Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

25

Logan O'Connor

Colorado Avalanche Right Wing

Undrafted, 175 pounds, three shorthanded goals, and the best penalty killer on a club that wins fifty games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19COL5000-2000010.06:49
2019-20COL16202020011513.38:26
2020-21COL22325+66000378.110:56
2021-22COL8181624+10380111276.313:52
2022-23COL8291726+11370201048.614:12
2023-24COL57131225+13340348515.314:57
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—263354782+381170663699.513:30

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Fifty-seven games, 13 goals and 12 assists with 3 shorthanded, 14:57 a night and plus-13. He converted 15.29 per cent of 85 shots.

He took 52.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 720 minutes, the 75th percentile, and his ice went 31-24 against an expectation of 31.36-27.97. Thirteen goals is a career high and 25 points at fourteen minutes a night from a fourth-line winger is real value.

The Finesse Game

Eighty-five shots at a median of 19 feet with 50 per cent from inside 20 — half of everything he shoots comes from the slot, which for a man of 175 pounds is a choice about courage.

Thirty-five goals in 263 career games at 9.49 per cent. The 15.29 last season is above his level and the shot is ordinary. Forty-seven career assists says the puck skill is not why he plays.

The Physical Game

The skating is the game — he is among the quicker forwards in the league over the first three strides and he uses it to pressure rather than to attack.

He is 6-0 and 175 and he does not win physical battles, but he takes 34 penalty minutes in 57 games finishing checks he has no business finishing. He forechecks aggressively and is usually the first man in.

The Intangibles

Undrafted out of Denver, six seasons in one organisation, 263 games and a Stanley Cup. He is plus-38 across a career spent almost entirely in a bottom-six role.

He scored 3 shorthanded goals and has 6 in 263 career games, and at 6-0 and 175 he pressures the point man rather than sitting in a box. He is the best penalty killer on the club and the cheapest useful player on the roster.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    34% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 5th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He scored 3 shorthanded goals and has 6 in 263 career games, and at 6-0 and 175 he pressures the point man rather than sitting in a box.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks aggressively and is usually the first man in.”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted out of Denver, six seasons in one organisation, 263 games and a Stanley Cup.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 720 minutes

Expected goals
52.9%
75th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.8%
89th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 24 against. Expected: 31.4 and 28.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
31st
Numbers
75th

The numbers rank him 44 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 57 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
91st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.51 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.36 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.1 mph
39th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 720 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
COL took 52.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.9% — 0.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 720 minutes at five-on-five — 32nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ross Colton54.3%50.5%50.4%
Miles Wood52.2%53.8%45.6%
Josh Manson52.9%52.8%52.5%

54.3% together, 50.5% for him apart and 50.4% for Colton apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

127 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.