Philadelphia Flyers

What the Quant Says

222 goals, 29th in the league — the fewest of any club in the Eastern Conference.

Philadelphia created 2.415 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 24th, and took 47.4 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 24th, and 47.2 per cent of the expected goals, 23rd.

At five-on-five it scored 152 goals against an expectation of 154.3 — a shortfall of 2.3, 20th in the league. The finishing was very nearly neutral; the chances were not there.

Travis Konecny had 31 goals and 61 points in 60 games at 5-10, above the league rate from close range and from the mid-slot. Owen Tippett had 27 and 49, Morgan Frost 19 and 46 in a fourth season, Scott Laughton 18 and 43 and Joel Farabee 15 and 39.

Noah Cates had 38 points and 12 penalty minutes in all 82 games in a first full season. Owen Tippett scored 7 goals on 75 shots from beyond 40 feet, more than double the league forward rate.

What the Scout Says

Thirty-one goals in sixty games at five foot ten, and the fastest measured skater in this book on a fourth line.

Travis Konecny is 5-10 and 192 and scored 31 goals in 60 games with 343 career penalty minutes, converting above the league rate from close range and from the mid-slot. He is the best player on this club by a distance.

Owen Tippett is 6-1 and 210 and scored 27 goals, taking 7 from 75 shots beyond 40 feet — more than double the league forward rate. That is either a genuine long-range shot or a season, and 192 career games is not enough to know.

Noah Cates took 12 penalty minutes in all 82 games from the 22nd percentile of zone starts at a 17-foot median. Morgan Frost is at the 87th percentile of measured top speed with a career minus-26. Joel Farabee had the worst chance share of any Flyers forward who played a full season.

Ryan Poehling arrives as the fastest measured skater in this book — 24.3 miles an hour, ahead of Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon — on twelve minutes a night, starting three shifts in four in his own end.

Nicolas Deslauriers took 136 penalty minutes, second in the league, and Garnet Hathaway arrives with 490 in 457 games.

What the Quant Says

Philadelphia allowed 2.684 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 21st in the league, and conceded 277 goals, 22nd.

At five-on-five it conceded 174 goals against an expectation of 172.4, and the club's goaltending came in 1.6 goals worse than the chances it faced, 14th in the league — the most ordinary number on this page and the least of the club's problems.

Travis Sanheim played 81 games at 20:24 across 1,420 five-on-five minutes at the 25th percentile of chance share, with one goal on 61 long shots.

Rasmus Ristolainen played 74 games at 19:01 and carries a career minus-176 — the worst figure in this book by 39 — across 682 games.

Cam York had 18 assists in 54 games at 22 at the 6th percentile of measured top speed, and Nick Seeler took 85 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet.

Marc Staal arrives from Florida with 1,101 career games at the 5th percentile of top speed, and Sean Walker arrives with the 72nd percentile of measured speed and the 15th of ground covered. Ivan Provorov has gone to Columbus and Tony DeAngelo to Carolina.

What the Scout Says

A career minus-176 on the second pair, and the worst figure in this book by thirty-nine.

Rasmus Ristolainen is 6-4 and 208 and carries a career minus-176 in 682 games — the worst figure in this book by 39. He plays 19 minutes a night and 76 per cent of his shots come from beyond 40 feet. Ten seasons of that record on three clubs is not a small sample.

Travis Sanheim is 6-4 and 222 and played 1,420 five-on-five minutes at the 25th percentile of chance share, with one goal from 61 long shots. He is the most-used defenceman on the club and the numbers have not supported the role for two seasons.

Cam York is 22 and had 18 assists in 54 games at the 6th percentile of measured top speed — a puck-mover whose feet are already a question at 22.

Marc Staal arrives at 36 with 1,101 games and the 5th percentile of measured top speed. Sean Walker arrives, undrafted, with the 72nd percentile of speed and the 15th of ground covered — one of the widest gaps in the league. Nick Seeler took 85 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet and two all season from twenty to forty.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 1.6 goals worse than the chances it faced, 14th in the league.

Carter Hart went 22-23-10 with a .9069 and a 2.94 in 55 games at 25, facing 1,665 shots. His career line across 201 games is a .9056.

Felix Sandstrom went 3-12-3 with an .8800 and a 3.72 in 20 games, facing 575 shots — the worst figure in this chapter. His career line across 25 games is an .8870.

