Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

7

Devon Toews

Colorado Avalanche Defense

Plus-156 in 397 games — the best career rate of anybody in this edition — from a fourth-round pick nobody wanted.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19NYI4851318+74102816.217:54
2019-20NYI6862228+1161011224.920:31
2020-21COL5392231+29162021217.424:46
2021-22COL66134457+52202031588.225:22
2022-23COL8074350+39261001654.225:06
2023-24COL82123850+28180021597.523:26
2024-25 so far
Career39752182234+15610070108066.523:06

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

All 82 games, 12 goals and 38 assists, 23:26 a night and plus-28. He took 54.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,528 minutes — more than anybody on the club — the 85th percentile, and his ice went 67-53 against an expectation of 66.51-55.58.

The goals and the chances agree almost exactly in both directions, which on a club whose stars were fourteen and fifteen goals under expectation is worth saying out loud. He is plus-156 across 397 career games, the highest rate of anybody in this edition with two hundred and fifty games.

The Finesse Game

He moves the puck out on the first pass rather than on a carry, and the pass is chosen before he has the puck. One hundred and eighty-two assists in 397 games is a first-pair playmaking rate and almost none of it is spectacular.

One hundred and fifty-nine shots at a median of 53 feet with 75 per cent from beyond 40, and 12 went in. He gets the puck through traffic rather than around it, which is the whole skill of a point shot.

The Physical Game

He defends the rush with a stick that arrives early, and 18 penalty minutes in 82 games at 23:26 a night is among the lowest rates of any defenceman playing those minutes in this edition. He is never late, so he never has to hold.

At 6-1 and 191 he is not a punishing defenceman and does not clear his crease by force. The pair works because Josh Manson does that on the other one.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick, 108th overall in 2014, who spent three years at Quinnipiac and two more in the American league before New York gave him 48 games at 25. Colorado bought him for two second-round picks and he has been the most underrated defenceman in hockey ever since.

He turned 30 and played all 82 games at the hardest minutes on a fifty-win club. There is no part of his game that depends on being young.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,528 minutes

Expected goals
54.5%
86th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.7%
83rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 67 for, 53 against. Expected: 66.5 and 55.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
69th
Numbers
86th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 201 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1528 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
COL took 52.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.5% — 2.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,528 minutes at five-on-five — 98th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cale Makar55.2%53.0%51.2%
Nathan MacKinnon58.5%47.7%55.4%
Mikko Rantanen57.0%51.0%52.3%

55.2% together, 53.0% for him apart and 51.2% for Makar apart. Makar was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Makar than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

216 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 37 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.