Philadelphia Flyers

What the Quant Says

238 goals, 23rd in the league, and 17th at creating chances at even strength at 2.50 expected goals per 60. An ordinary attack, which is not the reason this season went the way it did.

Travis Konecny had 76 points, a career high, and Matvei Michkov 63 as a 20-year-old rookie. Tyson Foerster scored 25 goals at a 17.6 per cent conversion, Owen Tippett 20, Sean Couturier 45 points at 32 and Bobby Brink 41 from a third line at 5-8 and 169 pounds.

Finishing was 17th, 2.6 goals worse than expectation — which is to say the club scored roughly what its chances deserved. The shot charts are genuinely good: Noah Cates took 51 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, Couturier 50, Bobby Brink 45 and Foerster 43. Nobody here is a perimeter forward. There are simply not enough of them.

What the Scout Says

A rookie who can beat anybody one-on-one, a captain who lives in the paint, and not enough of either.

Matvei Michkov takes 39 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet and the release is deceptive rather than heavy; he does not overpower a goaltender and he does not have to. Travis Konecny had 52 assists, which is the number that changed — he has been a 30-goal scorer here and last season he was a distributor, on a line with a 20-year-old who needed the puck.

Sean Couturier takes 50 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet and Noah Cates 51. Neither has any business being the club's best net-front threat and both of them are.

Tyson Foerster is the finisher — 43 per cent of his attempts from inside 20, converting at 17.6 per cent, the highest rate of any regular here. Bobby Brink at 5-8 and 169 produced 29 assists from a third line by holding the puck longer than a man that size should be able to.

Owen Tippett is the one who does not fit. He is the fastest player here in a straight line, he is 6-1 and 210, and 16 penalty minutes in 77 games is a winger who is not in the physical half of the game at all.

What the Quant Says

286 goals against, 28th in the league, and 4th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.316 per 60. Those two facts do not belong in the same paragraph and the reconciliation is in the crease.

At five-on-five the club conceded 188 goals against an expectation of 145.9. Every regular defenceman carries a share of it. Egor Zamula took 54.6 per cent of the chances, the 89th percentile, and his ice went 33-45 — fifteen goals conceded above expectation, and only the third-worst figure on his own blue line, behind Travis Sanheim's twenty-one and Jamie Drysdale's eighteen. Rasmus Ristolainen conceded sixteen above his, Jamie Drysdale sixteen, Nick Seeler fourteen.

Jamie Drysdale finished minus-32 on an on-ice chance expectation of 46.20-45.61 — an even split. There is no better illustration in this book of what a plus-minus actually measures.

Cam York took 55.8 per cent of the expected goals, the 93rd percentile and the best on the club, and Emil Andrae 55.3 at 5-9. Travis Sanheim played all 82 games at 24:30 a night and was the only defenceman here whose goals came out ahead of his chances.

What the Scout Says

A blue line whose best five-on-five defencemen are the two smallest on it, and a goaltending record that makes every number look worse than it was.

Cam York is 6-0 and 194 and took 55.8 per cent of the expected goals, the best figure on the club. He is quick to the puck behind his own net, he escapes the first forechecker rather than absorbing him, and he moves it before the second one arrives. He does not clear a crease and never will.

Jamie Drysdale is 5-11 and 185 and the skating is elite for the position. 22 penalty minutes in 70 games at twenty minutes a night says he is rarely beaten badly enough to reach — and he finished minus-32. Emil Andrae at 5-9 took 55.3 per cent of the chances in 42 games.

The weight is Sanheim, Seeler and Ristolainen. Nick Seeler takes 79 per cent of his shot attempts from beyond 40 feet and Egor Zamula 79 — a bottom pair that arrives at the blue line and releases. Rasmus Ristolainen at 6-4 clears his crease and finishes checks and has now played 63, 31 and 74 games in three seasons.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 42.1 goals worse than the chances faced — 32nd in the league, and sixteen goals clear of the next-worst club in hockey. This is the season. Everything else is a footnote to it.

