Philadelphia Flyers

What the Quant Says

235 goals, 27th in the league, on the 11th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.610 expected goals per 60. Sixteen places between those two, and the whole of the distance is a power play.

At five-on-five Philadelphia took 51.6 per cent of the shot attempts, 8th, and 52.6 per cent of the expected goals, 6th. Only five clubs in hockey took a larger share of the chances.

And it scored 159 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 167.3 — a shortfall of 8.3, 24th in the league. Eight goals below what the chances were worth, on the sixth-best chance share in the league.

The power play was 31st at 5.720 expected goals per 60 — the worst in the league — over the eighth-most power-play time in hockey. Toronto got 9.084 out of the same kind of ice.

Travis Konecny had 33 goals and 68 points, Owen Tippett 28 goals, Joel Farabee 22 and Tyson Foerster 20 at 22. No player on the roster scored more than 5 power-play goals.

What the Scout Says

Four twenty-goal scorers, none of whom is a power-play weapon.

Travis Konecny is 5-10 and 192 and took 356 attempts at a median of 30 feet, 244 of them on goal, converting 13.5 per cent against a career 12.54. He is the quickest man on the roster in a phone booth, wins pucks he has no business winning at his size, and has 400 points in 564 games.

Owen Tippett took 392 attempts, 289 of them on goal, at a median of 32 feet — the most shots on goal on the club — and converted 9.7 per cent. Joel Farabee took 243 attempts at a 26-foot median with 42 per cent from inside twenty and scored 22.

Tyson Foerster is 6-2 and 215 and scored 20 at 22. Sean Couturier's median attempt was 22 feet, with 46 per cent from inside twenty, and he shot 5.7 per cent on 192 shots. Ryan Poehling took 50 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet and Garnet Hathaway 51 per cent — the two closest shot charts on the roster, on the third and fourth lines.

What the Quant Says

Philadelphia allowed 2.361 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 7th in the league, and conceded 261 goals, 18th.

At five-on-five it conceded 180 goals against an expectation of 150.7. Twenty-nine goals more than the chances called for, and the club's goaltending came in 29.3 goals worse than the shots it faced, 31st in the league. Seventh at keeping the puck away from the net and thirty-first at stopping it.

Travis Sanheim is 6-4 and played 81 games at 23:48 a night, with 10 goals and 34 assists and a minus-20. His ice went 58-77 against an expectation of 62.22-55.88 — four goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and twenty-one more conceded than they called for. That is the largest goaltending deficit of anybody on the club and it belongs to the best defenceman on it.

Cam York played all 82 at 22:37 at 23. Nick Seeler was plus-9 over 1,051 minutes on 78 penalty minutes. Jamie Drysdale arrived from Anaheim and went minus-20 in 34 games, with his ice at 10-30.

Sanheim, York, Seeler and Ristolainen all finished on the right side of the chances, and the club was outscored at five-on-five by twenty-one goals anyway.

What the Scout Says

A 6-4 defenceman taking twenty-four minutes, and the worst career plus-minus in the edition behind him.

Travis Sanheim is 6-4 and 222 and played 81 games at 23:48, with 34 assists and 137 in 497 career games. He is a genuinely large man who defends by skating rather than by contact — 219 career penalty minutes in 497 games — and the first pass out of trouble is the best on the club.

Cam York is 6-0 and 194, 23, and played all 82 at 22:37 with 45 career assists in 169 games. Nick Seeler is 6-3 and took 78 penalty minutes with 263 in 296 career games, and 80 per cent of his attempts came from beyond forty feet.

Rasmus Ristolainen is 6-4 and 208 and carries a career minus-182 — the worst figure of anybody in this edition, by fifty-two goals. He played 31 games and took 57.2 per cent of the chances inside them, which is the argument that the eight seasons in Buffalo were the clubs and not the man.

Egor Zamula is undrafted, 6-3, and took 2 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet. Erik Johnson was first overall in 2006 and has 987 games and a Stanley Cup in Colorado. Jamie Drysdale was sixth overall in 2020 and is 22.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 29.3 goals worse than the chances it faced, 31st in the league. One club did worse. This is the season, and it happened behind the seventh-best chance suppression in hockey.

Samuel Ersson went 23-19-7 with an .8904 and a 2.82 in 51 games, facing 1,204 shots, with 4 shutouts. He is 24, a fifth-round pick, and his career line across 63 games is an .8922. His .8904 was tied for the eighth-lowest save percentage of any goaltender who played twenty-five games, and of the eight at or below him only Joonas Korpisalo played more.

