Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

25

Darnell Nurse

Edmonton Oilers Defense

Thirteen goals of scoring that did not arrive on his ice, and 549 career penalty minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15EDM2000-2000020.017:00
2015-16EDM693710-13600001202.520:14
2016-17EDM445611033000855.917:01
2017-18EDM8262026+15670021943.122:15
2018-19EDM82103141-5871011965.123:49
2019-20EDM7152833-2480011702.923:27
2020-21EDM56162036+275710215410.425:38
2021-22EDM7192635+18540202034.425:03
2022-23EDM82123143+26640242035.923:30
2023-24EDM81102232+3791121815.521:54
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—64076191267+67549351215085.022:43

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 10 goals and 22 assists for 32 points, 1 on the power play, 1 shorthanded, 79 penalty minutes, 21:54 a night and plus-3. He took 53.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,464 minutes, the 81st percentile, and his ice went 60-60 against an expectation of 73.49-63.20.

Thirteen goals of scoring that did not arrive at one end and three fewer conceded than the chances called for at the other. On a club where the first pair took a 62 per cent share, an 81st percentile is the second pair getting the rest of it.

The Finesse Game

181 shots at a median of 50 feet with 68 per cent from beyond 40, converted at 5.5 per cent. The shot gets through and does very little when it arrives.

191 career assists in 640 games. He carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and at 6-4 with a long stride he is hard to line up while he is doing it. The decision at the far blue line is the part that has never caught up.

The Physical Game

He finishes his checks, is unpleasant along the wall at 215 pounds, and will fight anybody who asks.

79 penalty minutes in 81 games is the most on the club. He retaliates, and a good share of those minutes are the second penalty rather than the first.

The Intangibles

Seventh overall in 2013 out of Hamilton, ten seasons, 640 games, and 549 career penalty minutes. He has been asked to be a number one defenceman on a club that has had two better ones arrive since.

The contract is the thing everybody discusses and the skating is the thing that will keep him useful. At 29 the skating is still the best thing about him by a distance and the rest of it has stopped improving.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and at 6-4 with a long stride he is hard to line up while he is doing it.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He finishes his checks, is unpleasant along the wall at 215 pounds, and will fight anybody who asks.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He finishes his checks, is unpleasant along the wall at 215 pounds, and will fight anybody who asks.”

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He retaliates, and a good share of those minutes are the second penalty rather than the first.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He finishes his checks, is unpleasant along the wall at 215 pounds, and will fight anybody who asks.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,464 minutes

Expected goals
53.8%
81st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53%
79th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 60 against. Expected: 73.5 and 63.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
47th
Numbers
81st

The numbers rank him 34 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 81 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
86th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
1.16 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.97 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.9 mph
71st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1464 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
EDM took 56.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.8% — 3.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,464 minutes at five-on-five — 96th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cody Ceci52.2%57.7%51.5%
Evander Kane48.0%57.2%54.9%
Leon Draisaitl55.1%52.9%61.1%

52.2% together, 57.7% for him apart and 51.5% for Ceci apart. He was better away from Ceci, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Ceci.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

243 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 41 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.