New York Islanders

What the Quant Says

231 goals, 24th in the league, off the 23rd-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.477 per 60). The output matches the input almost exactly, and both are poor.

Brock Nelson scored 37 — eleven more than he had ever scored — on the 6th-highest shooting percentage of the 393 qualified forwards. Anders Lee added 28 from the 2nd-highest slot share in the league.

Mathew Barzal produced 59 points, the lowest full-season total of his career, out of the 22nd-softest deployment of 652 skaters.

Noah Dobson's 51 points is 17th among the 343 defencemen in the league, at twenty-two. Forty-three per cent of them came on the power play.

What the Scout Says

Anders Lee took 75 per cent of his shots from the slot — the 2nd-highest share of 393 forwards — at a 15-foot median that is the 6th-shortest. He also covered the 3rd-least ground of the 365 the tracking measures. There is no ambiguity anywhere in that file.

Josh Bailey drew fewer penalties per 60 than any of the 393 qualified forwards, hit at the 4th percentile, covered the 4th-least ground of 365 and took the 5th-fewest sprints. Six penalty minutes in seventy-four games. He is the most frictionless forward in the league and produced forty-four points.

Mathew Barzal was handed the 22nd-softest deployment of 652 skaters and finished below fifty in both chance share and attempt share, with the 4th-most giveaways of 393 forwards.

Oliver Wahlstrom has the 13th-hardest shot of 365 forwards and the 15th-slowest top speed, and takes 38 per cent of his shots from the slot — the 9th percentile.

Brock Nelson covered more ground than any Islander forward and shot 21.6 per cent. Only one of those two comes back.

What the Quant Says

237 goals against, 10th in the league, off the 27th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.819 per 60).

That gap is seventeen places and it is entirely the crease. The skaters conceded 182.2 expected goals at five-on-five and the club allowed 160.

Adam Pelech is the one defenceman whose own numbers hold up: 51.3 per cent of the expected goals and 50.2 per cent of the attempts, the only Islander regular above fifty in either, out of the harder half of the deployment.

Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene played 2,340 five-on-five minutes between them at 44.9 and 44.2 per cent of the expected goals. Both are off the roster. Alexander Romanov arrives at twenty-two with the 19th-most hits of 202 defencemen and the 22nd-percentile chance share.

What the Scout Says

Three of the twenty least mobile defencemen in the league play here. Scott Mayfield covered the 2nd-least ground of the 192 the tracking measures, Adam Pelech the 12th-least and Ryan Pulock the 20th-least. Pulock and Pelech are also the club's two best defencemen, so the stillness is not obviously a fault.

Ryan Pulock took fewer penalties per 60 than any of the 202 qualified defencemen — two minutes in fifty-six games — while carrying the 3rd-hardest shot of 192 and the 7th-most blocks of 202. Three top-ten figures in one file.

Noah Dobson has the 3rd-best penalty differential of the 202 and the 94th-percentile giveaway rate, which is a twenty-two-year-old's file in both directions.

Sebastian Aho is 5-10 and 180 pounds, one of eleven defencemen in this book at or below that weight, and got thirty-six games.

What the Quant Says

3rd in the league at plus-22.2 goals saved above expectation. Only Vancouver and the Rangers rated higher.

Ilya Sorokin posted .9251 across 52 games — 2nd of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five, behind Igor Shesterkin — with seven shutouts, 2nd in the league behind Jacob Markstrom.

Two NHL seasons: .9183 across 563 shots and .9251 across 1,643. Career .9234 on 2,206.

Semyon Varlamov took the other 31 games at .9110, 23rd of the 53, and his career figure across 16,837 shots is .9160. At 34 he is the most experienced goaltender in this batch and no longer the starter.

What the Scout Says

Ilya Sorokin's .9251 is the 2nd-best of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games, and he did it behind the 29th-ranked possession club in the league.

Two seasons, 2,206 shots, .9234. The sample is short and 1,643 shots in one year is not.

The club conceded 160 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 182.2. Look at the individual ledgers and the same twenty-two goals appear everywhere: Noah Dobson's ice gave back thirteen fewer than the model asked, Adam Pelech's twelve fewer, Jean-Gabriel Pageau's ten fewer, Anthony Beauvillier's seven fewer.

Every good defensive number in this chapter is partly his. That is the correct way to read a club 27th in chance suppression and 10th in goals allowed, and it is the single largest caution attached to every other report here.

Semyon Varlamov at 34 is a league-average backup with the longest record in the batch — 16,837 career shots at .9160. He is not the reason the club finished 3rd in goaltending and he is a perfectly good reason it will not fall far if Sorokin misses time.

What the Quant Says

18th in the league at 6.793 expected goals per 60, over 4:19 a night — the 29th-largest workload. The unit is ordinary and it barely plays.

Noah Dobson took 2:37 a night, the 88th percentile among defencemen, and 43 per cent of his points there — the 95th. Mathew Barzal 2:40 and 34 per cent.

Anders Lee took 28 per cent of his points on it, Anthony Beauvillier 32, Oliver Wahlstrom 33.

Four minutes and nineteen seconds a night is the fourth-smallest power play in the league. A club 24th in goals cannot afford to be 29th in the amount of the man advantage it draws.

What the Scout Says

Four minutes and nineteen seconds a night is the 31st-largest power play in the league, and the unit rated 18th on it.

Noah Dobson is the driver: 2:37 a night at the 88th percentile among defencemen, 43 per cent of his points there at the 95th, and 190 shots — the most on the club.

Mathew Barzal takes 2:40 and 34 per cent of his points on it, from a man with the 18th-percentile shot speed.

Anthony Beauvillier took 32 per cent of his points on the power play and posted the 19th-percentile even-strength rate. Oliver Wahlstrom 33 per cent from twelve minutes a night.

A club that draws this few penalties and converts at this rate has the smallest margin in the league for a forward whose scoring is a third power play.

What the Quant Says

6th in the league at 5.669 expected goals against per 60, over 4:37 a night. The best special-teams result on the club by a distance.

Adam Pelech and Scott Mayfield each took 2:18 a night. Cal Clutterbuck killed 2:00, Jean-Gabriel Pageau 1:55, Casey Cizikas 1:51, Ryan Pulock 1:36, Zach Parise 1:31.

Pageau has sixteen career short-handed goals, Clutterbuck seventeen and Cizikas ten. That is forty-three between three forwards still on the roster.

A top-six kill on a club that finished 27th in even-strength chance suppression says the structure works when the club is a man down and not when it is even.

What the Scout Says

The fourth line is the identity of this club and it is one of the most extreme units in the book.

Matt Martin hit more often per 60 than any forward in the league bar Ryan Reaves. Cal Clutterbuck was 4th. Casey Cizikas took the 10th-lowest attempt share of 393 forwards.

All three are among the forty most buried skaters in hockey: Cizikas 31.1 per cent offensive-zone starts, Clutterbuck 33.8, Martin 34.7 — the 25th, 32nd and 40th-lowest of 652.

And they are far better together than apart. Cizikas took 46.8 per cent of the attempts with Martin and 33.3 without; 47.6 with Clutterbuck and 37.2 without. None of the three is anything on his own and the line comes out near the club average.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau is the other half of the checking group — 1:55 short-handed, 79th-percentile hits and blocks at 5-11 and 180 pounds, and ten fewer goals against on his ice than the model asked.