Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

18

Tim Stützle

Ottawa Senators Center

79 points and the 81st percentile of chances, on ice for 28 goals against an expectation of 46.89 — the largest finishing hole on any forward in this chapter.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21OTT53121729-181440211110.815:44
2021-22OTT79223658-273771417612.518:25
2022-23OTT78395190-354103322817.121:16
2023-24OTT75185270-17281021929.421:07
2024-25OTT8224557904650216214.819:49
2025-26 so far
Career367115211326-651792741386913.219:30

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

24 goals and 55 assists in 82 games — 79 points at 19:49 a night, even on the year, with 46 penalty minutes.

53.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 81st percentile. And his ice was outscored 28-40 against an expectation of 46.89-41.05. Nineteen goals of scoring simply did not arrive, which is the single largest gap on any forward here and is not a thing a player controls.

The Finesse Game

The skating is the best on the club and among the better first steps in the league. He gains the line under control at speed, he does not have to slow down to make a play, and he beats a defenceman wide as a matter of routine.

162 shots at a median of 24 feet with 40 per cent from inside 20 — he goes to the middle. 55 assists says the instinct is still to pass, and the shot is good enough that it should not be. Two seasons before last he scored 39 goals; he has not been near that since.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 187 and neither heavy nor soft. He takes contact to hold onto the puck and he does not seek it out, which at his speed is the correct trade.

46 penalty minutes in a full season is a man who is not fouling to survive. He is not going to win a puck on the wall against a defenceman and the club has never asked him to.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2020, 367 games, 326 points, and signed long. He is 23 and has been the best forward on this roster since he was 20.

The record is a minus-65 and a first playoff series, lost in six. The numbers underneath the last one say he was badly served by them.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,201 minutes

Expected goals
53.3%
81st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.5%
90th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 40 against. Expected: 46.9 and 41.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
88th
Numbers
81st

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1201 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
OTT took 50.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.3% — 3.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,201 minutes at five-on-five — 85th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Claude Giroux52.3%54.4%45.4%
Brady Tkachuk52.4%54.2%57.9%
Thomas Chabot59.1%49.3%49.9%

52.3% together, 54.4% for him apart and 45.4% for Giroux apart. Giroux was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Giroux than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

230 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.