Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

92

Jonathan Drouin

Colorado Avalanche Left Wing

Fifty-six points at 29 after six seasons in Montreal that produced almost nothing — and 48 per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15TBL7042832+334300765.313:14
2015-16TBL214610+140012516.014:27
2016-17TBL73213253-131690618311.517:42
2017-18MTL77133346-28304041647.917:36
2018-19MTL81183553-8263031909.516:56
2019-20MTL277815-6141015113.715:42
2020-21MTL4422123-820000762.616:05
2021-22MTL3461420-923000629.717:06
2022-23MTL5822729-1818000692.914:54
2023-24COL79193756+122850212715.018:11
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—56496241337-742132501710239.416:25

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Seventy-nine games, 19 goals and 37 assists for 56 points with 5 on the power play, 18:11 a night and plus-12. He converted 14.96 per cent of 127 shots against a career 9.38 across 1,023.

He took 56.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,113 minutes, the 92nd percentile, and his ice went 67-47 against an expectation of 53.11-41.55. It is the best season of his career by some distance and it came at 29, eleven years after he was taken third overall.

The Finesse Game

The hands are the reason he was taken third overall and they never went anywhere. He handles the puck at speed in tight ice and beats a defenceman on the entry with a change of pace rather than with pure speed.

Two hundred and forty-one career assists in 564 games is a genuine first-line playmaking rate, and 37 last season on Nathan MacKinnon’s wing is what happens when it is finally attached to a finisher.

One hundred and twenty-seven shots at a median of 21 feet with 48 per cent from inside 20 and 12 per cent from beyond 40. The 14.96 per cent conversion is well above his career rate and will not hold.

The Physical Game

He is 5-11 and 189 and plays no physical game at all. Twenty-eight penalty minutes in 79 games is a low rate and none of it is hostile.

He does not retrieve pucks below the goal line and does not kill penalties. On a club with MacKinnon, Rantanen and Nichushkin, the winger who creates rather than works is a position that exists.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2013, a career that stalled in Tampa Bay and then went badly wrong in Montreal, with a career minus-74 across 564 games behind him. He signed in Colorado on a one-year contract to find out whether any of it was his fault.

The answer was 56 points. That is the most interesting thing that happened to this club last season and it has almost nothing to do with the standings.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He handles the puck at speed in tight ice and beats a defenceman on the entry with a change of pace rather than with pure speed.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Two hundred and forty-one career assists in 564 games is a genuine first-line playmaking rate, and 37 last season on Nathan MacKinnon's wing is what happens when it is finally attached to a finisher.”

  • penalty-killerhe lacks it· trusted a man short

    “He does not retrieve pucks below the goal line and does not kill penalties.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,113 minutes

Expected goals
56.1%
92nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.8%
89th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 67 for, 47 against. Expected: 53.1 and 41.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
92nd

The numbers rank him 72 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 79 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
84th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.86 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.75 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.7 mph
49th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1113 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
COL took 52.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.1% — 3.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,113 minutes at five-on-five — 74th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nathan MacKinnon60.0%49.2%56.3%
Mikko Rantanen58.8%53.2%53.6%
Devon Toews59.7%52.7%51.9%

60.0% together, 49.2% for him apart and 56.3% for MacKinnon apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

183 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.