Kieffer Bellows
New York Islanders Left Wing
The 93rd-percentile hit rate and the 1st-percentile takeaway rate, from a first-round pick with 67 NHL games at 24.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | NYI | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18.2 | 10:39 |
| 2020-21 | NYI | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 15.8 | 11:01 |
| 2021-22 | NYI | 45 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 79 | 7.6 | 11:52 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 67 | 11 | 14 | 25 | +2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 109 | 10.1 | 11:33 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
45 games, 6 goals and 13 assists at 11:52 a night, minus-1, nineteen penalty minutes, 79 shots. Nineteenth overall in 2016, three seasons, 67 games, 25 points.
Eleven minutes and fifty-two seconds a night is the 11th percentile for ice time among forwards.
The Finesse Game
8.88 shots per 60 is the 75th percentile at eleven and a half minutes — a real rate — and it went in 7.6 per cent of the time, the 17th percentile.
Forty-six per cent of his shots came from the slot at a 26-foot median, both the wrong side of ordinary, on an 88.3 mph shot at the 38th.
1.76 even-strength points per 60 is the 48th percentile, which for a fourth-line winger in a third season is respectable.
0.67 takeaways per 60 is the 1st percentile — the lowest of any Islander — against 2.92 giveaways at the 96th. That pair is the most damaging thing in the file: he loses the puck at close to the league’s highest rate and never takes one back.
45.2 per cent of the expected goals is the 14th percentile, from 52.9 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 243rd-highest of 652 skaters. His ice went 21-22 against an expectation of 19.06-23.08.
The Physical Game
11.58 hits per 60 is the 29th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 6-1 and 195 pounds in under twelve minutes a night.
1.57 blocks per 60 is the 44th percentile. 0.56 penalties drawn against 0.90 taken is the 13th percentile net, and nineteen penalty minutes came out of forty-five games.
The Intangibles
21.4 mph is the 23rd-slowest top speed of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, at 3.1 bursts per 60 in the 21st percentile — and 10.03 miles per 60 in the 82nd.
He covers a great deal of ground slowly, which is the least useful combination of the three the chips can produce.
He is 24, a first-round pick, and has 67 NHL games across parts of three seasons. The hits are genuine and the puck record is at the bottom of the league, and the club has given him a fourth-line role rather than a look higher up.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
“11.58 hits per 60 is the 29th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 6-1 and 195 pounds in under twelve minutes a night.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 536 minutes
- Expected goals
- 45.2%
- 19th pct
- Shot attempts
- 47%
- 29th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 22 against. Expected: 19.1 and 23.1.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 45 games
- Top speed
- 21.4 mph
- 23rd pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.62 a game
- Distance
- 1.98 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 88.3 mph
- 57th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 · 525 minutes at five-on-five
- Brock Nelson35%
- Josh Bailey21%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- NYI took 46.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.2% — 1.7 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- 536 minutes at five-on-five — 21st percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Dobson | 44.0% | 45.9% | 46.9% |
| Adam Pelech | 45.6% | 45.0% | 52.1% |
| Brock Nelson | 51.2% | 42.5% | 47.1% |
44.0% together, 45.9% for him apart and 46.9% for Dobson apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
106 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.