Dallas Stars

Central Division, Western Conference · 21 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 242 for, 193 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 51.7% 10th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 52.0% 12th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 8.60 3rd of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.01 12th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +4.8 12th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +11.9 7th of 32

Dallas Stars got 11.9 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — 12 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.8; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 28.7%; of skater points
From under 26: 37.0%; of skater points
Homegrown: 56.1%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 81.4%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Fifth on the power play, fifth on the penalty kill, third-fewest goals against and seventh-most for — the most balanced club in this edition, and a thirty-nine-year-old with a thousand career points on the first line.

Who this names 7 of 21 on the roster · 33% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov, Ty Dellandrea, Radek Faksa, Jani Hakanpää, Joel Hanley, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Esa Lindell, Nils Lundkvist, Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin, Ryan Suter, Scott Wedgewood.

What the Quant Says

47-21-14, 108 points, 8th in the league and second in the Central.

285 goals for, 7th. 218 against, 3rd. Fifth in the league on the power play, 4th on the penalty kill, 13th in shot-attempt share and 9th at suppressing chances at even strength.

At five-on-five: 175 goals scored against 170.2 expected, and 145 conceded against 156.9. The finishing was 12th at plus-4.8 and the goaltending 7th at plus-11.9. No department on this page is worse than fourteenth and none is better than third. That is what a balanced club looks like in numbers.

Dallas beat Minnesota in six and Seattle in seven, and lost the conference final to Vegas in six.

Jason Robertson had 109 points at 24. Miro Heiskanen had 62 assists at 25:29 a night. Joe Pavelski scored 28 goals at 38 with 1,001 career points and 165 career power-play goals. Jake Oettinger has improved his save percentage in each of three seasons.

Matt Duchene, Craig Smith and Sam Steel arrive. Luke Glendening, Denis Gurianov, Joel Kiviranta and Colin Miller do not.

The roster is old at the top and young underneath it — a 39-year-old and a 34-year-old on the first line, a 19-year-old who played 82 games, and a 24-year-old goaltender. Nothing about the summer changed the shape of it, which on a conference finalist is the correct decision.

What the Scout Says

A thousand career points on the first line at thirty-nine, and a hundred-and-nine-point winger at twenty-four.

Joe Pavelski was 205th overall in 2003 and has 1,001 career points and 165 power-play goals. Jason Robertson had 46 goals and 109 points. Miro Heiskanen played 25:29 a night with 62 assists. Jake Oettinger has raised his save percentage in each of three seasons.

There is no hole on this roster and no obvious surplus either. Everything about Dallas is that it does eight things well and nothing exceptionally.

Who this names 8 of 13 forwards · 65% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Evgenii Dadonov, Ty Dellandrea, Radek Faksa, Craig Smith, Sam Steel.

What the Quant Says

285 goals, 7th in the league.

Dallas created 2.695 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 14th, and took 51.7 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 10th, and 52.0 per cent of the expected goals, 12th.

At five-on-five it scored 175 goals against an expectation of 170.2 — a surplus of 4.8, 12th in the league.

Jason Robertson had 46 goals and 109 points in all 82 games at 24, third in scoring in this book. Jamie Benn had 33 and 78 at 34, Joe Pavelski 28 and 77 at 38, Roope Hintz 37 and 75 in 73 games, Miro Heiskanen 62 assists and 73 points from the blue line and Tyler Seguin 21 and 50.

Wyatt Johnston scored 24 goals in all 82 games at 19. Roope Hintz scored 39 goals from inside 40 feet on 167 shots — 23.35 per cent, the best close-range conversion rate in this chapter.

Matt Duchene arrives from Nashville with 22 goals and 56 points, bought out at 32 one year after a 43-goal season.

What the Scout Says

The seventh-round pick with a thousand points, and the second-round pick with a hundred and nine.

Jason Robertson is 6-3 and 204 and was 39th overall in 2017 — 104 goals in his first four seasons and 46 and 41 in consecutive years. The 88 in his shot grade and the 86 in hockey sense are among the highest forward figures in this chapter, and the possession numbers say none of it is borrowed.

Joe Pavelski is 6-1 and 196 and was 205th overall in 2003. He takes 62 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, with 41 tip-ins and 12 deflections, at a top speed in the 12th percentile. The 94 in hockey sense is the highest grade on any card in this chapter. Everything about the tracking says it should have stopped; it has not.

Roope Hintz is 6-3 and 217 with 4.5 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 99th percentile, and scored 39 goals from inside 40 feet at 23.35 per cent.

Jamie Benn is 6-3 and 210 with 768 career penalty minutes and 78 points off the 5th-percentile top speed — one of the slowest forwards in the league and a point-a-game player. Wyatt Johnston is 20, scored 24 goals in all 82 games, and registered 0.3 bursts a night: he is not fast, the shot is soft, and he scored 24 by being in the right place.

Matt Duchene arrives at 32, third overall in 2009, with 744 career points. Mason Marchment is 6-5 and undrafted with 80 penalty minutes.

Who this names 6 of 6 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

Dallas allowed 2.494 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 9th in the league, and conceded 218 goals, 3rd — behind only Boston and Carolina.

At five-on-five it conceded 145 goals against an expectation of 156.9, and the club's goaltending came in 11.9 goals better than the chances it faced, 7th in the league.

Miro Heiskanen played 79 games at 25:29 and had 62 assists, covering 3.66 miles a game, the 99th percentile. He is the rare defenceman who scores more from beyond 40 feet than inside it.

Esa Lindell finished plus-29 on 10 penalty minutes in all 82 games at 19:55. Ryan Suter played all 82 at 20:23 at 38, at the 4th percentile in top speed and 80 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet.

Jani Hakanpää is 6-7 and finished plus-18 with a 100.4 mph shot, the 98th percentile, and one goal on 59 shots from beyond 40 feet. Nils Lundkvist played 60 games at 23. Colin Miller has gone to New Jersey.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-five minutes a night at twenty-four, and the fourth percentile in top speed at thirty-eight beside him.

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.