Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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10

Ty Dellandrea

Dallas Stars Center

Twenty-seven NHL games in two years, then all 82 and fifty-four penalty minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21DAL26325023200319.712:29
2021-22DAL1000-1000010.010:37
2022-23DAL8291928+954002929.814:12
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—109122133+8772021249.713:45

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 19 assists in all 82 games, plus-9, 54 penalty minutes, 14:12 a night.

He had played 27 NHL games in the two years before it.

48.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 40th percentile, with his ice at 42-42 against an expectation of 37.55-39.53. Five better than the chances at one end and three better at the other, which for a third-line centre in a first full season is a good result.

Three seasons, 109 games, 33 points.

The Finesse Game

92 shots at a median of 24 feet, 38 per cent from inside twenty.

Inside forty: 72 shots, eight goals, 11.11 per cent. Beyond forty: 18 shots, one.

11 tip-ins in the shot-type record from a player taking 92 shots. He goes to the net.

85.7 mph at the 15th percentile. The shot is a weakness and it is why 92 shots produced nine goals rather than fifteen.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 185, and light for the height. 22.6 mph at the 66th percentile with 2.0 bursts over twenty a game at the 85th — he gets to speed often, which is the tracking line of a forechecking third-line centre.

2.34 miles a game at the 33rd percentile. Short shifts at pace.

54 penalty minutes in 82 games is a high rate for a fourteen-minute forward and it is the physical half of the report: he finishes checks, he is on the puck first, and at 185 pounds he takes some penalties doing it.

The Intangibles

13th overall in 2018 out of Flint, and four years before a full season arrived.

He is 23, has one NHL year, and it was a competent one on a Conference Final club. The first-round pedigree suggests more; nothing in the record so far demands it, and a reliable third-line centre who kills penalties is a perfectly good outcome for a thirteenth pick.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “he finishes checks, he is on the puck first, and at 185 pounds he takes some penalties doing it”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “a reliable third-line centre who kills penalties is a perfectly good outcome for a thirteenth pick”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “he gets to speed often, which is the tracking line of a forechecking third-line centre”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 985 minutes

Expected goals
48.7%
40th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.4%
64th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 42 against. Expected: 37.5 and 39.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
40th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
71st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.95 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.34 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.7 mph
40th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 985 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
DAL took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.7% — 3.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 985 minutes at five-on-five — 57th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Wyatt Johnston49.5%48.0%50.1%
Miro Heiskanen49.7%48.1%54.5%
Jani Hakanpää49.2%48.4%48.9%

49.5% together, 48.0% for him apart and 50.1% for Johnston apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

132 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 15% from beyond forty.