Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

73

Ondrej Kase

Carolina Hurricanes Right Wing

Fourteen goals in 50 games in a first healthy season since 2018, after three years of concussions.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17ANA5351015-118002776.511:47
2017-18ANA66201838+181410514613.713:55
2018-19ANA3011920021029411.715:39
2019-20ANA/BOS5571724-7140101444.916:32
2020-21BOS30000000040.08:30
2021-22TOR50141327+41441211911.813:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—2575767124+146262115849.814:11

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

With Toronto. 14 goals and 13 assists in 50 games — 27 points at 13:59 a night, plus-4, with 4 power-play goals, 1 shorthanded and 2 game-winners on 119 shots and 14 penalty minutes.

Fifty games is the most he has played since 2018-19, and the three seasons in between produced fewer than thirty in total.

50.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 591 minutes, the 57th percentile. His ice went 21-17 against an expectation of 23.43-23.35 — two goals of scoring missing and six fewer conceded than the chances predicted.

The Finesse Game

119 attempts in 50 games is a strong rate, at a median of 25 feet with 40 per cent from inside 20, converting at 11.8 per cent. 57 goals in 257 career games is a genuine middle-six scoring rate that injury has repeatedly interrupted.

2.4 bursts above 20 mph a game is the 90th percentile among the skaters this book tracks. He gets to loose pucks, which is where a good deal of the scoring comes from.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 187, and 14 penalty minutes in 50 games. He is not physical and, given the concussion record, there is no version of him that should be.

Top speed 22.4 mph at the 57th percentile with 2.30 miles a game. Quick off the mark, ordinary at top end.

The Intangibles

Two hundred and fifth overall in 2014, the seventh round, and 257 NHL games from a pick nobody expected anything of — three seasons in Anaheim, an injury-wrecked spell in Boston, and one good year in Toronto.

He is 26, signed here for one year. Everything about him is a bet on availability: the scoring rate is real, the chance share is fine, and the three seasons before this one produced almost no evidence at all.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    30% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 4th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 591 minutes

Expected goals
50.1%
57th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51%
65th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 17 against. Expected: 23.4 and 23.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
57th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 50 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
63rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.36 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.30 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.1 mph
67th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with TOR · 591 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TOR took 54.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.1% — 4.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
591 minutes at five-on-five — 24th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
David Kampf49.7%50.5%52.2%
TJ Brodie49.9%50.2%54.6%
Morgan Rielly51.3%49.3%53.4%

49.7% together, 50.5% for him apart and 52.2% for Kampf apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

154 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.