Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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4

Nick Jensen

Ottawa Senators Defense

Plus-18 at 20:13 a night, and his ice conceded eleven fewer goals than the chances said it should have.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17DET494913-712000596.817:45
2017-18DET8101515-8270001070.016:15
2018-19DET/WSH8021820+421000942.119:51
2019-20WSH68088+113000610.017:49
2020-21WSH5321214+514000603.317:18
2021-22WSH7651621+3221001885.719:21
2022-23WSH7752429-1180001094.620:37
2023-24WSH7811314-910000711.419:38
2024-25OTT7131821+186000773.920:13
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—63322133155+351420017263.018:51

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 18 assists in 71 games — 21 points at 20:13 a night, plus-18, on 6 penalty minutes, which is the lowest total of anybody in this chapter who played more than 50 games.

50.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 63rd percentile. His ice went 53-45 against an expectation of 48.54-47.28 — eleven fewer goals against than the chances predicted, which is the largest defensive surplus on the roster.

The Finesse Game

77 attempts in 71 games at a median of 53 feet with 73 per cent from beyond 40. He does not shoot and he does not pretend to; 3 goals is a career-typical number.

The value is the first pass, which is quick, short and almost never wrong. 18 assists is what a defensive defenceman produces when the breakout works.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 202 and he defends by position rather than by force. He closes the gap early, takes the puck with his stick, and steers the play to the wall.

6 penalty minutes in 71 games at twenty minutes a night is close to unheard of. He is essentially never beaten badly enough to need to foul, and he is a first-unit penalty killer for exactly that reason.

The Intangibles

A fifth-round pick in 2009 who did not become a regular until he was 26, and is now 633 games and 155 points into it across three organisations.

He turned 35 in the autumn and played the best defensive season of his career. Ottawa acquired him from Washington in 2024 and paired him with Chabot, and the pair was a large part of why the club finished 6th in the league at suppressing chances.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.08 penalty minutes a game over 71, 1st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He closes the gap early, takes the puck with his stick, and steers the play to the wall.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “He is essentially never beaten badly enough to need to foul, and he is a first-unit penalty killer for exactly that reason.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He is essentially never beaten badly enough to need to foul, and he is a first-unit penalty killer for exactly that reason.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “6-0 and 202 and he defends by position rather than by force.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,208 minutes

Expected goals
50.7%
60th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.1%
65th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 45 against. Expected: 48.5 and 47.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
42nd
Numbers
60th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 71 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
78th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.61 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.07 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.3 mph
65th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1208 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
OTT took 50.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.7% — 0.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,208 minutes at five-on-five — 85th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Thomas Chabot51.2%48.4%55.5%
Tim Stützle56.9%47.5%52.2%
Drake Batherson49.8%51.0%49.2%

51.2% together, 48.4% for him apart and 55.5% for Chabot apart. Chabot was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

121 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 73% from beyond forty.