Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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13

Mattias Janmark

Edmonton Oilers Center

Ten career shorthanded goals in 557 games, on the fifth-best penalty kill in the league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16DAL73151429+121601310813.914:10
2017-18DAL81191534-132442413614.016:56
2018-19DAL8161925-4240001055.715:13
2019-20DAL6261521-512110867.014:37
2020-21CHI/VGK56111324-12104109511.617:05
2021-22VGK6791625+3210218910.114:21
2022-23EDM66101525+9300317912.714:40
2023-24EDM714812046000676.011:54
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—55780115195-10183910976510.514:51

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

71 games, 4 goals and 8 assists for 12 points, 46 penalty minutes, 11:54 a night and even. He took 52.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 722 minutes, the 72nd percentile, and his ice went 23-23 against an expectation of 28.76-25.93.

Six goals of scoring that did not arrive on a fourth line that was winning its minutes. Twelve points in 71 games is the floor of what a club can carry, and the 72nd percentile is why it carried him.

The Finesse Game

67 shots at a median of 16 feet with 62 per cent from inside 20, converted at 6.0 per cent. He gets to the right ice and does nothing with it.

115 career assists in 557 games. He is a straight-line skater who is quicker than he looks and who has never had hands to match the legs.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 205 and finishes his checks without hurting anybody.

46 penalty minutes in 71 games is a higher rate than the rest of his game suggests, and most of it is stick fouls when he has been beaten to a spot.

The Intangibles

A third-round pick in 2013 out of Danderyd, eight seasons, and 195 points in 557 games. He kills penalties and has 10 career shorthanded goals in 557 games, which is the most on this roster among forwards other than Adam Henrique.

That is the job and he is good at it. The even-strength scoring has been gone for three years and there is no reason to expect it back at 31.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    69.0% of his attempts in the slot, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties and has 10 career shorthanded goals in 557 games, which is the most on this roster among forwards other than Adam Henrique.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “46 penalty minutes in 71 games is a higher rate than the rest of his game suggests, and most of it is stick fouls when he has been beaten to a spot.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is 6-2 and 205 and finishes his checks without hurting anybody.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 722 minutes

Expected goals
52.6%
72nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.9%
62nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 23 against. Expected: 28.8 and 25.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
72nd

The numbers rank him 55 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 71 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
82nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.38 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.79 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
76.6 mph
12th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 722 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
EDM took 56.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.6% — 4.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 722 minutes at five-on-five — 33rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Darnell Nurse50.9%53.7%54.3%
Cody Ceci48.7%55.4%52.7%
Brett Kulak48.7%54.9%56.2%

50.9% together, 53.7% for him apart and 54.3% for Nurse apart. Nurse was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

84 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 7 feet. 63% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.