Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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New York Islanders

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference · 22 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 192 for, 209 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five
49.7% 19th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five
49.7% 19th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty
6.71 26th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty
8.45 32nd of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth
+6.6 10th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth
+26.8 2nd of 32

New York Islanders got 26.8 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — 27 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age
28.5
weighted by points
From 33 and up
5.0%
of skater points
From under 26
25.8%
of skater points
Homegrown
61.5%
drafted by this club
Continuity
80.3%
of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Nineteenth in the league in chance share at both ends, fifth in goals against — Ilya Sorokin posted the third-best save percentage in hockey and it was worth 26.8 goals.

Who this names 8 of 22 on the roster · 38% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Sebastian Aho, Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck, Noah Dobson, Hudson Fasching, Simon Holmstrom, Matt Martin, Scott Mayfield, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Pelech, Alexander Romanov, Semyon Varlamov, Oliver Wahlstrom.

What the Quant Says

42-31-9, 93 points, 15th in the league and fourth in the Metropolitan.

243 goals for, 23rd. 222 against, 5th. Nineteenth in shot-attempt share, 19th in chance share, 20th at creating chances at even strength, 19th at suppressing them, 24th on the power play and 28th on the penalty kill.

At five-on-five: 176 goals scored against 169.4 expected, and 145 conceded against 171.8. The finishing was 10th at plus-6.6 and the goaltending 2nd at plus-26.8. Thirty-three goals of edge over the chances, twenty-seven of them from one man.

Ilya Sorokin posted a .9238 — the third-best save percentage in the league — and his career figure across 136 games is a .9236.

The Islanders lost the first round to Carolina in six.

Anders Lee registered 78 tip-ins, third in the league. Mathew Barzal took 305 attacking-zone starts against 94 — the most one-sided deployment in this book. Ryan Pulock took 506 defensive-zone starts.

Pierre Engvall and Julien Gauthier arrive. Anthony Beauvillier, Zach Parise and Josh Bailey do not.

This is the most ordinary good club in the book — nineteenth or twentieth in almost every measure of play — with the second-best goaltending in the league behind it. Every question about the coming season is whether Sorokin can do it again, and the career figure says he can.

What the Scout Says

Nineteenth in every measure of play, and the second-best goaltending in hockey.

Ilya Sorokin posted a .9238, the third-best save percentage in the league, and has a career .9236 across 136 games. The Islanders were 19th in shot-attempt share and 19th in chance share. Bo Horvat scored 38 goals and Brock Nelson 36.

The forward group is heavy, old and slow, the blue line is very large and defends by position, and the goaltender is the best thing about the club by a distance. Nothing about the summer changed any of that.

The roster

Evidence 0 Full 20 Light 2 No record

No measured season behind two of them: Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2022-23.

25

Sebastian Aho

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · New York Islanders

Five-foot-ten and 180 pounds on a blue line that averages 6-2, and the best chance share of any defenceman on it.
13

Mathew Barzal

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · New York Islanders

Three hundred and five attacking-zone starts against ninety-four — the most one-sided deployment in this book.
53

Casey Cizikas

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · New York Islanders

One hundred and seventy-three attacking-zone starts against 425, at the 94th percentile in bursts of speed at thirty-two.
15

Cal Clutterbuck

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · New York Islanders

Sixteen seasons, 982 games, and eighty-seven attacking-zone starts against 223.
53

Noah Dobson

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · New York Islanders

One hundred and fifty-seven shots on goal from beyond forty feet, fourth in the league among defencemen, at twenty-three.
18

Pierre Engvall

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · New York Islanders

Six-foot-six, the 96th percentile in bursts of speed, and the best chance share on the club out of the 16th percentile of zone starts.
20

Hudson Fasching

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · New York Islanders

Eighty-seven NHL games at twenty-eight, and forty-nine of them last season.
JG

Julien Gauthier

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 485 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · New York Islanders

The 97th percentile in measured top speed and the bottom of the league in ground covered — the widest gap between the two in this book.
92

Simon Holmstrom

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · New York Islanders

Fifty games, no penalty minutes at all, and seven goals fewer than his ice deserved.
14

Bo Horvat

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · New York Islanders

Thirty-eight goals and a career minus-69, converting from twenty to forty feet better than he does from the crease.
72

Anders Lee

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · New York Islanders

Seventy-eight tip-ins, third in the league — a quarter of everything he throws at the net.
17

Matt Martin

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

LW · New York Islanders

One thousand one hundred and fifteen career penalty minutes, the fourth-most in this book, and eleven minutes a night.
24

Scott Mayfield

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · New York Islanders

Twenty-one minutes a night, eighty-three penalty minutes, and the 17th percentile of zone starts.
11

Brock Nelson

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · New York Islanders

Six goals on thirty-three shots from beyond forty feet, at four times the rate his position returns.
44

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · New York Islanders

Four hundred and fifty-four defensive-zone starts against a hundred and eighty, and a chance share above fifty out of it.
21

Kyle Palmieri

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

C · New York Islanders

Fifteen per cent from twenty to forty feet, against a league rate of eleven, on the good end of the rink.
3

Adam Pelech

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · New York Islanders

The best chance share on this blue line, taken from the 14th percentile of zone starts.
6

Ryan Pulock

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · New York Islanders

Five hundred and six defensive-zone starts, ninety-eight long shots on goal, three goals, and the fourth-fastest measured shot in the league.
28

Alexander Romanov

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

D · New York Islanders

One hundred shots on goal and two goals, at the 8th percentile of measured top speed.
30

Ilya Sorokin

Evidence behind this report: No record. No five-on-five record — Sorokin did not play a measured season. Everything on the page is an older line and a judgment.

G · New York Islanders

The third-best save percentage in the league, on a club that finished nineteenth in chances at both ends.
40

Semyon Varlamov

Evidence behind this report: No record. No five-on-five record — Varlamov did not play a measured season. Everything on the page is an older line and a judgment.

G · New York Islanders

Five hundred and eighty-three games, fifteen seasons, and twenty-three appearances behind the man who took his job.
71

Oliver Wahlstrom

Evidence behind this report: Light. Thinner than most: part of the record is missing, only 390 five-on-five minutes. The page is honest about what it has, but it is a smaller sample than the book's norm.

RW · New York Islanders

One hundred and fifty-five attacking-zone starts against thirty-six — the softest deployment in this book — and a chance share of forty-nine point eight.

How they were used

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.

Forwards

First line

L Anders Lee 50%
C Brock Nelson 1148m
L Anthony Beauvillier now VAN 39%

Second line

L Zach Parise now COL 1051m
C Jean-Gabriel Pageau 59%
C Kyle Palmieri 28%

Third line

L Matt Martin 61%
C Casey Cizikas 989m
R Cal Clutterbuck 38%

Fourth line

R Josh Bailey off the roster 41%
C Mathew Barzal 822m
R Oliver Wahlstrom 35%

Defence

First pair

D Scott Mayfield 1462m
D Alexander Romanov 35%

Second pair

D Ryan Pulock 1486m
D Adam Pelech 44%

Third pair

D Noah Dobson 1232m
D Sebastian Aho 37%

Goaltending

By games played

G Ilya Sorokin 62 GP
G Semyon Varlamov 24 GP