Samuel Ersson went 6-3-0 with an .8991 in 12 games at 24, facing 327 — the only Philadelphia goaltender under 25 who has not been given the job.

The crease was the fourteenth-best department in the league on a club that was 24th, 23rd, 29th and 32nd in the four that matter more. Nothing here needs fixing and nothing here will help.

What the Scout Says

A .9069 behind the worst chance profile in the conference, and two men under twenty-five behind him.

Carter Hart is 6-2 and 196 and went 22-23-10 with a .9069 in 55 games at 25, on a career .9056 across 201. He is technically excellent and has spent five seasons behind clubs that concede chances at a bottom-third rate; the career figure is the best evidence available that the record is not his.

Samuel Ersson is 6-3 and 194 and posted an .8991 in 12 games at 24 — the only Philadelphia goaltender under 25 who has not been given the job, and the most interesting unknown on the roster.

Felix Sandstrom posted an .8800 in 20 games, the worst figure in this chapter, on a career .8870 across 25 games.

The crease was the fourteenth-best department in the league on a club that finished twenty-sixth. It is not what is wrong here.

What the Quant Says

32nd in the league at 4.887 expected goals per 60 — the worst power play in hockey — over 4:43 a night, the fifth-fewest power-play minutes of any club. Last by rate, on almost the least ice.

Owen Tippett scored 8 power-play goals, Travis Konecny 5, Scott Laughton 5, Noah Cates 3, Morgan Frost 1 and Rasmus Ristolainen 1.

Travis Konecny has 25 career power-play goals in 488 games, the most on the roster, and Rasmus Ristolainen 15 in 682. Owen Tippett has 11 in 192 — by rate the largest figure here — Marc Staal arrives with 7 in 1,101 and Scott Laughton has 5 in 519.

Twenty-three power-play goals from six men, on the worst unit in the league. There is no man on this roster with thirty career power-play goals, which is a sentence that can be written about no other club in this book.

What the Scout Says

The worst power play in the league, and the roster's career leader has 25 goals on one.

Travis Konecny has 25 career power-play goals in 488 games, the most on this roster and a figure that would rank sixth or seventh on most of the others in this book.

Owen Tippett has 11 in 192 games — by rate the largest figure here — and scored 8, the most on the club. He shoots from the circle and is the only genuine one-timer on the unit.

Scott Laughton has 5 in 519 games and takes the net front. Rasmus Ristolainen has 15 in 682 and takes the point. Marc Staal arrives with 7 in 1,101 games, which is the shape of a defensive defenceman's career.

Last in the league by rate on the fifth-fewest power-play minutes. There is no version of this unit that is fixed by coaching alone.

What the Quant Says

27th in the league at 7.649 expected goals against per 60, over 4:55 a night, 20th in shorthanded time.

Scott Laughton scored 3 shorthanded goals, Travis Konecny 3, Travis Sanheim 1, Noah Cates 1, Rasmus Ristolainen 1 and Nicolas Deslauriers 1. Ryan Poehling scored 2 elsewhere.

Scott Laughton has 7 career shorthanded goals in 519 games, the most on the roster, in ten seasons in one uniform. Nicolas Deslauriers has 3 in 586, Garnet Hathaway arrives with 3 in 457, Travis Konecny has 3 in 488 and Ryan Poehling arrives with 2 in 138.

Nicolas Deslauriers took 136 penalty minutes, second in the league, at 1.68 miles a game. Garnet Hathaway arrives having taken 95 attacking-zone starts against 437 — the third-most extreme deployment in this book.

Six men scored shorthanded on a unit that finished twenty-seventh. The willingness is not the issue.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-seventh in the league, and six men scored shorthanded on it.

Scott Laughton has 7 career shorthanded goals in 519 games across ten seasons in one uniform, and scored 3 from the 29th percentile of zone starts.

Travis Konecny scored 3 shorthanded goals and has 3 in his career, all of them last season — a 5-10 winger who kills penalties by attacking them.

Garnet Hathaway arrives having taken 95 attacking-zone starts against 437, the third-most extreme deployment in this book, with 490 career penalty minutes in 457 games. He is the specialist this unit did not have.

Nicolas Deslauriers took 136 penalty minutes, second in the league, and Nick Seeler 56 in 77 games. The unit is willing, physical and twenty-seventh, and the arrival is the first credible answer to that in some time.