Philadelphia Flyers

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference · 20 reports in the 2022-23 edition.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2021-22 · 82 games · 202 for, 211 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 46.6% 27th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 46.0% 28th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.59 8th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.91 8th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +4.1 15th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -7.2 19th of 32

Philadelphia Flyers finished close to the chances underneath them at both ends. The record is roughly what the play deserved.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 26.8; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 4.3%; of skater points
From under 26: 48.7%; of skater points
Homegrown: 57.8%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 80.4%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Thirty-first in the league in goals scored off the 8th-largest power-play workload in hockey, and the two longest shots at the position on one blue line.

Who this names 14 of 20 on the roster · 63% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Tony DeAngelo, Kevin Hayes, Scott Laughton, Rasmus Ristolainen, Travis Sanheim, Nick Seeler.

What the Quant Says

25-46-11, 61 points, 29th in the league. 211 goals for, 31st; 298 against, 27th.

And 27th in attempt share, 28th in chance share, 24th in expected goals per 60 at even strength, 29th in expected goals against. The process is bad in every column and the record is exactly what it predicts.

Finishing rated 16th at plus-4.1 and goaltending 19th at minus-7.2 — the two columns where a bad club usually finds its excuse, and neither of them is one here.

The five-on-five ledger: goals for 159 against an expectation of 154.9, goals against 189 against an expectation of 181.8. Four goals of surplus in front and seven of deficit behind, across a whole season.

Nothing was unlucky. A club that finished 31st in scoring took the 8th-most power-play time in the league to do it.

What the Scout Says

This is a club whose numbers are unusually consistent with each other, which is the worst thing that can be said about it.

27th in attempts, 28th in chances, 29th in expected goals against, 31st in goals, 29th in the standings. Finishing was 16th and goaltending 19th — the two variance columns came out near the middle, so there is no correction waiting.

The one genuine mismatch runs the other way. The 8th-largest power-play workload in hockey produced the 22nd-best rate on it and 211 goals overall. A club with that much man-advantage time and that little scoring has a personnel problem, not a schedule problem.

The deployment is the second thing worth setting out. Patrick Brown started 24.4 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end — the 6th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — Max Willman 33.2 per cent at the 30th-lowest and Zack MacEwen 35.6 at the 49th. Three of the fifty hardest chairs in hockey, and all three of them are fourth-line forwards.

At the other end Owen Tippett started at 59.2 per cent, the 67th-highest of the same 652, and Joel Farabee at 56.0. Neither of them cleared 51.3 per cent of the expected goals out of it.

The age profile is the case for patience and it is thinner than Ottawa's. Cam York 21, Joel Farabee 22, Morgan Frost 23, Owen Tippett 23, Carter Hart 24, Travis Konecny 25, Ivan Provorov 25, Felix Sandstrom 25. Eight men under twenty-six, and only one of them a defenceman. Justin Braun is 35, James van Riemsdyk 33 and Nicolas Deslauriers 31.

Who this names 4 of 11 forwards · 42% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Patrick Brown, Nicolas Deslauriers, Joel Farabee, Morgan Frost, Scott Laughton, Zack MacEwen, Max Willman.

What the Quant Says

211 goals, 31st in the league, off the 24th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.449 per 60). Only Arizona scored fewer.

And the power-play workload was the 8th-largest in hockey at 4.32 minutes a night. The rate over it was 22nd. More time than twenty-nine other clubs and less to show for it than twenty-one.

James van Riemsdyk scored twenty-four goals, nine of them a man up, off the 53rd-highest slot share of 393 forwards.

Travis Konecny took 220 shots — a career high — and scored sixteen, a career-low 7.3 per cent after three straight seasons of twenty-four.

Claude Giroux has gone to Ottawa, Cam Atkinson is off the roster and Oskar Lindblom to San Jose. Tony DeAngelo arrives with fifty-one points.

What the Scout Says

Travis Konecny took the most shots of his career and scored the fewest goals per shot of his career. 220 shots at 7.3 per cent, the 56th-lowest rate of 393 forwards, against a career 953-shot record at 11.5. That is the single most likely thing on this roster to come back on its own.

James van Riemsdyk put sixty-two per cent of his attempts in the slot at a 20-foot median and hit at the 49th-lowest rate of the 393. A 6-3 forward who lives in the crease and draws the 36th-fewest penalties in the league is a strange object and it has been the same object for thirteen years.

Kevin Hayes produced the 75th-percentile even-strength point rate on the 41st-lowest expected-goal share of 393 forwards. Both halves of that are extreme and they disagree.

Owen Tippett has the 19th-most takeaways of 393 forwards, a 95.5 mph shot at the 87th percentile and 23.0 mph at the 82nd — and 51.3 per cent of the expected goals out of the softest chair on the club.

Joel Farabee's ice went 43-39 against an expectation of 30.47-36.73. Twelve and a half goals of on-ice finishing surplus is not a skill and it is a third of his case.

Who this names 5 of 7 defencemen · 71% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Justin Braun, Tony DeAngelo.

What the Quant Says

298 goals against, 27th in the league, off the 29th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.881 per 60). The structure is close to the worst in hockey and the crease made it slightly worse.

Justin Braun's median shot travelled 56.9 feet, the longest of the 202 qualified defencemen, and Nick Seeler's 56.4 feet is the 3rd-longest. One blue line, two of the three men in the league who shoot from furthest away.

