Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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53

Casey Cizikas

New York Islanders Center

The 10th-lowest attempt share of 393 forwards, out of the 25th-most buried chair of 652 skaters.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12NYI15044+16000120.010:36
2012-13NYI4569150140014513.310:47
2013-14NYI8061016-1230101797.613:22
2014-15NYI709918-2240229010.012:31
2015-16NYI8082129+431014849.512:41
2016-17NYI5981725+930001829.813:54
2017-18NYI6471017-1223010749.513:13
2018-19NYI73201333+223602311118.014:01
2019-20NYI4810414+12410316714.914:18
2020-21NYI567714-227003729.713:50
2021-22NYI7410616-3480139111.013:45
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—66491110201+173101101980711.313:13

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

74 games, 10 goals and 6 assists at 13:45 a night, minus-3, forty-eight penalty minutes, 91 shots. Ninety-second overall in 2009, eleven seasons, 664 games, 201 points, all of them here.

The Finesse Game

1.03 even-strength points per 60 is the 9th percentile and none of his points came on the power play — he has one power-play point in eleven seasons.

5.37 shots per 60 is the 16th percentile at 11.0 per cent, fifty-seven per cent from the slot at a 20-foot median.

42.9 per cent of the expected goals is the 6th percentile and 42.4 per cent of the attempts the 10th-lowest of the 393 forwards who played forty games. Those are among the worst shares in the league and the chair explains most of them: 31.1 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end, the 25th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

His ice went 19-29 against an expectation of 24.54-32.68 — five goals short going forward and four fewer against than the model asked.

The pair file is the argument. With Matt Martin across 971 attempts he took 46.8 per cent; apart from him, 33.3. With Cal Clutterbuck across 744, 47.6; apart from him, 37.2. This line is far more than the sum of its men and none of the three is anything without the other two.

The Physical Game

8.14 hits per 60 is the 82nd percentile and 8.4 bursts over 20 mph per 60 the 79th, from one of the twenty-five most buried assignments in the league.

2.54 blocks per 60 is the 84th percentile at 5-11 and 191. 1.18 penalties drawn per 60 against 1.42 taken, and forty-eight penalty minutes in seventy-four games.

The Intangibles

1:51 short-handed a night is the 54th-most of 393 forwards, and ten of his 91 career goals have come a man short.

9.98 miles per 60 is the 78th percentile at a 21.9 mph top speed in the 19th. He works hard and is slow, which is the commonest shape on this roster.

He is 31 with 664 games for one club. The deployment is genuinely extreme, the shares are genuinely bad, and the pair splits say the line is the unit rather than the man. Sixteen points is what it produces and it is not meant to produce more.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    31% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 5th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “1:51 short-handed a night is the 54th-most of 393 forwards, and ten of his 91 career goals have come a man short.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “8.14 hits per 60 is the 82nd percentile and 8.4 bursts over 20 mph per 60 the 79th, from one of the twenty-five most buried assignments in the league.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 878 minutes

Expected goals
42.9%
9th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
42.4%
5th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 29 against. Expected: 24.5 and 32.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
9th

The report ranks him 39 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 74 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
38th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.92 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.29 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.4 mph
88th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 870 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYI took 46.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 42.9% — 4.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 878 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Matt Martin46.8%33.3%47.5%
Cal Clutterbuck47.6%37.2%42.9%
Adam Pelech49.4%39.3%51.7%

46.8% together, 33.3% for him apart and 47.5% for Martin apart. He was worse away from Martin, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Martin did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

124 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.