This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2023-24 report →
Jesper Fast
Carolina Hurricanes Right Wing
A 57.6 per cent chance share at the 96th percentile, 55 per cent of his shots inside 20 feet, and four penalty minutes in 82 games.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | NYR | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.0 | 11:17 |
| 2014-15 | NYR | 58 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 11.5 | 11:48 |
| 2015-16 | NYR | 79 | 10 | 20 | 30 | +9 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 75 | 13.3 | 14:56 |
| 2016-17 | NYR | 68 | 6 | 15 | 21 | +6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 10.7 | 13:48 |
| 2017-18 | NYR | 71 | 13 | 20 | 33 | -10 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 16.3 | 14:53 |
| 2018-19 | NYR | 66 | 8 | 12 | 20 | -3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80 | 10.0 | 15:43 |
| 2019-20 | NYR | 69 | 12 | 17 | 29 | +16 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 84 | 14.3 | 16:36 |
| 2020-21 | CAR | 46 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 15.8 | 15:18 |
| 2021-22 | CAR | 82 | 14 | 20 | 34 | +24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 97 | 14.4 | 14:49 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 550 | 75 | 125 | 200 | +32 | 134 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 569 | 13.2 | 14:42 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
14 goals and 20 assists in all 82 games — 34 points at 14:49 a night, plus-24, on 97 shots and 4 penalty minutes.
57.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,066 minutes, the 96th percentile — the highest of any Carolina forward. His ice went 53-32 against an expectation of 51.56-38.03 — a goal and a half of scoring above the chances and six fewer conceded than they predicted.
Fifty-three goals for and thirty-two against across 1,066 minutes, on the 30th percentile of ice time. 46.7 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the offensive zone, the 99th percentile.
The Finesse Game
97 attempts at a median of 18 feet with 55 per cent from inside 20, converting at 14.4 per cent. Fourteen goals off 97 shots is a fine season for a third-line winger and 75 in 550 career games is the honest rate.
1.53 even-strength points per 60 and 200 points in 550 games. He is not on the ice for the offence and produces some anyway because he is standing in the right place when the puck arrives.
The Physical Game
6-1 and 191, and 3.05 hits per 60. Four penalty minutes in 82 games, and the whole of his game is doing the ordinary thing correctly at speed — the stick is in the lane, the support is where it should be, and nothing needs to be undone.
He kills penalties on the best unit in the league and has done that job at two organisations.
Top speed 22.0 mph and 2.30 miles a game. Ordinary feet, and none of it matters at his role.
The Intangibles
One hundred and fifty-seventh overall in 2010 by the Rangers, sixth round, and 550 games across New York and Carolina.
He is 30, signed for one more year. A third-line winger with the highest chance share on a 116-point club is the sort of player analytics people find and coaches already knew about, and Carolina signed him precisely because Rod Brind’Amour’s system is built out of men like this.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- disciplined· stays out of the box
0.05 penalty minutes a game over 82, 1st percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it
- durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“Four penalty minutes in 82 games, and the whole of his game is doing the ordinary thing correctly at speed”
“He kills penalties on the best unit in the league and has done that job at two organisations”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,066 minutes
- Expected goals
- 57.6%
- 96th pct
- Shot attempts
- 58.1%
- 97th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 32 against. Expected: 51.6 and 38.0.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 29 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games
- Top speed
- 22.0 mph
- 45th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.70 a game
- Distance
- 2.30 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 88.9 mph
- 59th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 · 1066 minutes at five-on-five
- Jordan Staal72%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- CAR took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.6% — 2.4 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,066 minutes at five-on-five — 71st percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal | 59.1% | 54.0% | 51.9% |
| Nino Niederreiter | 59.0% | 55.6% | 54.6% |
| Brady Skjei | 55.9% | 58.9% | 52.1% |
59.1% together, 54.0% for him apart and 51.9% for Staal apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
139 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 55% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.