Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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62

Brandon Montour

Seattle Kraken Defense

Seventy-three points two seasons ago, 33 last season, and 381 penalty minutes in 520 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17ANA27246+1114000504.017:23
2017-18ANA8092332+16425151605.620:28
2018-19ANA/BUF8282735-20561021814.422:27
2019-20BUF5451318+1328000865.819:30
2020-21BUF/FLA5071118-540020947.420:29
2021-22FLA81112637+15481011537.217:54
2022-23FLA80165773+91073052426.624:08
2023-24FLA6682533+1461031684.823:27
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—52066186252+403811131611345.821:04

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

66 games with Florida, 8 goals and 25 assists for 33 points, 1 on the power play, 46 penalty minutes, 23:27 a night and plus-1, with 3 game-winners. He took 53.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,190 minutes, the 79th percentile, and his ice went 45-41 against an expectation of 52.25-45.46.

Seven goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and four goals of goaltending above them. The 53.5 per cent is the best chance share any Seattle defenceman will carry into this season, and it was earned somewhere else.

The Finesse Game

237 attempts at a median of 50 feet with 63 per cent of them from beyond forty and 11 per cent from inside twenty, 159 of those on goal, converted at 4.8 per cent against a career 5.82 across 1,134 shots.

186 career assists against 66 goals in 520 games, and a 73-point season two years ago. He joins the rush rather than supporting it, and the eleven career power-play goals understate how much of a unit he can run.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 199 and took 46 penalty minutes.

381 career penalty minutes in 520 games is a high rate for a defenceman his size. He finishes checks he does not need to and gets caught up the ice, and a fair share of those minutes are the recovery penalty rather than the first one.

The Intangibles

Fifty-fifth overall in 2014 by Anaheim, eight seasons, four organisations, and 252 points in 520 games.

A career plus-40 and three shorthanded goals. He is 30, Seattle is his fourth organisation, and the club has bought the seasons after the best one of his career.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He joins the rush rather than supporting it, and the eleven career power-play goals understate how much of a unit he can run.”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “He finishes checks he does not need to and gets caught up the ice, and a fair share of those minutes are the recovery penalty rather than the first one.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,190 minutes

Expected goals
53.5%
80th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.1%
90th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 45 for, 41 against. Expected: 52.3 and 45.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
80th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 78 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 66 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
84th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
1.09 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.44 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
101.0 mph
96th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with FLA · 1190 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
FLA took 53.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.5% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,190 minutes at five-on-five — 82nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Niko Mikkola51.2%58.3%52.5%
Sam Bennett55.8%51.9%55.9%
Matthew Tkachuk54.8%52.6%55.1%

51.2% together, 58.3% for him apart and 52.5% for Mikkola apart. He was better away from Mikkola, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Mikkola.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

237 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 42 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 63% from beyond forty.