Dallas Stars

Central Division, Western Conference · 24 reports in the 2026-27 edition.

The club

2025-26 · 82 games · 242 for, 193 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 47.5% 27th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 50.5% 13th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 8.60 3rd of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.01 12th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +13.4 6th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +15.8 6th of 32

Dallas Stars scored 13.4 more goals than their chances were worth and got 15.8 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — 29 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.3; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 15.8%; of skater points
From under 26: 27.2%; of skater points
Homegrown: 62.2%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 81.4%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

27th in shot attempts and 13th in chances — a club that hands you the perimeter on purpose and gives up the fourth-fewest expected goals in the league doing it.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

The book

19th of 32

The numbers

14th of 32

The two place this roster within 5 spots of one another. Every report underneath was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars rank this club among the 32 in the edition. The report bar is the mean of its players' grades, weighted by the five-on-five minutes each of them played; the numbers bar is their expected-goal share on the same weighting. It counts 20 of the 24 reports on this roster — the rest have no five-on-five record long enough to weigh — and it reads the roster as it stands rather than the club's own last season.

Who the words reach 19 of 24 · 93% of the five-on-five minutes who is left out (5)

The bars above counted every man on the roster with enough ice time to weigh. The paragraphs name whoever they name, and no rule says who that should be — so this says who it was, over the write-up as a whole. Each section below reaches far fewer than this, which is the figure that matters: the section is where the selection happens, and the count sits under each one. The share is of the five-on-five minutes played by the 20 men on this roster who have a measured record.

Not named: Kyle Burroughs, Kyle Capobianco, Arttu Hyry, Joel Kiviranta, Tyler Seguin.

Who this names 6 of 24 on the roster · 29% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Oskar Bäck, Lian Bichsel, Kyle Burroughs, Kyle Capobianco, Casey DeSmith, Matt Duchene, Radek Faksa, Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz, Justin Hryckowian, Arttu Hyry, Wyatt Johnston, Joel Kiviranta, Nils Lundkvist, Tyler Myers, Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin, Sam Steel.

What the Quant Says

A club that has decided what it will not do. Dallas ranked 27th in shot-attempt share and 4th in the league at preventing expected goals — it hands you the perimeter on purpose and concedes almost nothing from the middle, and 226 goals against is the reward.

On top of that sits 13.4 goals of finishing above expectation, 6th, and 15.8 goals of goaltending above the chances faced, 6th. 3rd on the power play, 8th on the kill. The one caution is concentration: 27 of one forward's 45 goals came on the man advantage, and a club leaning this hard on special teams is more exposed in a spring where the whistles go away.

What the Scout Says

A club with a single, clearly stated method and personnel chosen to execute it: concede the outside, take away the middle, and let the goaltender see the puck. Miro Heiskanen is the whole structure — the best skating defenceman in this book, effortless and 4-directional, retrieving pucks he has no business reaching, and never beaten to one. Esa Lindell blocks shots, kills, and does not get beaten wide. Jake Oettinger is 6-6 behind them, and against a defence that funnels shots outside it is close to an ideal pairing.

Up front the roster is skilled and, apart from 1 man, not heavy. Mikko Rantanen is enormous and skilled, which is the rarest combination in the sport, and he is the reason the top line is hard to play against. Jamie Benn has moved closer to the net and stopped pretending, and is one of the few forwards here who is difficult to move once he arrives. Colin Blackwell finishes checks on men who outweigh him by 40 pounds. Beyond those 3, this is a club that wins by being in the right place rather than by taking it.

Who this names 8 of 14 forwards · 70% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Colin Blackwell, Radek Faksa, Arttu Hyry, Joel Kiviranta, Tyler Seguin, Sam Steel.

What the Quant Says

279 goals from a team that ranks 22nd in creating chances, which works because Dallas finished 13.4 goals above expectation, 6th in the league — and because the power play did an unusual amount of the work.

Jason Robertson scored 45 goals and 96 points at the 89th percentile in chance share, the best of any forward here. Wyatt Johnston also scored 45 — but 27 of them on the power play, with an even-strength chance share in the middle of the pack, which is the single most important caveat in this section. Mikko Rantanen put up 77 points in 64 games. The depth shoots from the right places: Justin Hryckowian, undrafted, took 58 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet for 14 goals as a rookie, and Oskar Bäck took two-thirds of his from inside 20, a median of 15 feet. Jamie Benn sits 8 points short of 1,000.

What the Scout Says

Skill in unusual concentration, and a shared understanding of where to shoot from. Jason Robertson is not fast and has never been fast, and his passing is genuinely first-line rather than a by-product of good linemates; he goes to the net front and stays there. Mikko Rantanen protects the puck on the wall with his back to a defenceman and waits, and the pass that comes out is usually the one nobody else saw. Roope Hintz is one of the faster large men in the league and arrives before the check does, and the playmaking has become the larger half of him.

