Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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29

Leon Draisaitl

Edmonton Oilers Center

Twenty-one power-play goals and 146 in his career, on the second-best unit in the league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15EDM37279-174101494.112:42
2015-16EDM72193251-22050213314.318:04
2016-17EDM82294877+720100517216.918:53
2017-18EDM78254570-73063119412.919:19
2018-19EDM825055105+252163523121.622:35
2019-20EDM714367110-7181601021819.722:37
2020-21EDM56315384+2922151816818.422:11
2021-22EDM805555110+17402411127819.822:21
2022-23EDM805276128+7243211124721.121:44
2023-24EDM814165106+2676210721718.920:42
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—719347503850+55306146961190718.220:29

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 41 goals and 65 assists for 106 points, 21 on the power play, 76 penalty minutes, 20:42 a night and plus-26. He took 58.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,279 minutes, the 97th percentile, and his ice went 76-49 against an expectation of 76.92-54.10.

Level with his chances at one end and five goals better than them at the other. The 21 power-play goals are the reason a club that gets the third-least power-play time in the league still finished second at creating on it.

The Finesse Game

217 shots at a median of 24 feet with 37 per cent from inside 20, converted at 18.9 per cent. He shoots from the left circle without needing the puck to settle first, which is why the release beats goaltenders who are set.

503 career assists in 719 games. He holds the puck below the goal line at 209 pounds and waits, and the pass out of that position is the second-most dangerous thing this club does.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 209 and protects the puck with his body better than anybody on the roster.

76 penalty minutes in 81 games is a real rate and a lot of it is frustration rather than intent. He is hard to move off a puck below the goal line and he does not go looking for a hit anywhere else.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2014 out of Cologne, a Hart at 24, and 850 points in 719 games. He has spent his whole career being the second-best player on his own team and it has cost him a reputation he has earned.

At 28 there is nothing here that looks like decline. The power play is his and it is the most reliable thing this organisation owns.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    15:47 a game at five-on-five, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He holds the puck below the goal line at 209 pounds and waits, and the pass out of that position is the second-most dangerous thing this club does.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He is 6-2 and 209 and protects the puck with his body better than anybody on the roster.”

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “76 penalty minutes in 81 games is a real rate and a lot of it is frustration rather than intent.”

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He is hard to move off a puck below the goal line and he does not go looking for a hit anywhere else.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,279 minutes

Expected goals
58.7%
97th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.6%
91st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 76 for, 49 against. Expected: 76.9 and 54.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
97th
Numbers
97th

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 81 games

Top speed
23.3 mph
94th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.73 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.08 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.5 mph
54th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1279 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
EDM took 56.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.7% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,279 minutes at five-on-five — 89th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Evan Bouchard63.8%54.4%61.6%
Darnell Nurse55.1%61.1%52.9%
Cody Ceci52.2%62.7%51.9%

63.8% together, 54.4% for him apart and 61.6% for Bouchard apart. He was worse away from Bouchard, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Bouchard did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

326 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 42 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.