Samuel Ersson went 22-17-5 with an .883 and a 3.14 in 47 games. It is his second full season as the number one and he has now posted an .8904 and an .883. Aleksei Kolosov went 5-9-1 with an .867 in 17 games at 22 — the worst save percentage of anybody in this edition who played ten games. Ivan Fedotov played 25 and is off the roster.

A club that was 4th in the league at suppressing chances conceded 286 goals. Dan Vladar was signed in the summer off an .8975 in Calgary, which on this evidence would have been worth roughly twenty goals.

What the Scout Says

Three goaltenders, an .883, an .8975 and an .867, and the worst season by a crease in this book.

Samuel Ersson is 6-3 and 194 and orthodox — square to the puck, a conventional depth, neither deep nor challenging. The rebound control is the problem. Pucks come off him into the slot rather than to the corners, and behind a club that concedes as few first chances as this one, the second chance is where the season went.

Dan Vladar is 6-5 and 209 and takes up a great deal of the net by standing in it. The style is deep and blocking; the cost is the recovery across the crease, which is where every goaltender built this way is beaten.

Aleksei Kolosov is 6-1 and 185 and plays the opposite way — out at the top of the crease, quick rather than large. The lateral recovery is genuinely good and the rebound control is poor, and he posted an .867 at 22 on a club that had already lost the season.

What the Quant Says

30th in the league at 5.740 expected goals per 60, over 4:28 a night. The second-worst power play in hockey on a club that badly needed one.

Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny scored 8 power-play goals each and Tyson Foerster 6. Owen Tippett scored none in 77 games, which for a 20-goal winger is its own sort of statement about the unit.

The construction has been the problem for three years. There is no genuine net-front presence — Couturier is the closest thing and he is 32 and used elsewhere — and the entry relies on Konecny carrying it through a first pressure that is set for exactly that.

What the Scout Says

The second-worst power play in the league, and the reason is visible from the seats.

There is nobody to stand in front of the goaltender. Sean Couturier is the only forward on the roster who does that job by instinct and he is 32 and needed at even strength. Tyson Foerster goes to the net and takes the cross-check to stay there, and 6 power-play goals says he is not being used there enough.

Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny each scored 8 and both of them work from the perimeter of the unit — Michkov off the wall, Konecny from the top of the circle. That is two men beating a box from the outside, which is a plan and not a good one.

Travis Sanheim distributes from the point. Owen Tippett scored no power-play goals in 77 games, which for a winger with that shot is the single clearest indictment of the construction.

What the Quant Says

10th in the league at 6.695 expected goals against per 60, over 4:00 a game — the second-least shorthanded time of any club in hockey. The best phase on the roster, and the one that gets no credit because the goals went in anyway.

Noah Cates took 14 penalty minutes in 78 games and is the first-unit centre on it. Garnet Hathaway scored 2 shorthanded goals at 33, Couturier takes the important draw, and Nick Seeler blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league.

The discipline is the whole reason the workload is this light. Rasmus Ristolainen took 14 penalty minutes in 63 games at twenty minutes a night and Egor Zamula 6 in 63 — remarkable rates for defencemen with those reputations, and evidence of a club that has been coached carefully.

What the Scout Says

The best unit on the roster, and the one the goals column hides completely.

Noah Cates took 14 penalty minutes in 78 games and is the first-unit centre — a defensive forward who is essentially never beaten badly enough to have to foul, who forechecks hard and blocks shots. Sean Couturier takes the important draw and has since he was 22. Garnet Hathaway scored 2 shorthanded goals at 33 and Christian Dvorak was signed in the summer to add a third centre who can do it.

On the blue line it is Seeler and Sanheim. Nick Seeler blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league and clears the front of his own net by force.

And the workload is the club's own achievement. 4:00 a game is the second-least shorthanded time in hockey, on a roster that includes Hathaway, Deslauriers and Ristolainen. That is coaching.