This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Nikolas Matinpalo
Ottawa Senators Defense
An undrafted Finn who played his first 41 NHL games at 26 and took 84 per cent of his shot attempts from beyond 40 feet.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | OTT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 7:00 |
| 2024-25 | OTT | 41 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 2.3 | 12:37 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 45 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 2.2 | 12:07 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
1 goal and 3 assists in 41 games — 4 points at 12:37 a night, minus-2, with 20 penalty minutes.
48.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 39th percentile, across 486 minutes. His ice went 24-27 against an expectation of 17.98-18.82 — a third pairing that conceded more than the chances said it should have, on a sample small enough that it settles nothing.
The Finesse Game
43 attempts at a median of 54 feet with 84 per cent from beyond 40. One goal in 41 games. There is no offensive component to this player and the club has never asked for one.
The first pass is simple and mostly correct. He does not carry the puck and he does not attempt the play that turns into a rush the other way.
The Physical Game
6-3 and 213 and physically capable at NHL level, which was the open question when he arrived. He finishes checks and he defends the front of the net.
20 penalty minutes in 41 games is a slightly high rate for a third-pairing defenceman and most of it is the stick foul of a man playing at the edge of his speed.
The Intangibles
Undrafted, and he did not leave Finland until Ottawa signed him, arriving in North America at 25 after seven seasons of Finnish and Swedish professional hockey.
45 NHL games. He is 27, which means the ceiling is roughly whatever this is, and a seventh defenceman who can play third-pair minutes without embarrassing anybody has value on a club with this much money committed above him.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 486 minutes
- Expected goals
- 48.9%
- 40th pct
- Shot attempts
- 48.5%
- 37th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 24 for, 27 against. Expected: 18.0 and 18.8.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 27 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 486 minutes at five-on-five
- Tyler Kleven69%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- OTT took 50.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.9% — 1.3 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third pair, 486 minutes at five-on-five — 15th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Kleven | 45.5% | 54.7% | 44.2% |
| Tim Stützle | 55.7% | 45.7% | 53.0% |
| Adam Gaudette | 39.6% | 52.4% | 49.7% |
45.5% together, 54.7% for him apart and 44.2% for Kleven apart. He was better away from Kleven, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Kleven.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
62 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 7 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 84% from beyond forty.