Wyatt Johnston scores from the slot and almost nowhere else, converting from the best ice in hockey at a rate almost nobody matches — he wins position rather than battles, and he is not the man who makes room for himself. Matt Duchene was a burner who scored off the rush and is now a slot player who scores off other people's work, and the transition is complete. Jamie Benn does the same job from a smaller area than he used to. What stands out about this club is how universal that instinct is: even Justin Hryckowian, who is not large, goes to the net, and it gives him the best shot chart on the roster.

Who this names 6 of 8 defencemen · 95% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Kyle Burroughs, Kyle Capobianco.

What the Quant Says

The method, and the best thing about this club. 7th in the league in even-strength expected goals against at 2.53 per 60, while ranking 27th in shot-attempt share. Dallas concedes the puck and concedes the perimeter, and gives up almost nothing from the middle.

Esa Lindell is the clearest illustration in this book: 53.1 per cent of the expected goals, 78th percentile, on only 48.1 per cent of the shot attempts, 36th. He played more of those minutes than anyone, was plus-30, and has never been an All-Star. Miro Heiskanen plays 25:28 a night. The exception is Thomas Harley — 23:03 a night, paid and deployed as a top-pair defenceman, and the only regular here whose expected goals ran against him, 55.0 to 58.9 across 1,372 minutes. Lian Bichsel is 6-7 at 22. Tyler Myers was minus-23.

What the Scout Says

One of the great defensive structures, built around one man's range. Miro Heiskanen exits his own zone by simply leaving with the puck, and his defending works because he is never beaten to one — which is precisely the part a heavy series tests, since he is not clearing anybody from in front of his own net. Esa Lindell is the method stated plainly: minimal by design, a first pass and nothing else, blocking shots and refusing to be beaten wide.

Thomas Harley is the third skater and the one whose game does not fit the pattern — at his best carrying the puck out, beating a forechecker by going through the space rather than around it, and worked out of the way in front of his own net by a heavy winger, which on a team built to defend the middle is the wrong weakness to have. The size is arriving from 2 directions. Lian Bichsel is 6-7 and can skate, which is worth developing patiently on a club that expects to matter in spring. Tyler Myers is 6-8, breaks up a rush by extending an arm, takes up more space in front of his own net than anyone, and cannot recover when beaten — which forwards have known for a decade. Nils Lundkvist moves it early and safely almost every time.

The roster

Evidence 18 Full 5 Light 1 No record

No measured season behind one man: Kyle Burroughs. His page carries an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2025-26.

Oskar Bäck

#10

C · Dallas Stars

Two-thirds of his shots from inside 20 feet, and a median of 15.

Jamie Benn

#14

LW · Dallas Stars

1,252 games, 992 points, and 8 to go.

Lian Bichsel

D · Dallas Stars

6-7, 237 pounds, 21 years old.

Colin Blackwell

#15

C · Dallas Stars

5-8, a 194th overall, and 368 NHL games.

Kyle Burroughs

#28

D · Dallas Stars

39 penalty minutes in under 8 minutes a night.

Kyle Capobianco

#20

D · Dallas Stars

107 games across 8 seasons, and not 1 shot from inside 20 feet.

Casey DeSmith

G · Dallas Stars

Undrafted, and he out-saved the starter on the same defence.

Matt Duchene

#95

C · Dallas Stars

1,195 games, and 54 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet.

Radek Faksa

#12

C · Dallas Stars

766 games of defensive-zone faceoffs, and the 11th percentile.

Thomas Harley

#55

D · Dallas Stars

23 minutes a night, 30 assists, and numbers that do not match the ice time.

Miro Heiskanen

D · Dallas Stars

25 and a half minutes a night on the fourth-best defensive team in the league.

Roope Hintz

#24

C · Dallas Stars

55 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, and the 89th percentile.

Justin Hryckowian

#49

C · Dallas Stars

Undrafted, 14 goals as a rookie, and 58 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet.

Arttu Hyry

RW · Dallas Stars

20 games, 3 goals, and 5 points in his last 10.

Wyatt Johnston

#53

C · Dallas Stars

45 goals, 27 of them on the power play, and the 13th percentile at even strength.

Joel Kiviranta

#22

LW · Dallas Stars

The 99th percentile in Colorado, and 9 points to show for it.

Esa Lindell

#23

D · Dallas Stars

Plus 30, 766 games, and the quietest important player in this book.

Nils Lundkvist

D · Dallas Stars

A first-round pick, 5 seasons, and 55 points to show for 235 games.

Tyler Myers

#57

D · Dallas Stars

6-8, 1,139 games, and minus 23.

Jake Oettinger

#29

G · Dallas Stars

A career .910, a season at .899, and a finish at .876.

Mikko Rantanen

#96

RW · Dallas Stars

77 points in 64 games, and the 11th percentile in shot attempts.

Jason Robertson

#21

LW · Dallas Stars

45 goals, 96 points, and the best on-ice rate of any forward here.

Tyler Seguin

#91

C · Dallas Stars

1,016 games, and 27 of them last season.

Sam Steel

C · Dallas Stars

491 games of being the fourth-line centre a good team needs.

How they were used

2025-26 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.