Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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86

Joel Farabee

Calgary Flames Left Wing

25 points, a minus-17, and 12 goals of finishing disappearing from underneath a 50.6 per cent chance share.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20PHI5281321+639101819.914:06
2020-21PHI5520183802830112216.416:01
2021-22PHI63171734-115011111914.317:35
2022-23PHI82152439-14100114510.317:01
2023-24PHI82222850-133720218212.116:11
2024-25PHI/CGY81111425-17340011517.314:54
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—41593114207-3622971780011.616:02

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

11 goals and 14 assists in 81 games for 25 points, minus-17, on 14:54 a night between Philadelphia and Calgary.

51.0 per cent at five-on-five, the 62nd percentile, and on-ice goals of 29-44 against an expected 41-39 — 16 goals against on chances that were even. That is the largest gap of any forward in this chapter and none of it is his doing.

The Finesse Game

A quick winger with a decent release and reasonable hands. 151 shots and 11 goals at 7.3 per cent is well below his career rate, and 45 per cent of his attempts came from inside 20 feet, so the locations do not explain it.

The playmaking is functional. He was a 20-goal scorer twice before turning 24 and has not been one since, and the difference is finishing rather than opportunity.

The Physical Game

6 feet and 186, and light. He is willing on the forecheck without winning much, and does not go to the net front.

34 penalty minutes over 81 games. He had a serious neck injury early in his career and has been durable since.

The Intangibles

A first-round pick, a long contract signed early, and a trade at 25 that was mostly about salary.

The honest reading is a middle-six winger who had a season of very bad luck. 25 points understates him by about 10; it does not make him the 20-goal scorer the contract was written for.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelypresent and ordinary· first man in, and on the puck

    “He is willing on the forecheck without winning much, and does not go to the net front.”

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He is willing on the forecheck without winning much, and does not go to the net front.”

  • playmakerpresent and ordinary· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The playmaking is functional.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,031 minutes

Expected goals
51%
63rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.4%
46th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 29 for, 44 against. Expected: 41.0 and 39.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
42nd
Numbers
63rd

The numbers rank him 21 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 81 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
30th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
0.96 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
81.3 mph
25th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with PHI · 670 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
CGY took 48.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.0% — 2.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
1,031 minutes at five-on-five — 65th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Sean Couturier55.2%49.0%50.9%
Travis Sanheim61.3%47.4%51.9%
Travis Konecny52.5%50.6%49.3%

55.2% together, 49.0% for him apart and 50.9% for Couturier apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

198 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 45% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.