Philadelphia Flyers

What the Quant Says

250 goals from the 26th-ranked chance-creating team in the league, propped up by finishing 5.8 above expectation, 13th.

The scoring is spread and none of it is spectacular: Travis Konecny 68 points, Trevor Zegras 67, Matvei Michkov 51 at 21, Owen Tippett 28 goals, Christian Dvorak 51 points. The shot profiles are the best thing here — Dvorak takes 64 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, a median of 14; Noah Cates 58 per cent from a median of 15; Denver Barkey 57 per cent at 21. That is a club being taught to shoot from the right places.

Zegras posted the best on-ice rate among the forwards at the 75th percentile. Konecny's 68 points sit on top of an 18th-percentile possession share, which is the one headline number that does not hold up.

What the Scout Says

Creativity in short supply everywhere else in this division, delivered by men who should not be able to sustain it. Matvei Michkov does things with the puck in tight that look improvised and are not — the same moves recur, which is how you know they are practised — and he goes to the middle rather than settling for the wall. Trevor Zegras finally attached the creativity that made him a top-10 pick to a full season, and he still does not win wall battles or go to the net front, which was the entire criticism before he arrived and has not changed. Travis Konecny is quick and inventive with a genuinely good release, and the playmaking is now the larger half of him.

The finishing comes from elsewhere. Owen Tippett is among the quicker wingers in the league in a straight line and arrives at pace with a defenceman turning, which is what makes a middling shot chart produce goals. Tyson Foerster's shot is genuinely heavy and his skating caps how much ice he can be given, and the question about him is entirely whether he plays. Christian Dvorak stands in exactly the right place and loses the shifts around it. Noah Cates and Noel Acciari do the supporting work properly. Denver Barkey is the page to watch — a rookie who already knows the hard part and gets removed from pucks by grown defencemen and goes back for more.

What the Quant Says

4th in the league in even-strength expected goals against at 2.35 per 60, and the reason a 26th-ranked offence finished with a positive goal differential.

Travis Sanheim plays 24:13 a night at the 70th percentile and had the goals go 68-62 in his favour. Cam York takes 22:32, Jamie Drysdale 21:33 at 24 — the sixth pick in 2020 finally playing top-pair minutes. Nick Seeler is the ballast, 453 games and a median shot from 55 feet. Rasmus Ristolainen returned for 44 games at the 58th percentile.

There is no star on this blue line and no weak link either: every regular finished between the 50th and 70th percentile. That is a coached defence rather than a talented one, and it is the club's whole identity.

What the Scout Says

2 puck-movers and 4 men who defend by making things unpleasant. Travis Sanheim skates excellently for 6-4, exits the zone with the puck rather than chipping it, and clears his own crease and closes gaps without lunging — the most complete defenceman here by a distance. Jamie Drysdale has among the better sets of feet on any blue line, escapes forechecks by turning through them, and joins the rush cleanly; he cannot clear a crease and loses net-front battles routinely, and avoids the problem with feet and anticipation, which works until a series where somebody makes it the plan. Cam York is the third mover, with a quick accurate first pass and the same trouble in front of his own net.

The counterweight is enormous. Nick Seeler is on the ice to defend and to block shots, and he blocks a great many and has the injuries to prove it. Rasmus Ristolainen hits, blocks and owns the crease, and has been steadily respectable here after 9 years of being one of the most criticised defencemen in the league. Simon Benoit clears the front of the net and blocks at a high rate and skates poorly enough to cap everything else. David Jiricek was drafted 6th overall as an offensive defenceman with a heavy shot and 4 seasons in there is no evidence of either. It is a blue line without a driver and with no shortage of men who will pay a physical price.

What the Quant Says

Dan Vladar took 52 games, Samuel Ersson 33 before leaving for Ottawa, Aleksei Kolosov 4. Together the goaltending came out 3.0 goals better than the chances faced, 14th in the league — very slightly positive, on a club that gives up fewer chances than almost anyone.

This is the least eventful goaltending section in the book, and for Philadelphia that is close to ideal: the structure in front is doing the work, and it needs the net to be merely adequate rather than excellent. The risk is depth — Ersson's departure leaves Vladar with no established partner.

What the Scout Says

2 goaltenders whose limitations are known and neither of whom is the reason for anything. Dan Vladar is 6-5 and takes away a great deal by standing still; the lateral movement is ordinary, and when a play moves him across he is beaten. He spent 6 seasons as somebody's backup before being handed a real workload, and nothing suggests he found it difficult.

Joseph Woll is not spectacular and does not need to be behind a club that concedes low-danger volume. The durability has been the story of his career — he has never played 50 games in a season and has lost long stretches to soft-tissue injuries. He has also had a genuinely difficult 2 years away from the rink, and none of that belongs in a scouting report beyond noting that a win-loss record is not a fair measure of anybody. This is a tandem that holds the position while the club works out whether it can score.

What the Quant Says

9th in the league at 7.60 expected goals per 60, on 4:45 a night, 19th. The best offensive phase on the roster by a distance.

Zegras led it with 10 power-play goals, Michkov 4, Tyson Foerster 3, Tippett 3. On a club that cannot generate at 5-on-5, a top-10 power play is doing a disproportionate share of the scoring, and Michkov and Barkey — both 21, both shooting from inside 20 feet — are the reason to expect it to hold.

What the Scout Says

The unit where this roster's skill concentrates, and it is more interesting than most. Matvei Michkov is the 1 player here who can beat a killer one-on-one from a standing start, and he will take the puck to the middle to do it. Trevor Zegras is the distributor — a seam pass nobody has seen is the most valuable thing a power play can own. Travis Konecny works the off wing with a quick release.

The close work is where it gets unusual. Denver Barkey does his shooting in the crease at 171 pounds, and Christian Dvorak stands closer to the net than almost any regular forward in this edition — 2 small men doing a large man's job, which is either courage or a shortage of alternatives. Tyson Foerster's shot is the heavy option when he is available. Cam York and Jamie Drysdale supply the movement from the point without either being a feared shooter. It is a unit that manufactures rather than overpowers.

What the Quant Says

6th in the league at 6.91 expected goals against per 60, over 4:58 a game, 13th.

The same defensive structure that produces the fourth-best even-strength results produces a top-6 kill, and Tippett's 3 shorthanded goals are the pressure showing up on the scoresheet. Between 3rd at even strength, 6th on the kill and 8th on the power play, Philadelphia is a genuinely well-coached hockey team that cannot score — and with continuity at 80.4 per cent, 11th, that is what it will be again unless Michkov and Zegras take a step.

What the Scout Says

The clearest strength on the roster and it is entirely a matter of who is on it. Noah Cates and Noel Acciari are the model of the type — positionally exact, willing in the lanes, and neither of them needs protecting afterwards. Sean Couturier still does the difficult half properly and his reads remain the best on the club even with the skating gone. Zachary Aston-Reese exists for this work. Carl Grundstrom forechecks hard and is difficult to knock over.

The blue line is what makes it a top unit. Nick Seeler blocks shots at a league-leading rate; Rasmus Ristolainen and Simon Benoit both own the front of their own net outright; Travis Sanheim closes gaps without lunging and clears the crease. Slow feet cost a defenceman less here than at even strength, so the club's heaviest men are at their most useful. The cost sits with the forwards: Zegras's 62 penalty minutes are mostly frustration, Michkov spends time in the box because he will not adjust for the 40 pounds he gives away, and Nikita Grebenkin's edge runs at one of the higher rates on the club.