Brock Nelson

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

72 games, 37 goals and 22 assists for 59 points at 17:41 a night, minus-5, thirty-three penalty minutes, 171 shots. Thirtieth overall in 2010, nine seasons, 676 games, 387 points.

Thirty-seven goals is eleven more than he had scored in any previous season — the old high was the 26 of 2015-16 and 2019-20.

The Finesse Game

21.6 per cent shooting is the 6th-highest of the 393 forwards who played forty games. His career rate across 1,446 shots is 14.2 per cent.

8.06 shots per 60 is the 63rd percentile and 171 shots is within twenty of five earlier seasons. The volume is unchanged and the conversion is seven points above his own baseline.

2.55 even-strength points per 60 is the 83rd percentile and twenty-four per cent of his points came on the power play. Fifty-nine per cent of his shots came from the slot at a 22-foot median — good locations, and they have always been good.

2.31 takeaways per 60 is the 89th percentile.

47.7 per cent of the expected goals is the 32nd percentile and 46.2 per cent of the attempts the 18th, on 55.3 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 176th-highest of 652 skaters. His ice went 48-43 against an expectation of 42.4-46.53.

The Physical Game

1.46 hits per 60 is the 11th percentile at 6-4 and 205 pounds — almost nothing for that size. 2.03 blocks per 60 is the 66th.

0.94 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.71 taken. Thirty-three penalty minutes in seventy-two games.

The Intangibles

10.09 miles per 60 is the 88th percentile among forwards — the most ground covered of any Islander forward — at a 22.2 mph top speed in the 33rd. He works hard and is not fast.

He is 30 with 205 career goals and has never had a season like this one. The skating workload, the takeaway rate and the shot locations are all durable; the shooting percentage is seven points above nine years of evidence. Thirty-seven goals will not come back, and a 26-goal centre who covers this much ground is still a good one.