Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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24

Scott Mayfield

New York Islanders Defense

The 2nd-least ground covered of 192 defencemen, the 31st-most blocks of 202, and the 95th-percentile shot distance.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14NYI5000-3700070.017:22
2015-16NYI6101-411000425.017:07
2016-17NYI25279-135000395.114:08
2017-18NYI4721012-645000583.517:51
2018-19NYI7941519+18680101043.918:44
2019-20NYI675813+853001985.119:57
2020-21NYI5621315+238000792.519:29
2021-22NYI6131518-555002803.819:46
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—346196887+93120134694.018:46

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

61 games, 3 goals and 15 assists at 19:46 a night, minus-5, fifty-five penalty minutes, 80 shots. Thirty-fourth overall in 2011, eight seasons, 346 games, 87 points, 312 career penalty minutes, all of it here.

The Finesse Game

0.96 even-strength points per 60 is the 52nd percentile and none of his points came on the power play — four seconds a night.

3.98 shots per 60 is the 39th percentile at a 55-foot median in the 95th percentile, eleven per cent from the slot, on 88.6 mph — the 10th percentile for shot speed among defencemen. He shoots from the blue line and it does not travel.

2.64 giveaways per 60 is the 91st percentile against 0.75 takeaways at the 38th. The puck leaves him and does not come back.

48.6 per cent of the expected goals and 48.8 per cent of the attempts, from 46.2 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 215th-lowest of 652 skaters.

His ice went 33-43 against an expectation of 40.74-43.02 — eight goals short going forward and a goals-against at the model.

The Physical Game

5.42 blocks per 60 is the 31st-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, at 6-4 and 215 pounds.

3.83 hits per 60 is the 48th percentile. 0.35 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.90 taken is the 15th percentile net, and fifty-five penalty minutes came out of sixty-one games.

2:18 short-handed a night, on a kill that finished 6th in the league.

The Intangibles

7.62 miles per 60 is the 2nd-least of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers, at 6-4 and nearly twenty minutes a night. 1.0 bursts per 60 is the 30th percentile and 21.9 mph the 45th.

Only one defenceman in the league moved less. Whether that is positioning or immobility the chips cannot say, and the 48.8 per cent attempt share on a club that finished 29th argues for the first.

He is 30 with 346 games for one franchise. The blocks, the kill and the stillness are the job; the giveaway rate and the eight goals his ice fell short going forward are what it costs.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “5.42 blocks per 60 is the 31st-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, at 6-4 and 215 pounds.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “7.62 miles per 60 is the 2nd-least of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers, at 6-4 and nearly twenty minutes a night.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,038 minutes

Expected goals
48.6%
44th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.8%
43rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 33 for, 43 against. Expected: 40.7 and 43.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
26th
Numbers
44th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 61 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
63rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.33 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.51 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.6 mph
29th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1038 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYI took 46.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.6% — 1.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,038 minutes at five-on-five — 67th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Adam Pelech51.8%44.1%50.9%
Anthony Beauvillier48.3%48.8%45.4%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau50.8%47.8%45.2%

51.8% together, 44.1% for him apart and 50.9% for Pelech apart. He was worse away from Pelech, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Pelech did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

123 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 77% from beyond forty.