Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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43

Valeri Nichushkin

Colorado Avalanche Right Wing

Sixteen power-play goals in fifty-four games — the second-best rate in this edition — from a median of sixteen feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14DAL79142034+20820212810.914:58
2014-15DAL8011-5200060.013:46
2015-16DAL7992029+2121011396.513:56
2018-19DAL5701010-40000650.011:55
2019-20COL65131427+261411311311.514:04
2020-21COL55101121+940149810.214:05
2021-22COL62252752+211452518013.919:02
2022-23COL53173047+152101215810.820:16
2023-24COL54282553+522160615817.721:21
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—512116158274+897835523104511.115:57

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Fifty-four games, 28 goals and 25 assists, 16 of the goals on the power play, 21:21 a night and plus-5. He converted 17.72 per cent of 158 shots.

Sixteen power-play goals in fifty-four games is the second-best rate in this edition, behind only Sam Reinhart. He took 54.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 826 minutes, the 82nd percentile, and his ice went 42-38 against an expectation of 39.61-33.81. Twenty-eight games missed is the thing that keeps this from being one of the best forward seasons in the league.

The Finesse Game

He shoots from a median of 16 feet with 55 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 — the most net-front profile of any top-six forward in this chapter — and converted 17.72 per cent. There is no perimeter game and there does not need to be one.

A career 11.10 per cent across 1,045 shots says last season’s rate is well above his level, and 116 goals in 512 games says the 28 in 54 is the outlier rather than the arrival. Twenty-five assists is a fair return for a winger whose job is to occupy the paint.

The Physical Game

He goes to the front of the net at 6-4 and 210 and does not leave, and a defenceman who wants him out has to commit to moving him. That is the entire power-play job and he is very good at it.

Twenty-two penalty minutes in 54 games is a low rate and 78 in 512 across his career is remarkably low for a man who plays where he plays. He absorbs rather than retaliates.

The Intangibles

Tenth overall in 2013 out of Chelyabinsk, a career that went nowhere in Dallas — including a full season without a goal — and then turned completely in Colorado. He is plus-89 across 512 games and has a Stanley Cup.

He has played 54, 53 and 62 games in three of the last four seasons. Availability is the whole question and the club has no plan for it that does not involve him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    15:18 a game at five-on-five, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He goes to the front of the net at 6-4 and 210 and does not leave, and a defenceman who wants him out has to commit to moving him.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He absorbs rather than retaliates.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He shoots from a median of 16 feet with 55 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 — the most net-front profile of any top-six forward in this chapter — and converted 17.72 per cent.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 826 minutes

Expected goals
54%
83rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.5%
91st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 38 against. Expected: 39.6 and 33.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
57th
Numbers
83rd

The numbers rank him 26 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 54 games

Top speed
24.0 mph
99th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.54 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.48 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.8 mph
50th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 826 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
COL took 52.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.0% — 1.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 826 minutes at five-on-five — 41st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nathan MacKinnon56.1%50.9%59.0%
Mikko Rantanen54.4%53.3%56.3%
Devon Toews55.2%52.7%54.6%

56.1% together, 50.9% for him apart and 59.0% for MacKinnon apart. He was worse away from MacKinnon, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than MacKinnon did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

226 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 27 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 55% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 15% from beyond forty.