This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Andrei Svechnikov

Thirty goals at twenty-two off 11.10 shots per 60, with 8.42 hits, 3.21 giveaways and a penalty differential at the 10th percentile.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2018-19	CAR	82	20	17	37	0	62	0	0	3	189	10.6	14:39
2019-20	CAR	68	24	37	61	+9	54	6	0	5	183	13.1	16:44
2020-21	CAR	55	15	27	42	+1	44	4	0	1	147	10.2	17:32
2021-22	CAR	78	30	39	69	+19	79	9	0	5	249	12.0	17:16
2022-23 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	283	89	120	209	+29	239	19	0	14	768	11.6	16:26

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

30 goals and 39 assists in 78 games — 69 points at 17:16 a night, plus-19, with 9 power-play goals and 5 game-winners on 249 shots and 79 penalty minutes.

55.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,038 minutes, the 89th percentile. His ice went 55-39 against an expectation of 57.8-45.55 — three goals of scoring missing and six fewer conceded than the chances predicted.

11.10 shots per 60 is the 95th percentile among the league’s forwards and 2.51 even-strength points per 60 is the 83rd. Thirty goals and 69 points at twenty-two, on the third-best club in hockey.

The Finesse Game

249 attempts at a median of 28 feet with 44 per cent from inside the slot, converting at 12.0 per cent off a 94.2 mph release at the 68th percentile. He is a volume shooter from the middle distance rather than a finisher from the crease, and 89 goals in 283 career games is what that has produced.

3.21 giveaways per 60 is among the highest figures for a forward in the league. He carries into traffic and holds, and at twenty-two the decisions have not yet caught up with the hands.

The Physical Game

8.42 hits per 60 is the 83rd percentile among forwards, from a man who plays 17 minutes. At 6-3 and 200 he is one of the heaviest top-six forwards in the league and he initiates rather than absorbing.

And the discipline is the cost. 1.69 penalties taken per 60 is the 94th percentile and minus-0.45 on drawn against taken is the 10th. Seventy-nine penalty minutes, on a club that already took the most shorthanded minutes in the league.

0.67 blocks per 60 is the 3rd percentile among forwards. He is physical in the attacking end and not part of the defending.

Top speed 23.4 mph is the 96th percentile among forwards. A 6-3 winger who hits at the 83rd percentile and skates at the 96th is a genuinely rare thing.

The Intangibles

Second overall in 2018, 283 games and 209 points by twenty-two, and the youngest player of consequence on a club built to win now.

He is 22, on the first year of an eight-year contract signed in the summer. Carolina has paid for the version of him that scores 40 and stops taking a hundred penalty minutes’ worth of the wrong kind of aggression — and the measured record says the first half of that is already close.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

durable· was available
78 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck
“8.42 hits per 60 is the 83rd percentile among forwards, from a man who plays 17 minutes”
retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty
“1.69 penalties taken per 60 is the 94th percentile and minus-0.45 on drawn against taken is the 10th”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,038 minutes

Expected goals: 55.9%; 89th pct
Shot attempts: 55.5%; 90th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 55 for, 39 against. Expected: 57.8 and 45.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

96th

Numbers

89th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 78 games

Top speed: 23.4 mph; 96th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 2.17 a game
Distance: 2.78 miles a game
Hardest shot: 94.2 mph; 87th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1038 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club: CAR took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.9% — 0.7 above the club he did it on.
The role: Second line, 1,038 minutes at five-on-five — 67th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Vincent Trocheck	56.5%	55.5%	52.0%
Brady Skjei	50.9%	59.5%	54.5%
Sebastian Aho	55.7%	56.1%	53.5%

56.5% together, 55.5% for him apart and 52.0% for Trocheck apart. Trocheck was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Trocheck than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

359 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 29 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 25% from beyond forty.