New York Islanders

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference · 23 reports in the 2026-27 edition.

The club

2025-26 · 82 games · 192 for, 209 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 49.0% 18th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 48.4% 21st of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 6.71 26th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 8.45 32nd of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -22.0 31st of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +18.9 4th of 32

New York Islanders scored 22.0 fewer goals than their chances were worth but got 18.9 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — the two pull against each other, and both regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.4; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 23.8%; of skater points
From under 26: 34.5%; of skater points
Homegrown: 42.2%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 80.3%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

A 19-year-old defenceman playing 24 minutes a night, the fourth-best goaltending in the league, the second-worst finishing, and the worst penalty kill of all 32.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

The book

23rd of 32

The numbers

21st of 32

The two place this roster within 2 spots of one another. Every report underneath was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars rank this club among the 32 in the edition. The report bar is the mean of its players' grades, weighted by the five-on-five minutes each of them played; the numbers bar is their expected-goal share on the same weighting. It counts 19 of the 23 reports on this roster — the rest have no five-on-five record long enough to weigh — and it reads the roster as it stands rather than the club's own last season.

Who the words reach 21 of 23 · 92% of the five-on-five minutes who is left out (2)

The bars above counted every man on the roster with enough ice time to weigh. The paragraphs name whoever they name, and no rule says who that should be — so this says who it was, over the write-up as a whole. Each section below reaches far fewer than this, which is the figure that matters: the section is where the selection happens, and the count sits under each one. The share is of the five-on-five minutes played by the 19 men on this roster who have a measured record.

Not named: Matthew Kessel, Brayden Schenn.

Who this names 8 of 23 on the roster · 46% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Ethan Bear, Tony DeAngelo, Anthony Duclair, Emil Heineman, Simon Holmstrom, Bo Horvat, Matthew Kessel, Matias Maccelli, Kyle MacLean, Ondrej Palat, Kyle Palmieri, Calum Ritchie, Brayden Schenn, Vitek Vanecek, Semyon Varlamov.

What the Quant Says

A 19-year-old defenceman and the fourth-best goaltending in the league, holding up a club that could not finish. New York scored 233 after finishing 22.0 goals below expectation, 31st, while ranking 28th at preventing chances.

The goaltending was worth 18.9 goals above what the shots warranted, 4th. The 2 structural faults are the units: 26th on the power play despite the third-most man-advantage time in hockey, and the worst penalty kill of all 32. The mitigation is discipline — 26th in shorthanded workload — and the reason for optimism is a teenager who played 24:41 a night.

What the Scout Says

A goaltender, a 19-year-old defenceman, and a great deal of honest labour in between. Ilya Sorokin is square, quiet and almost never out of position, and the economy of movement is what separates him from goaltenders with more visible athleticism. Matthew Schaefer already has among the better sets of feet on any blue line in the league — he escapes a forecheck by accelerating into it and retrieves pucks he has no business reaching — and he is doing it in the hardest minutes anyone gives a teenager.

Around those 2 the club is built the way it has been for a decade: Casey Cizikas forechecking with genuine violence for his size, Jean-Gabriel Pageau never out of position and therefore never obliged to grab, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock defending by being early rather than by punishing anyone, Scott Mayfield making the crease unpleasant. Mathew Barzal is the skill, and the skill is real. What the roster lacks is a second forward who can create, and men who can win a puck on a wall in the offensive end.

Who this names 11 of 13 forwards · 85% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Kyle MacLean, Brayden Schenn.

What the Quant Says

233 goals, and it should have been many more. New York finished 22.0 goals below expectation at 5-on-5 — 31st in the league, ahead of only New Jersey.

Mathew Barzal had 53 assists and was on the ice for 36 5-on-5 goals against an expectation of 58.9. Bo Horvat scored 31 in 68 games. Emil Heineman managed 22 goals and 9 assists, one of the strangest splits in this book. Ondrej Palat, in his fifteenth season, was on for 31 goals for against 54. The shot profiles are good — Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Casey Cizikas each take more than half their attempts from inside 20 feet, Kyle Palmieri from a median of 15 — and the pucks did not go in. Anthony Duclair posted the 3rd percentile in chance share.

What the Scout Says

One carrier and a group of finishers who need somebody to do the carrying. Mathew Barzal has the second-best skating in this edition and it is the whole engine — he takes the puck through the neutral zone at a speed that forces defencemen to turn, and the passing comes out of that. He has been told to shoot more for 8 seasons and has never really done it. Bo Horvat is the finisher who works from the middle distance, which holds up because the release is heavy and quick off the wall, and he protects pucks below the goal line and cannot be moved from the net front on a power play.

