51 against. Expected: 66.5 and 55.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
100th
Numbers
83rd

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 88 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
68th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.17 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.1 mph
83rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1247 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
PIT took 53.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.3% — 1.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,247 minutes at five-on-five — 87th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jake Guentzel55.0%48.0%41.2%
Rickard Rakell57.7%50.3%50.7%
Kris Letang53.4%55.3%54.1%

55.0% together, 48.0% for him apart and 41.2% for Guentzel apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

326 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 34 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.