Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

72

Anthony Beauvillier

New York Islanders Right Wing

The 18th-percentile shooting rate and the 16th-percentile attempt share, on twelve penalty minutes in seventy-five games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17NYI6691524+1100021018.913:01
2017-18NYI71211536+21630213215.914:32
2018-19NYI81181028+1810415611.514:39
2019-20NYI68182139-111531313213.617:16
2020-21NYI47151328+151230510913.816:24
2021-22NYI75122234-10125011547.816:50
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—4089396189-2731511778411.915:24

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

75 games, 12 goals and 22 assists for 34 points at 16:50 a night, minus-10, twelve penalty minutes, 154 shots. Twenty-eighth overall in 2015, six seasons, 408 games, 189 points.

Twelve goals is his lowest full-season total since his rookie year, against a career high of 21.

The Finesse Game

7.32 shots per 60 is the 50th percentile at 7.8 per cent, the 18th. The volume held and the conversion did not: his career rate across 784 shots is 11.9 per cent.

1.25 even-strength points per 60 is the 19th percentile and thirty-two per cent of his points came on the power play at the 83rd. Take the power play away and there is very little here.

Fifty-three per cent of his shots came from the slot at a 24-foot median — ordinary locations, and 85.4 mph is the 19th percentile for shot speed.

2.57 giveaways per 60 is the 93rd percentile against 1.71 takeaways.

46.1 per cent of the expected goals is the 18th percentile and 45.8 per cent of the attempts the 16th, on 53.4 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 222nd-highest of 652 skaters — ordinary-to-soft usage and a poor result out of it.

His ice went 41-44 against an expectation of 43.86-51.21 — seven fewer against than the model asked, which is the crease.

The Physical Game

1.85 hits per 60 is the 18th percentile and 0.95 blocks the 15th at 5-11 and 181 pounds. There is nothing here.

0.29 penalties taken per 60 is the 9th percentile and twelve penalty minutes came out of seventy-five games. Against 0.48 drawn, the net is positive and both halves are small.

The Intangibles

22.0 mph is the 24th percentile, 6.1 bursts per 60 the 61st, 9.81 miles per 60 the 64th. He sprints and works at an ordinary rate and is not fast.

He is 25 with 408 NHL games and has scored between 12 and 21 goals in each of five full seasons. The shooting percentage will come back and the chance share is the real problem: a first-round winger at sixteen minutes a night should not be at the 16th percentile in attempts. Nothing in the file suggests a level above what he has already shown.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.16 penalty minutes a game over 75, 10th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:48 a game at five-on-five, 90th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,110 minutes

Expected goals
46.1%
23rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.8%
20th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 44 against. Expected: 43.9 and 51.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
8th
Numbers
23rd

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 49 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 75 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
44th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.72 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.75 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.4 mph
42nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1096 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYI took 46.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.1% — 0.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,110 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brock Nelson48.0%41.5%46.7%
Noah Dobson46.4%46.0%46.6%
Anders Lee42.9%48.1%48.2%

48.0% together, 41.5% for him apart and 46.7% for Nelson apart. He was worse away from Nelson, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Nelson did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

207 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.