Underneath, several men do one thing well. Emil Heineman shoots, and when he does not shoot the play ends; the release is genuinely quick and nothing else about the offensive game is built. Kyle Palmieri is still a finisher when he is upright. Simon Holmstrom gets to good ice and does not shoot enough from it. Anthony Duclair's whole game is straight-line speed into space, with no forechecking and no wall play at all. Matias Maccelli passes beautifully, does not go near a wall battle, and cannot hold a puck against pressure, so he needs linemates who can. The genuinely encouraging page is Calum Ritchie, a 20-year-old who already understands where to shoot from and is not yet strong enough to hold that ice.

Who this names 6 of 7 defencemen · 95% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Matthew Kessel.

What the Quant Says

Matthew Schaefer is 19 years old. He played all 82 games, 24:41 a night, 1,535 5-on-5 minutes, and scored 23 goals with 59 points. There is nothing else remotely like it in this edition, and his chance share came out at the 59th percentile in the hardest minutes on the roster — which for a teenaged defenceman is a remarkable place to start.

The veterans around him are worn. Adam Pelech played 1,453 minutes and had the goals go 48-51 against him with the chances level; Ryan Pulock took the second-most minutes at the 22nd percentile; Scott Mayfield took 83 penalty minutes and shoots from a median of 55 feet. Tony DeAngelo put up 30 assists from the blue line. The club was 28th in even-strength expected goals against, and the 19-year-old is already the best defenceman on it.

What the Scout Says

The most interesting blue line in the league because of 1 player on it. Matthew Schaefer's skating is why he went 1st overall and it is already elite; the passing is the more durable half, and he is being asked for the hardest minutes on the roster at 19. He gets moved off pucks in front of his own net by grown wingers and cannot yet clear a crease, and he competes anyway. 2 summers of weight is the standard prescription and he has not had one. There is no other page in this edition like his.

The rest is a settled, unspectacular group. Adam Pelech moves it to the first available man and defends, and his skating is good enough that he is rarely obliged to foul, which for a man playing these minutes is the distinguishing feature. Ryan Pulock is not a punisher — he is early, which does the same job with less drama. Scott Mayfield supplies 83 penalty minutes, a genuine willingness to fight and a cleared crease, and skates poorly enough that he cannot recover when beaten wide. Tony DeAngelo is the puck-mover and the liability in the same body: the passing is a real top-20 asset at the position, and he cannot clear his own net front and takes the wrong sort of penalty. Ethan Bear defends with body position rather than reach and has not had a healthy run in some time.

The roster

Evidence 18 Full 3 Light 2 No record

No measured season behind two of them: Ethan Bear and Semyon Varlamov. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2025-26.

Mathew Barzal

#13

C · New York Islanders

53 assists, and a club that could not finish them.

Ethan Bear

#74

D · New York Islanders

275 games, and none in the last 2 seasons.

Casey Cizikas

#53

C · New York Islanders

978 games in one uniform, and half his shots from the paint.

Tony DeAngelo

#77

D · New York Islanders

30 assists from the blue line, and a penalty kill that finished last.

Anthony Duclair

#11

LW · New York Islanders

The 3rd percentile in expected goals, and 165 career goals.

Emil Heineman

#51

LW · New York Islanders

22 goals and 9 assists, which is one of the strangest splits in this book.

Simon Holmstrom

#92

RW · New York Islanders

19 goals from a first-round pick who took 4 years to arrive.

Bo Horvat

#14

C · New York Islanders

31 goals, and 300 career ones.

Matthew Kessel

#51

D · New York Islanders

99 games across 4 seasons, and 3 goals.

Matias Maccelli

#63

LW · New York Islanders

Minus 23, and 118 career assists.

Kyle MacLean

C · New York Islanders

Undrafted, 172 games, and 40 penalty minutes from the fourth line.

Scott Mayfield

#24

D · New York Islanders

83 penalty minutes, 2 goals, and a median shot from 55 feet.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

#44

C · New York Islanders

4 penalty minutes in 74 games, and half his shots from inside 20 feet.

Ondrej Palat

#81

LW · New York Islanders

905 games, 2 Stanley Cups, and 31 goals for against 54.

Kyle Palmieri

#21

C · New York Islanders

925 games, and a median shot from 15 feet.

Adam Pelech

D · New York Islanders

642 games, 30 goals, and the 82nd percentile in possession.

Ryan Pulock

D · New York Islanders

636 games, and the 22nd percentile in the second-most minutes.

Calum Ritchie

C · New York Islanders

13 goals at 20, and 9 points in his last 10.

Matthew Schaefer

D · New York Islanders

19 years old, 24 minutes a night, 23 goals, and 1,500 5-on-5 minutes.

Brayden Schenn

#10

C · New York Islanders

1,102 games, and a minus-28.

Ilya Sorokin

#30

G · New York Islanders

20 goals better than the chances he faced, on the league's worst penalty kill.

Vitek Vanecek

#41

G · New York Islanders

A .8834, in front of the same defence that made Sorokin look like an All-Star.

Semyon Varlamov

#40

G · New York Islanders

621 games at a career .9156, and none last season.

How they were used

2025-26 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.