Ivan Provorov played 24:53 a night, the 13th-heaviest of the 202, with the 23rd-most giveaways.

Rasmus Ristolainen hit 9.75 times per 60 — the 9th-most of the 202 — and covered the 3rd-least ground of the 192 the tracking measures.

Travis Sanheim carried the largest pairing on the club: 47.5 per cent of the expected goals with Ristolainen, 49.8 apart from him, and 42.9 for Ristolainen apart from Sanheim.

What the Scout Says

The shot chart is the chapter. Justin Braun's median attempt travelled 56.9 feet and Nick Seeler's 56.4 — the longest and 3rd-longest of the 202 qualified defencemen. Ivan Provorov's is 54 feet at the 88th percentile. Three of six regulars shoot from the blue line and nowhere else.

Travis Sanheim is the exception and the best defenceman here. Nineteen per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 92nd percentile, at a 45-foot median in the 7th — he gets down the ice, and 8.74 miles per 60 at the 83rd percentile says how.

Rasmus Ristolainen carries a 101.4 mph shot, the 8th-hardest of 192, and scored twice on ninety-seven attempts. 9.75 hits per 60 is the 9th-most of the 202 and 7.83 miles per 60 the 3rd-least of the 192.

Nick Seeler took the softest chair on the blue line at 51.7 per cent and posted its worst shares: 40.6 per cent of the expected goals, the 4th-lowest of the 202.

Cam York is 21, played thirty games at nineteen minutes and took 48.6 per cent of the expected goals — the best figure on the blue line, off the smallest sample on it.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

19th in the league at minus-7.2 goals saved above expectation, from two goaltenders who were nearly the same and neither of whom was good.

Carter Hart posted .9049 across 45 games and 1,441 shots, 34th of the 53 who played twenty-five. Martin Jones .9001 across thirty-five, 40th of the same 53, and he has gone to Seattle.

Hart is 24 and has already faced 4,238 NHL shots, at .9170, .9136, .8766 and .9049 in four seasons. Four hundred points of spread across four years is the largest open question on this roster.

Felix Sandstrom is 25 and has played five NHL games. He is the only other goaltender the club has.

Behind them, the 29th-ranked expected-goals-against rate in the league at even strength. A minus-7.2 through that structure is closer to par than it looks.

What the Scout Says

Carter Hart is 24 and has faced 4,238 NHL shots. .9170, .9136, .8766, .9049. Four seasons, four hundred points of spread, and a career figure of .9051 that is the average of a good goaltender and a bad one rather than the description of either.

Last season is the biggest sample of the four and the third-best of them. 1,441 shots at .9049 is 34th of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games.

The 2020-21 season is the one that needs an answer. .8766 across 721 shots sits between two seasons above .9130 and one at .9049, and nothing in this book explains it.

Martin Jones took thirty-five games at .9001, 40th of the same 53, and has gone to Seattle. Felix Sandstrom has five NHL games and 177 shots. There is no third goaltender.

In front of them, the 29th-ranked expected-goals-against rate in the league. The crease rated 19th at minus-7.2, which through that structure is close to par — and the club is now betting a rebuild on which of Hart's four seasons was the real one.

Who this names 7 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

22nd in the league at 5.785 expected goals per 60, over 4.32 minutes a night — the 3rd-largest workload in hockey. The single worst mismatch on this roster.

Only Minnesota at 5.74 and Colorado at 5.45 spent longer on the power play. They finished 5th and 2nd in the league on points; Philadelphia finished 29th and 31st in goals.

Ivan Provorov took 2:14 a night at the point, the 83rd percentile among defencemen, and twenty-three per cent of his points came there.

Travis Konecny 2:44, Kevin Hayes 2:43, James van Riemsdyk 2:37, Joel Farabee 2:29. Nine of van Riemsdyk's twenty-four goals came on it and only nine per cent of Farabee's points did.

Tony DeAngelo arrives having taken 3:03 a night in Carolina with thirty-nine per cent of his points on it — the 13th-largest power-play workload of the 202 defencemen.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-second in the league on the 3rd-largest workload in it. Every other number in this chapter is a symptom of that one.

Minnesota and Colorado are the only clubs that spent longer a man up. They finished 5th and 2nd in the league on points. Philadelphia finished 29th and scored 211 goals.

James van Riemsdyk took nine of his twenty-four goals there off 2:37 a night, which is the clearest return anybody produced on it.

Joel Farabee took 2:29 a night at the 72nd percentile and nine per cent of his points came on it. Morgan Frost 1:53 and thirteen per cent. Two young forwards given real power-play time and neither converted it.

Tony DeAngelo arrives having taken 3:03 a night — the 13th-most of 202 defencemen — with thirty-nine per cent of his points on it and forty-one assists behind him. He is the one signing that addresses the actual problem.

Who this names 8 men details

What the Quant Says

20th in the league at 7.045 expected goals against per 60, over 4:41 a night — the 18th-largest workload. Middling in both halves, which on this roster counts as a strength.

Ivan Provorov took 2:40 a night, the 87th percentile among defencemen, on top of the 13th-heaviest overall load of the 202. Justin Braun 2:10, Travis Sanheim 2:08.

Scott Laughton killed 1:44 a night at the 82nd percentile among forwards and scored two of his eleven goals short-handed. Patrick Brown 1:43 at the 81st.

2021-22 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.