Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

74

Jaccob Slavin

Carolina Hurricanes Defense

Plus-35, 3:14 a night shorthanded at the 99th percentile, 2.39 takeaways per 60 at the 98th — and ten penalty minutes in 79 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16CAR6321820+18000842.420:59
2016-17CAR8252934+2312010995.123:26
2017-18CAR8282230+1101011545.222:35
2018-19CAR82823310185111465.523:02
2019-20CAR6863036+30100031454.123:24
2020-21CAR5231215+2220001013.022:59
2021-22CAR7943842+35101001652.423:32
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—50836172208+112707258944.022:54

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 38 assists in 79 games — 42 points at 23:32 a night, plus-35, on 165 shots and 10 penalty minutes.

57.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,434 minutes, the 95th percentile among defencemen. His ice went 74-48 against an expectation of 73.76-54.97 — the scoring landed exactly where the chances said and seven fewer goals went in behind him than they predicted.

Seventy-four for and forty-eight against across 1,434 minutes, on a club that allowed 202 goals — fewer than anybody in the league.

3:14 a night shorthanded is the 99th percentile among defencemen, on the best penalty kill in the league, and Carolina took more shorthanded minutes than any other club.

The Finesse Game

38 assists from a defenceman who scored four goals, at 2.4 per cent conversion — the 14th percentile. He does not shoot to score and does not pretend to.

1.32 even-strength points per 60 is the 87th percentile among defencemen and 172 assists in 508 career games. The value is the exit: the puck leaves the zone on his stick or on a pass that is already decided, and it goes forward.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 207, and this is where the report becomes unusual. 1.61 hits per 60 is the 8th percentile among defencemen and 0.16 penalties taken per 60 is the 2nd — ten penalty minutes in 79 games, and 70 in 508 across a career.

6-3 with a long stick, and he takes the puck rather than the man — 2.39 takeaways per 60 is the 98th percentile among defencemen. He defends without contact and without fouling, which is the hardest way to do it and the only way that never costs anything.

46.3 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the offensive zone, the 98th percentile. That is not shelter; it is the consequence of a defenceman who ends possessions cleanly.

The Intangibles

One hundred and twentieth overall in 2012, fourth round, and 508 games with a plus-112 for one club.

He is 28, signed through 2025 at a number that has been called the best contract in hockey for four years. He has never been a Norris finalist and there is no measured argument for why not — 23 minutes, the best kill in the league, 42 points, ten penalty minutes and the 95th percentile in chance share is what the award is supposed to describe.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.13 penalty minutes a game over 79, 3rd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “6-3 with a long stick, and he takes the puck rather than the man — 2.39 takeaways per 60 is the 98th percentile among defencemen”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “3:14 a night shorthanded is the 99th percentile among defencemen, on the best penalty kill in the league”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “1.61 hits per 60 is the 8th percentile among defencemen”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,434 minutes

Expected goals
57.3%
95th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.9%
92nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 74 for, 48 against. Expected: 73.8 and 55.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
95th

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 79 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
79th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.72 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.14 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.3 mph
63rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1434 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CAR took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.3% — 2.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,434 minutes at five-on-five — 95th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Tony DeAngelo58.0%56.5%50.3%
Sebastian Aho57.1%57.4%52.7%
Andrei Svechnikov61.5%55.5%52.6%

58.0% together, 56.5% for him apart and 50.3% for DeAngelo apart. DeAngelo was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for DeAngelo than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

235 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 33 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.