Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

72

Anders Lee

New York Islanders Left Wing

The 2nd-highest slot share of 393 forwards and the 6th-shortest median shot distance, from the 3rd-least mobile forward the tracking measures.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13NYI2112-30000250.08:12
2013-14NYI229514+3142006813.215:43
2014-15NYI76251641+93350619712.714:24
2015-16NYI80152136-2518031838.214:35
2016-17NYI81341852+95690619117.815:35
2017-18NYI82402262-2544140220819.217:16
2018-19NYI82282351+2058100520413.717:05
2019-20NYI68202343+84720619510.318:18
2020-21NYI2712719+11123038015.017:32
2021-22NYI76281846-113490315917.616:38
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—596212154366+1934962034148714.316:15

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

76 games, 28 goals and 18 assists for 46 points at 16:38 a night, minus-11, thirty-four penalty minutes, 159 shots. One hundred and fifty-second overall in 2009, ten seasons, 596 games, 366 points, all of them here.

The Finesse Game

Seventy-five per cent of his shots came from the slot — the 2nd-highest share of the 393 forwards who played forty games — at a 15-foot median that is the 6th-shortest.

There is no ambiguity about how this man scores. 17.6 per cent shooting is the 93rd percentile, on 7.55 shots per 60 at the 55th, and 212 career goals have come the same way.

At 6-3 and 234 pounds he is the heaviest forward on this roster, and three-quarters of his shots come from the slot.

1.83 even-strength points per 60 is the 53rd percentile and twenty-eight per cent of his points came on the power play, where he takes 2:22 a night.

0.76 takeaways per 60 is the 2nd percentile. He does not win pucks; he stands where they arrive.

46.2 per cent of the expected goals is the 19th percentile, out of 58.4 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 87th-highest of 652 skaters. His ice went 52-52 against an expectation of 45.28-52.65 — seven goals of surplus going forward and a goals-against that matched the model exactly.

The Physical Game

4.46 hits per 60 is the 57th percentile and 1.42 blocks the 37th. For a man this size that is modest, and it is consistent with a game played entirely in one nine-foot square.

0.66 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.81 taken.

The Intangibles

8.62 miles per 60 is the 3rd-least of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, at 1.4 bursts per 60 in the 5th percentile and a 21.8 mph top speed in the 18th. Almost nobody in the league moves less.

He is 32, a sixth-round pick with 212 NHL goals, and every one of them was scored from the same place. The shooting percentage, the slot share and the shot distance are the most stable set of numbers in this chapter. The skating is the 3rd percentile of the league and at 32 it does not improve.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    74.6% of his attempts in the slot, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    6 of his 28 goals late or in overtime, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Seventy-five per cent of his shots came from the slot — the 2nd-highest share of the 393 forwards who played forty games — at a 15-foot median that is the 6th-shortest.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “At 6-3 and 234 pounds he is the heaviest forward on this roster, and three-quarters of his shots come from the slot.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,053 minutes

Expected goals
46.2%
24th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.2%
31st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 52 against. Expected: 45.3 and 52.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
33rd
Numbers
24th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 76 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
37th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.39 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.7 mph
58th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1039 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYI took 46.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.2% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,053 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mathew Barzal48.5%44.4%48.0%
Noah Dobson47.6%45.3%46.0%
Brock Nelson44.8%47.2%49.9%

48.5% together, 44.4% for him apart and 48.0% for Barzal apart. He was worse away from Barzal, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Barzal did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

224 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 28 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 65% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.