Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

97

Connor McDavid

Edmonton Oilers Center

A hundred assists in 76 games, and the highest five-on-five chance share of any skater in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16EDM45163248-11830510515.218:53
2016-17EDM823070100+272631625111.921:08
2017-18EDM824167108+202651727415.021:33
2018-19EDM784175116+32091924017.122:50
2019-20EDM64346397-628110621216.021:52
2020-21EDM563372105+2120901120016.522:09
2021-22EDM804479123+2845100931414.022:04
2022-23EDM826489153+22362141135218.222:23
2023-24EDM7632100132+353071526312.221:22
2024-25 so far
Career645335647982+14924978869221115.221:42

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

76 games, 32 goals and 100 assists for 132 points, 7 on the power play, 30 penalty minutes, 21:22 a night and plus-35. He took 63.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,257 minutes, the 100th percentile, and his ice went 90-57 against an expectation of 85.40-49.95.

That chance share is the highest of any skater in this edition, and the 132 points were third in the league behind Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon, in six fewer games than either.

The Finesse Game

He is the fastest player in the league with the puck on his stick, which is a different and rarer thing than being the fastest player in the league.

263 shots at a median of 20 feet with 51 per cent from inside 20 is a shooting profile that did not exist for him five years ago; he has added the willingness to take the puck to the net himself. 647 career assists in 645 games is the number that will define him, and the seam pass through two sticks at full speed is the single most dangerous play in hockey.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 194 and does not initiate contact, and 30 penalty minutes in 76 games is the rate of a man who plays away from trouble.

He is knocked off pucks far less often than his size suggests, because he is almost never caught standing still. What he will not do is win a wall battle by force, and against clubs that can put a 6-4 defenceman on him for a full shift it shows.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2015, captain at 19, and 982 points in 645 games. He has carried this organisation for nine seasons and the individual awards understate it.

The chance share is the thing to hold on to. 63.1 per cent means that when he was on the ice, at even strength, the other club barely had the puck. That is not a scoring statistic and it is the best argument for him that exists.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,257 minutes

Expected goals
63.1%
100th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
59.5%
98th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 90 for, 57 against. Expected: 85.4 and 50.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
100th
Numbers
100th

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 316 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 87 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1257 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
EDM took 56.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 63.1% — 6.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,257 minutes at five-on-five — 87th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Zach Hyman65.2%55.9%55.5%
Evan Bouchard65.0%59.1%58.4%
Mattias Ekholm65.3%59.7%57.5%

65.2% together, 55.9% for him apart and 55.5% for Hyman apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

350 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 34 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 51% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.