Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

17

Evan Rodrigues

Florida Panthers Center

Undrafted, 5-11, and his ice conceded twelve fewer goals than the chances said it should.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16BUF2112+20000812.511:45
2016-17BUF30426-74100517.812:56
2017-18BUF4871825-1014100917.713:56
2018-19BUF7492029-7252011685.415:49
2019-20BUF/PIT456410-814101758.011:17
2020-21PIT357714-362016510.814:06
2021-22PIT82192443+3147022437.815:50
2022-23COL69162339+7306021848.717:51
2023-24FLA80122739+26343011866.515:10
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—46581126207+3141230810717.615:03

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 12 goals and 27 assists for 39 points, 3 on the power play, 34 penalty minutes, 15:10 a night and plus-26. He took 56.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,040 minutes, the 92nd percentile, and his ice went 46-23 against an expectation of 45.07-35.25.

Twelve goals fewer conceded than the chances called for, which is the largest such gap among the club’s forwards and belongs to Sergei Bobrovsky rather than to him. The plus-26 should be read with that in mind.

The Finesse Game

186 shots at a median of 31 feet with 30 per cent from inside 20, converted at 6.5 per cent against a career 7.6.

126 career assists in 465 games. He is a quick, honest skater who moves the puck early and gets to the right place without the puck, which is why he has spent nine seasons being useful on a series of rosters without ever being important on one.

The Physical Game

He is 5-11 and 182 and avoids contact.

34 penalty minutes in 80 games is an ordinary rate. He does not punish anybody and he is moved off the puck easily, and the compensation is that he is rarely standing still long enough to be hit.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, out of Toronto, four years at Boston University, and 465 games since. 207 points and a career plus-3 across nine seasons.

He is 31 and this was comfortably the best season of his career on comfortably the best club he has played for. Both of those facts are worth remembering when reading the plus-26.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, out of Toronto, four years at Boston University, and 465 games since.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He does not punish anybody and he is moved off the puck easily, and the compensation is that he is rarely standing still long enough to be hit.”

  • hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He does not punish anybody and he is moved off the puck easily, and the compensation is that he is rarely standing still long enough to be hit.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He is a quick, honest skater who moves the puck early and gets to the right place without the puck, which is why he has spent nine seasons being useful on a series of rosters without ever being important on one.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,040 minutes

Expected goals
56.1%
92nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
58.1%
97th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 23 against. Expected: 45.1 and 35.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
31st
Numbers
92nd

The numbers rank him 61 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
45th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.45 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.43 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.4 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1040 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
FLA took 53.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.1% — 2.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,040 minutes at five-on-five — 64th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Aleksander Barkov59.4%53.1%62.2%
Sam Reinhart59.1%53.6%58.4%
Gustav Forsling56.8%55.6%55.9%

59.4% together, 53.1% for him apart and 62.2% for Barkov apart. He was worse away from Barkov, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Barkov did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

252 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 30% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.