Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

2

Robin Salo

New York Islanders Defense

Twenty-one games, and a top speed among the ten slowest in the tracking file — off twenty-one games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22NYI21145-64000244.216:41
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—21145-64000244.216:41

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

21 games, 1 goal and 4 assists at 16:41 a night, minus-6, four penalty minutes, 24 shots. Forty-sixth overall in 2017, his first NHL games, at 23.

Twenty-one games is a quarter of a season and this report will describe rather than rank.

The Finesse Game

Twenty-four shots at a 53-foot median, none from the slot and ninety-three per cent from beyond forty feet. That is the purest point shot on the roster and it is drawn from twenty-four attempts.

Five points at sixteen and a half minutes a night — four of them assists.

43.9 per cent of the expected goals across 350 five-on-five minutes. His ice went 8-11 against an expectation of 10.45-13.35 — two goals short going forward and two fewer against than the model asked.

51.7 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end — ninety of them against eighty-four in his own end, which is below the two hundred this book needs before it will place a man in the league distribution.

The Physical Game

Four penalty minutes in twenty-one games at 6-1 and 191 pounds. There is nothing to read here and nothing worth converting into a rate.

The Intangibles

20.5 mph is the 8th-slowest top speed of the 649 skaters in the tracking file, and three recorded sprints over twenty miles an hour all season.

The qualifier is the whole of it. A top speed is a maximum, and a maximum is drawn from however much a man played: twenty-one games gives a quarter of the opportunities eighty gives. The figure is real, it is not comparable, and the report will not call him the slowest defenceman in hockey on that evidence.

He is 23, a second-round pick, and this was his first NHL season.

A left-shot defenceman who takes every shot from the blue line and got twenty-one games on a club that finished 29th in attempts is a file with almost nothing in it. What there is says the club was neither hiding him nor leaning on him.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 350 minutes

Expected goals
43.9%
14th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44%
10th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 8 for, 11 against. Expected: 10.4 and 13.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
6th
Numbers
14th

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 48 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 21 games

Top speed
20.5 mph
16th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.14 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.33 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.7 mph
22nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 333 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYI took 46.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.9% — 3.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 350 minutes at five-on-five — 11th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Andy Greene42.1%45.6%44.5%
Mathew Barzal44.8%43.4%48.5%
Josh Bailey48.4%41.7%43.6%

42.1% together, 45.6% for him apart and 44.5% for Greene apart. He was better away from Greene, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Greene.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

28 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 49 feet. 0% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 93% from beyond forty.