Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

71

Oliver Wahlstrom

New York Islanders Right Wing

The 13th-hardest shot of 365 forwards and the 15th-slowest top speed, at twenty-two and twelve minutes a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20NYI9000-2400090.010:17
2020-21NYI4412921+2214019412.812:23
2021-22NYI73131124-6745021578.312:04
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—126252045-6999032609.612:03

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

73 games, 13 goals and 11 assists at 12:04 a night, minus-6, seventy-four penalty minutes, 157 shots. Eleventh overall in 2018, three seasons, 126 games, 45 points.

Twelve minutes and four seconds a night is the 13th percentile for ice time among forwards.

The Finesse Game

10.70 shots per 60 is the 28th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games — an enormous rate from the fourth-lowest ice time on the club. 157 shots in twelve minutes a night.

98.8 mph is the 13th-hardest shot of the 365 forwards the tracking covers. That is a genuine, top-four-per-cent weapon.

It went in 8.3 per cent of the time, the 23rd percentile, and the reason is the chart: thirty-eight per cent of his shots came from the slot — the 9th percentile — at a 28-foot median in the 80th. He shoots hard, often, and from too far out.

1.24 even-strength points per 60 is the 18th percentile and thirty-three per cent of his points came on the power play at the 85th.

50.9 per cent of the expected goals is the best share of any Islander forward, from 55.1 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 182nd-highest of 652 skaters. His ice went 29-28 against an expectation of 33.97-32.74.

The Physical Game

6.88 hits per 60 is the 76th percentile and 1.30 blocks the 30th at 6-2 and 205.

1.77 penalties taken per 60 is the 95th percentile among forwards and seventy-four penalty minutes came out of seventy-three games at twelve minutes a night. Against 1.30 drawn at the 87th, the net is the 9th percentile — he is in a great deal of traffic and loses the exchange badly.

The Intangibles

21.3 mph is the 15th-slowest top speed of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, at 2.9 bursts per 60 in the 19th percentile and 9.59 miles per 60 in the 43rd.

A twenty-two-year-old with the 13th-hardest shot in the league and the 15th-slowest top speed is an unusual file, and both halves are near the extreme.

He is 22, an eleventh-overall pick with 126 games. The shot is the asset and where he takes it from is the problem, and both of those are correctable in a way that the skating is not.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.77 penalties taken per 60 is the 95th percentile among forwards and seventy-four penalty minutes came out of seventy-three games at twelve minutes a night.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 775 minutes

Expected goals
50.9%
62nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.1%
30th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 29 for, 28 against. Expected: 34.0 and 32.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
62nd

The numbers rank him 33 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 56 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 73 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
21st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.59 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.93 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.8 mph
98th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 769 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYI took 46.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.9% — 4.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 775 minutes at five-on-five — 39th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Zach Parise54.2%46.2%45.6%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau51.6%50.6%44.8%
Noah Dobson51.6%50.6%45.3%

54.2% together, 46.2% for him apart and 45.6% for Parise apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

219 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 26% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.