Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

70

Jesper Boqvist

Florida Panthers Center

A second-round pick on his third organisation at 25, and 69 points in 236 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20NJD35404-118100419.810:57
2020-21NJD28437-520013411.811:09
2021-22NJD56101323-9100017413.513:08
2022-23NJD70101121+820026714.911:36
2023-24BOS476814+1280015111.811:09
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—236343569-53010526712.711:43

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

47 games in Boston, 6 goals and 8 assists for 14 points, 8 penalty minutes, 11:09 a night and plus-12. He took 51.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 509 minutes, the 63rd percentile, and his ice went 19-9 against an expectation of 17.76-16.77, all of it with the Bruins.

Eight goals fewer conceded than the chances called for in five hundred minutes, which is noise and a good goaltender. He arrives in Florida as a fourth-line option on a one-year contract.

The Finesse Game

51 shots at a median of 22 feet with 47 per cent from inside 20, converted at 11.8 per cent.

35 career assists in 236 games. He skates well and gets to the interior and there has never been much at the end of it. Sixty-nine points in 236 games across five seasons is a fourth-line rate.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 191 and neither initiates nor absorbs contact.

8 penalty minutes in 47 games is a very low rate and 30 in 236 career games is lower still. There is nothing in his game that produces a penalty and nothing that produces a hit.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2017 out of Falun, five seasons in New Jersey and Boston, and a career minus-5.

He is 25 and has not established himself anywhere. On a club this deep he is the thirteenth forward, which is a job and not a career.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    35% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 6th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is 6-1 and 191 and neither initiates nor absorbs contact.”

  • hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He is 6-1 and 191 and neither initiates nor absorbs contact.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “There is nothing in his game that produces a penalty and nothing that produces a hit.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 509 minutes

Expected goals
51.4%
63rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.2%
30th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 9 against. Expected: 17.8 and 16.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
13th
Numbers
63rd

The numbers rank him 50 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 47 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
60th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.02 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.93 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
80.2 mph
20th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with BOS · 509 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
BOS took 49.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.4% — 1.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
509 minutes at five-on-five — 18th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brandon Carlo43.1%55.9%46.5%
Charlie McAvoy59.0%48.3%50.1%
Matt Grzelcyk57.7%48.8%45.3%

43.1% together, 55.9% for him apart and 46.5% for Carlo apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

59 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.