Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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48

Jordan Martinook

Carolina Hurricanes Left Wing

A 55.4 per cent chance share on eleven minutes a night, and a 23.0 mph top speed at the 87th percentile from a fourth-line winger.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15ARI8011-3000080.011:42
2015-16ARI8191524-9180121098.315:11
2016-17ARI77111425-84011210910.115:41
2017-18ARI816915-24450011125.414:01
2018-19CAR82151025+13801514610.314:29
2019-20CAR4521113-222001444.511:16
2020-21CAR444913-325001626.512:45
2021-22CAR596915+122002777.811:12
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—4775378131-4721013146678.013:48

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 9 assists in 59 games — 15 points at 11:12 a night, plus-1, with 2 game-winners on 77 shots and 22 penalty minutes.

55.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 637 minutes, the 87th percentile. His ice went 24-23 against an expectation of 28.74-23.18 — nearly five goals of scoring that the chances said should have arrived and did not.

46.7 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the offensive zone, the 99th percentile. A fourth line that lives in the other end is what Rod Brind’Amour’s forecheck is for.

The Finesse Game

77 attempts at a median of 24 feet, converting at 7.8 per cent. 131 points in 477 career games. There has never been scoring here and there is not going to be.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 208, and this is the whole of it. He is the man sent over the boards to make the first hit of a shift and he has made a career of it, and he kills penalties on the best unit in the league.

Top speed 23.0 mph is the 87th percentile among the skaters this book tracks, which for a thirty-year-old fourth-line winger is genuinely unusual and is why the forecheck works: he arrives before the defenceman has turned.

1.85 miles a game is low and is a function of eleven minutes.

The Intangibles

Fifty-eighth overall in 2012 by the Phoenix Coyotes, and 477 games across Arizona and Carolina.

He is 30, signed for one more year. He is the fourth-line winger every good club has and no bad club can find — quick, willing, on the right side of the puck, and worth nothing at all on a scoresheet.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    60% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He is the man sent over the boards to make the first hit of a shift and he has made a career of it”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “he kills penalties on the best unit in the league”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 637 minutes

Expected goals
55.4%
88th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
58.7%
98th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 24 for, 23 against. Expected: 28.7 and 23.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
88th

The numbers rank him 30 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 59 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
88th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.85 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.1 mph
61st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 637 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CAR took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.4% — 0.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
637 minutes at five-on-five — 27th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ian Cole53.9%56.1%57.7%
Brady Skjei57.6%54.4%52.7%
Steven Lorentz63.2%52.0%54.8%

53.9% together, 56.1% for him apart and 57.7% for Cole apart. Cole was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

118 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.