This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Sebastian Aho

Thirty-seven goals at 16.7 per cent with 63 per cent of his shots from the slot, and 2.72 takeaways per 60 — the 98th percentile.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2016-17	CAR	82	24	25	49	-1	26	6	1	4	214	11.2	16:47
2017-18	CAR	78	29	36	65	+4	24	8	0	4	200	14.5	17:55
2018-19	CAR	82	30	53	83	+25	26	3	4	7	243	12.3	20:09
2019-20	CAR	68	38	28	66	+10	26	8	4	5	206	18.4	19:25
2020-21	CAR	56	24	33	57	+16	32	7	3	7	148	16.2	19:28
2021-22	CAR	79	37	44	81	+18	38	13	1	9	221	16.7	18:57
2022-23 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	445	182	219	401	+72	172	45	13	36	1232	14.8	18:44

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

37 goals and 44 assists in 79 games — 81 points at 18:57 a night, plus-18, with 13 power-play goals, 1 shorthanded and 9 game-winners on 221 shots and 38 penalty minutes.

54.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,021 minutes, the 83rd percentile. His ice went 52-41 against an expectation of 53.82-45.09 — two goals of scoring missing and four fewer conceded than the chances predicted.

16.7 per cent shooting is the 90th percentile among the league’s forwards, and 63 per cent of his attempts came from inside the slot, the 87th percentile, at a median of 20 feet. The conversion is high because the locations are, which is the version of a high shooting percentage that repeats.

2.72 takeaways per 60 is the 98th percentile among the league forwards.

The Finesse Game

221 attempts, 37 goals, 44 assists, and 2.60 even-strength points per 60 at the 88th percentile. He is the rare first-line centre whose goal total and assist total are both genuinely first-line.

35 per cent of his points came on the power play, the 89th percentile, off 2:58 a night of it — 13 of the 37 goals.

The puck arrives on his stick more than it should because he takes it: 2.72 takeaways against 2.24 giveaways is a positive ratio at a volume almost nobody matches.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 189, and 3.05 hits per 60 at the 37th percentile with 0.92 blocks at the 13th. He is not a physical player and does not need to be, because 1:54 a night shorthanded, the 89th percentile among forwards, on the best kill in the league is where the defensive value lives.

The league’s tracking chips have no record for him in this season, so nothing can be said here about his top speed or the ground he covers. That is a gap in the measurement rather than a finding about the player, and it should not be read as one.

The Intangibles

Thirty-fifth overall in 2015, second round, out of Oulu, and 445 games for 401 points by twenty-five.

He is 25, on the contract Montreal’s offer sheet forced Carolina to match in 2019 — five years at a number that is now among the best in the league. He is the best player on the third-best team in hockey and almost nobody outside the Carolinas can name him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

durable· was available
79 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“63 per cent of his attempts came from inside the slot, the 87th percentile, at a median of 20 feet”
transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control
“2.72 takeaways per 60 is the 98th percentile among the league forwards”
penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short
“1:54 a night shorthanded, the 89th percentile among forwards, on the best kill in the league”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,021 minutes

Expected goals: 54.4%; 83rd pct
Shot attempts: 54.3%; 85th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 41 against. Expected: 53.8 and 45.1.

The eye and the numbers

Not recorded

Report

96th

Numbers

83rd

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. Whether it was written with these numbers in view was not recorded, so neither the agreement nor the gap can be read as independent.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1021 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club: CAR took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.4% — 0.8 below the club he did it on.
The role: Third line, 1,021 minutes at five-on-five — 65th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Teuvo Teravainen	53.9%	55.2%	51.4%
Andrei Svechnikov	55.7%	53.5%	56.1%
Seth Jarvis	56.1%	53.1%	58.7%

53.9% together, 55.2% for him apart and 51.4% for Teravainen apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

328 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 37 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.