Carter Hart played 26 games and is no longer with the club. Cal Petersen took 5 and Felix Sandstrom 5, and neither is on the roster either. Three goaltenders left a crease that will now be Ersson's.

Ivan Fedotov played 3 games and went 0-1-1 with an .8113. He is 6-7 — the tallest goaltender in this edition — 27 years old, a seventh-round pick from 2015, and those three games are his entire NHL career.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-nine goals lost behind the seventh-best chance suppression in the league.

Samuel Ersson is 6-3 and 194 and plays a controlled, positional game without much athleticism in it. Four shutouts in 51 games and five in a 63-game career at an .8922. The .8904 was tied for the eighth-lowest of any goaltender who played twenty-five games, and he played more of them than all but one man on that list. He is 24 and a fifth-round pick and this was his first season as a starter.

Ivan Fedotov is 6-7 and 209 — the tallest goaltender in this edition — and has played 3 NHL games. At that size he takes away the top of the net without moving, and the questions are all about how he recovers across a crease that large. An .8113 across 53 shots says nothing either way.

Philadelphia allowed the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 at even strength in the league and conceded twenty-nine more than the shots called for. There is no version of this roster that becomes a playoff club without solving that, and the two men currently in the crease have 66 NHL games between them.

What the Quant Says

32nd in the league at 5.720 expected goals per 60 — the worst rate in hockey — over 5:19 a night, the eighth-most power-play time of any club. High volume, last place by rate. Anaheim was 31st at 5.874 and Toronto was first at 9.084.

No player on this roster scored more than 5 power-play goals. Owen Tippett scored 5, Travis Konecny 4, Tyson Foerster 4, Sean Couturier 3, Morgan Frost 3 and Bobby Brink 3. Spread evenly across eleven men, which is what a unit with no shooter and no bumper looks like.

Sean Couturier has 30 career power-play goals in 795 games, the largest total on the club, and Travis Konecny 29 in 564. Cam York has 1 in 169 games and Jamie Drysdale 1 in 147, which is what the two men running the points have produced so far.

Thirty-two clubs, and Philadelphia converted its chances at the worst rate of any of them while taking the ninth-most time. There is no piece of this roster harder to explain and none easier to improve.

What the Scout Says

The worst rate in the league on the ninth-most time, and no obvious reason for it on the roster.

Sean Couturier has 30 career power-play goals in 795 games, the most on the club, and scored 3. Travis Konecny has 29 in 564 and scored 4. Owen Tippett scored 5, which led the club, and has 16 in 270 games.

Tyson Foerster is 6-2 and 215 and scored 4 at 22, which is the closest thing here to a net-front man. Bobby Brink is 5-8 and 169 and scored 3 in 57 games, and is the smallest man on the roster by two inches.

Cam York and Jamie Drysdale are the two defencemen the unit runs through and they are 23 and 22 with 2 career power-play goals between them. A power play with no thirty-goal shooter, no large man in the paint and two young defencemen at the points finished last in the league, and every one of those three problems is fixable.

What the Quant Says

4th in the league at 6.126 expected goals against per 60, over 5:04 a night, the thirteenth-most shorthanded time in hockey. Ordinary volume, genuinely excellent rate — and the one part of the club that finished where the underlying play said it should.

Travis Konecny scored 6 shorthanded goals, the most of anybody in this edition, and has 9 in 564 career games. Ryan Poehling scored 3 and Scott Laughton 2, and Travis Sanheim, Tyson Foerster and Garnet Hathaway each scored one.

Sean Couturier has 795 games of exactly this work and Nick Seeler blocks shots at 6-3 on 78 penalty minutes. Garnet Hathaway is undrafted with 622 career penalty minutes in 539 games.

Fourteen shorthanded goals from six different players is a club that attacks while a man down, and a fourth-place kill on the thirteenth-most time is real work done.

What the Scout Says

Fourth in the league by rate, and eleven shorthanded goals from six men.

Travis Konecny scored 6 shorthanded, the most of anybody in this edition, and has 9 in 564 career games. He kills by pressuring the puck at the blue line rather than sitting in a box, which is where six of them came from.

Ryan Poehling scored 3 shorthanded and has 5 in 215 career games. Scott Laughton scored 2 and has 9 in 601. Sean Couturier has 5 career shorthanded goals in 795 games and has been killing penalties since he was 18.

Nick Seeler is 6-3 and 197 and blocks shots on 263 career penalty minutes in 296 games. Travis Sanheim killed at 6-4 and scored one shorthanded. Garnet Hathaway is undrafted, 6-2, and has 622 career penalty minutes in 539 games.

A fourth-ranked kill on the thirteenth-most shorthanded time is the one place this club's result matched its play. It is also the only one.